36 Asia The Economist May 14th 2022
lian National University (anu). Turnout
should be plummeting. But voting in Aus
tralia is compulsory. Citizens face a famil
iar choice between the incumbent Liberals,
who govern in a permanent conservative
coalition with the smaller National Party,
and the opposition, Labor.
Big ideas tend not to win elections in
Australia, so neither side has put forward
many. Both are led by “uncharismatic mid
dleaged white males who are not exactly
inspiring”, says Paul Williams, a political
scientist at Griffith University in Brisbane.
Many Australians find their prime minis
ter, Scott Morrison, cringeinducing. He is
accused of lying and bullying by members
of his own party. Yet he still ranks above La
bor’s gaffeprone leader, Anthony Alba
nese, in polls of Australia’s preferred prime
minister. Mr Albanese has been pilloried
for forgetting basic numbers including the
unemployment rate.
Still, Mr Morrison’s coalition seems un
likely to return for a fourth term. It has
been in government since 2013, and unless
opinion polls are spectacularly wrong,
Australians want it gone. (Mr Morrison
confounded expectations at the previous
election in 2019, winning a “miracle” victo
ry. Pundits insist that will not happen
twice.) One national count predicts a swing
against the coalition of more than 5%,
enough to lose 13 seats in the House of Rep
resentatives, where it has a majority of
one. No government has had a majority in
the Senate, which is elected on a system of
proportional representation, for years.
To many, the government’s successes
against covid19 feel like ancient history.
Inflation is rising and so are interest rates.
Mr Morrison’s odds have not been helped
by successive scandals. His government
has been buffeted by two separate allega
tions of rape, against a former minister and
a political staff member. It has pumped
grants into marginal constituencies, feed
ing complaints about corruption.
Labor, for its part, is “packed with poli
ticians who stuffed up in its last govern
ment”, argues John Wanna of anu. It lost
the election of 2019 after proposing re
forms to taxes on housing and investment.
Its promises now are less controversial. Mr
Albanese wants cheaper child care, better
nursing homes and a commission to inves
tigate federal corruption. On climate
change, he would set a goal to slash emis
sions by 43% by 2030, from 2005 levels—a
big improvement on the coalition’s 26
28%. On the economy, some of his ideas
seem likely to fan inflation: he wants to
raise minimum wages by over 5%.
Australians are deserting both main
parties in growing numbers. Support for
them is at historic lows, says William
Bowe, a political analyst. Perhaps a third of
voters will back minor parties and inde
pendent candidates this time. Few of those
will win seats. But a new set of climatefo
cused independents stands a chance.
These “teal” candidates—socalled for
the colour of their campaign materials—
are vying for wealthy Liberal seats, where
voters are fed up with the government’s
dismal efforts on climate change and want
to clean up politics. Their campaigns are
heavy on vision and light on detail: they
would strive for stiffer emissions cuts and
“integrity” in politics. Their supporters
have built enthusiastic grassroots move
ments around them. One independent
candidate, Zali Steggall, ousted a former
Liberal prime minister, Tony Abbott, in
2019.TheLiberalscouldloseatleasttwo
moreseatstoindependentsinthiselec
tion, Mr Bowe predicts. They are bank
rolled, in part, by Climate 200, a political
action group established by Simon Holmes
à Court, the son of a mining billionaire.
A hung parliament, in which indepen
dents and minor parties hold the balance
of power is possible, believes Kosmos Sa
maras, a former Labor strategist. That
would give them leverage to pursue their
lofty goals, their fans say. It would also
cause “chaos and instability”, Mr Morrison
argues. The latest polls, however, show La
bor extending its lead. It could win enough
seats to form a respectable majority in the
lower house. That would boost the
strengthofgovernment.Butitisunlikely
tolightenAustralians’dourmood. n
NorthKoreaandthevirus
State of emergency
F
or morethan two years, North Korea
insisted that its border controls had
kept covid19 out of the country even as it
devastated most of the rest of the globe. No
longer. On May 12th state media said that
the country had recorded its first cases of
the Omicron variant a few days earlier.
Pyongyang was locked down on May 10th.
Even for a country accustomed to bad
news, the outbreak is disastrous. North Ko
rea’s response to the pandemic was to close
itself off from the world, reduce imports to
a trickle and impose domestic travel re
strictions. While other countries rushed to
vaccinate their people, North Korea gam
bled that it could ride out the storm. It re
peatedly declined offers of vaccines from
China, Russia and covax, a unbacked glo
bal effort to supply shots to poor countries.
The leadership was reluctant to allow
health workers into the country, for fear
they might spread the virus or gather infor
mation about the dire conditions inside
the closed dictatorship. It may have been
spooked by rumours of doubts about the
safety of the vaccine made by AstraZeneca,
offered through covax.
Whatever the reasons for the vaccine
hesitancy, the approach always looked du
bious. There was no guarantee that the vi
rus would evolve to be less dangerous over
time, rather than become more infectious
and harder to manage, as turned out to be
the case. China’s pursuit of a zerocovid
strategy was designed to buy time while it
vaccinated its population. Though the
North Korean leadership blamed those
tasked with keeping the virus out for their
“carelessness, laxity, irresponsibility and
incompetence”, the real folly was the lead
ership’s failure to set up a vaccination pro
gramme in the time it had bought.
North Koreans will now suffer the con
sequences. Omicron is not especially dan
gerous in vaccinated populations, but still
deadly for the immunologically naive.
Hong Kong, which had a poor vaccination
rate among the elderly when the variant
hit, is a case in point. In late January its
death toll stood at 205. Within two months
it had climbed to nearly 8,000 after an
Omicron outbreak spread like wildfire.
North Korea is likely to do even worse.
The impoverished dictatorship lacks the
testing and tracing infrastructure that oth
er countries have built over the past two
S EOUL
The leadership at last admits to an outbreak of covid-19 within its borders
Going up