The Economist May 14th 2022 43
Middle East & Africa
Zimbabwe
Savings and groan
“N
either a borrowernor a lender
be” may occasionally be the right
answer in a quiz about Shakespeare. It is no
way to run a bank. Nonetheless, on May 7th
President Emmerson Mnangagwa decreed
that Zimbabwe’s banks should cease lend
ing indefinitely. Whether he means it, and
how this rule will be enforced, “I have no
idea,” says a banker. She and her colleagues
are desperately trying to find out.
The rationale appears to be that people
have been borrowing money to bet against
the Zimbabwe dollar. Others suspect that
Mr Mnangagwa wants a scapegoat for the
mess his country is in, and bashing bank
ers pleases voters. “It is absolute madness,”
says Tendai Biti, an opposition politician
and former finance minister. “Finance is
the oxygen of industry. The business of
banking is lending.” Banning it is uncon
stitutional, he adds.
“It’s a crazy environment,” says a local
economist. Inflation is 152%, estimates
Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University.
In February 2019 an American dollar was
officially worth 2.5 Zimbabwe dollars. Now
the main official rate is around 160 and the
black market rate is between 350 and 450.
No one trusts the local currency. Many ex
pect a return of hyperinflation, which rav
aged the country between 2007 and 2009.
Prices were rising so quickly in 2008 that
statisticians could not keep up, but by one
estimate inflation peaked at a mindbog
gling 231,000,000%.
The president’s response has been er
ratic. He blames “economic hitmen” and
“saboteurs” for the country’s distress. He
has slapped fines on firms that refuse to ac
cept the local currency, and sometimes
says he will ban the use of the American
dollar entirely. Now he is imposing curren
cy controls, and a confusing list of other
rules, to “stabilise” the economy. None of
this has persuaded Zimbabweans to em
brace the Zimbabwe dollar.
A farm worker called Jealous is on
strike. He has one demand: to be paid in us
dollars. Asked why, he gives a simple ex
planation: “When we go to the shops, they
ask for dollars.” Nearby, a field of ripe blue
berries sits unpicked in the sun. A refriger
ated building that should be buzzing with
people packing fruit into boxes for export
is empty and silent. If the strike is not re
solved, the fruit may rot. Similar stoppages
have afflicted farms across the country.
If hyperinflation returns, it will be the
government’s fault. Mr Mnangagwa, who
seized power in a coup in 2017 and won a
dodgy election the next year, has been
spending far more than Zimbabwe can af
ford and ordering the central bank to print
money to plug the gaps. Much of this goes
on infrastructure—some of Zimbabwe’s
roads have improved on his watch. But a
hefty share is stolen.
Moneyprinting drives inflation, which
saps the Zimbabwe dollar’s value. Mean
while, Mr Mnangagwa insists on skewed
exchange rates. Exporters must typically
surrender 40% of their proceeds at the
confiscatory official rate. A lucky few can
H ARARE
With inflation surging, an inept regime orders banks to stop lending
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