The Economist May 14th 2022 Asia 37
B
efore theirrout by Americanled
forces in 2001, the Taliban and their
rule in Afghanistan were bywords for
medieval violence, bigotry and misogy
ny. When they swept back to power in
August as America effected a calamitous
withdrawal, their leadership promised
that a new and improved Taliban had
come to run the country. Peace and har
mony would prevail. They would show
mercy to enemies and concern for the
vulnerable. They would manage the
economy well. And they would engage
with other countries, including their
former enemy.
Instead, the Taliban are reverting to
form. In March teenage girls returning to
class for the first day of the school year
found the gates closed to them, guarded
by armed men. On May 8th the Ministry
for the Propagation of Virtue ordered all
Afghan women to cover themselves from
head to toe on (discouraged) trips out
side the home.
Violence against the Hazaras, a Shia
Muslim ethnic minority, is mounting;
the Taliban, who are Sunni, do not care to
protect them. Political opponents are
being assassinated. Meanwhile, Taliban
administrators are studies in incompe
tence, having never managed water
supplies or power plants. The economy
has collapsed. Nine out of ten house
holds are facing hunger, and unagencies
estimate that over half the population of
some 40m will need food aid this year.
All of which sharpens questions
about how other countries should deal
with the government in Kabul. None has
yet offered full diplomatic recognition.
Western countries defined early on the
prerequisites of engagement with the
Taliban: improvements in human rights
and governance. These parameters have
appealing clarity; equally clear is that the
Taliban have fallen short. In the West
scepticism about engagement runs deep.
But as the eu’s special envoy to Afghani
stan, Tomas Niklasson, argues, to cut and
run would be worse. Afghans badly need
humanitarian aid and the Taliban are, in
this respect, pragmatic enough to allow it.
Among Afghanistan’s neighbours, Iran
welcomed the American withdrawal and
accredited Taliban officials performing
consular duties in Tehran. But distrust of
the Taliban goes back decades, and irrita
tion has grown over the group’s mis
treatment of Shias and its failure to pre
vent fatal bombings at several Shia
mosques. Clashes between security forces
at the border have alarmed both countries.
The Taliban’s relations with Pakistan
are deteriorating, too. The armyled estab
lishment in Pakistan had, after all, nur
tured the Taliban for decades, and expect
ed gratitude. Instead, the Taliban have
been contesting the border line and give
shelter to TehreekeTaliban Pakistan
(ttp), a terrorist group that has been step
ping up its attacks on the Pakistani securi
ty forces. Last month crossborder air
strikes by Pakistan on supposed ttp
camps killed dozens of Afghan civilians.
Uzbekistan, to the north, faces per
haps the greatest challenge from an
intransigent Taliban, with which it has
sought a working relationship. In the
short term its efforts have paid off, with
the border crossing at Termez now the
main supply route for humanitarian aid
to flow into Afghanistan. Without such
aid, Afghans would be in even worse
shape. Uzbekistan is also supplying
much of the impoverished country’s
electricity, though it gets paid irregularly.
Uzbekistan’s desire for an open,
prosperous Afghanistan is almost exis
tential. It is one of only two countries in
the world that is not only landlocked
itself, but surrounded by landlocked
countries, too. Its chief trade routes run
via Russia to Europe. But with war in
Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, that
outlet will be fraught if not impassable
for years. Uzbekistan has drawn up plans
for a transAfghan railway linking to
Pakistan’s ports, but the Taliban’s mis
rule makes crucial support from the
World Bank and others inconceivable.
As well as hosting the ttp, the Taliban
are presiding over a resurgence of al
Qaeda on Afghan soil—the very group
that triggered the American invasion two
decades ago. Riven by factions and with a
shaky grip on some parts of the country,
the Taliban have also failed to suppress
the Afghan affiliate of Islamic State, a
violent rival. Afghanistan is ripe for the
wholesale export of terrorists again.
Last month Haibatullah Akhunzada,
the de facto head of state, called on coun
tries to engage with Afghanistan on the
basis of “mutual respect.” He seeks for
mal recognition and diplomatic rela
tions. That is not going to happen until
other states get a bit of respect back.
The Taliban crave recognition but refuse to do anything to earn it
Banyan Oneway street
years. Its healthcare sector suffered from
serious underinvestment even before the
pandemic. It does not have enough equip
ment and medical staff. Hospitals do not
have regular power, clean water or proper
sanitation. Two years of closed borders
have depleted supplies of medicine, much
of which is imported. It is unclear how
much oxygen or how many ventilators the
country has available. And preexisting
conditions make North Koreans especially
susceptible to covid19. Tuberculosis,
which worsens the effects of the virus, is
rampant. So is malnutrition.
North Korea may turn to China, but its
patron is already busy struggling to salvage
its own failing zerocovid policy. If North
Korea can be convinced to accept help from
South Korea, the new president, Yook Suk
yeol, could make good on his promise that
he would provide humanitarian aid “re
gardless of the circumstance”. North Korea
has in the past organised successful mass
vaccination campaigns, notably against
measles in 2007, and it has the coldchain
distribution infrastructure necessary to
keep vaccines from spoiling. If enough
doses were offered and allowed to be ad
ministered, many lives could be saved.
The irony is that North Korea might
have been better off had it let covid spread
early in the pandemic when the virus was
less infectious (while also jabbing people).
Had it done so, the curve of the epidemic
would have been flatter and less hard to
cope with today. The bestcase scenario
would be if there have been far more cases
in the country than the government has
previously admitted, meaning that there is
some immunity in the population. For
once, North Koreans should hopethattheir
leaders have been lying to them.n