The Economist - USA (2022-05-14)

46 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistMay14th 2022

AlgeriaandMorocco

The danger of lightinga gasfire

T

heseshouldbeheadytimesforthe

world’s tenth­largest producer of natu­

ral  gas.  Russia’s  invasion  of  Ukraine  has

sent  European  governments  scrambling

for new supplies. Algeria sends more than

80%  of  its  gas  exports  to  Europe.  Most  is

piped  to  Spain  and  Italy  (see  map).  As  the

continent’s  third­biggest  supplier,  it

should be investing in new capacity to pro­

duce  and  transport  more  of  the  stuff.  In­

stead it is threatening to send less.

Last  year  Algeria  shut  a  pipeline  that

runs to Spain via Morocco. The closure was

an  act  of  pique  towards  Morocco,  which

takes 7% of the flow as a royalty and gets al­

most  all  of  its  natural  gas  from  Algeria.

Spain  still  receives  Algerian  exports

through  a  smaller  undersea  pipeline  that

bypasses  Morocco.  However,  last  month

Algeria  threatened  to  close  that,  too,  after

Morocco  asked  Spain  to  send  it  gas  by  re­

versing the flow of the now­idle Morocco­

Spain  pipeline.  Algeria  said  it  would  stop

all gas exports to Spain if it did so.

That  may  well  be  bluster:  Algeria  does

not want to lose Spanish cash. In any case,

Algeria’s inflammatory talk has much to do

with its troubled domestic politics. But the

threats are exacerbating Algeria’s long feud

with  Morocco.  Well­connected  Algerians

say  the  stand­off  with  their  neighbour

could even tip into war. 

Tensions  between  the  two  countries

date back to 1963, when they fought a brief

“sand war” over a strip of borderland a year

after Algeria had won independence from

France.  Since  then,  ideological  rivalry  has

deepened. Morocco is a conservative, pro­

Western monarchy, whereas Algeria was a

prominent  member  of  the  Non­Aligned

Movement  and  friendly  to  the  Soviet  Un­

ion. The land border between the two has

been closed since 1994, to the joy of smug­

glers and the annoyance of everyone else. 

In  the  1970s  Algeria  began  backing  the

Polisario  Front,  a  guerrilla  group  seeking

independence  for  Western  Sahara,  which

Morocco  grabbed  in  1975  after  the  depar­

ture  of  Spain,  its  colonial  ruler.  The  deci­

sion  to  close  the  pipeline  is  linked  to

events in Western Sahara, where Morocco

has  been  gaining  ground  both  militarily

and diplomatically.

It  may  not  mean  immediate  pain  for

Morocco’s economy. About 60% of its ener­

gy comes from oil. Two gas­fired plants are

switched on only to handle peak demand.

Officials  have  discussed  buying  cargoes

from Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of

liquefied  natural  gas.  Morocco  has  issued

tenders for a regasification plant. It is also

pushing ahead with renewables.

Lately Algeria’s grievances have grown.

International news organisations reported

last year that Morocco had used Pegasus, a

powerful spyware tool made by Israel’s nso

Group,  to  snoop  on  the  phones  of  some

6,000 Algerians, including politicians and

generals. Morocco denies this.

Mindful of Algeria’s support for Polisa­

rio,  Morocco’s  ambassador  at  the  un has

called for self­determination in Kabylie, a

restive  mainly  Berber  region  of  northern

Algeria. Algeria saw this as a threat. It even

blamed  Morocco  for  devastating  wildfires

lastsummer.KingMohammedofMorocco

triedtolowerthetemperaturelastyear,

callingfordialogueinhisannualspeech

fromthethrone.ButAlgeriaseemsless

keenonreconciliation.

Algeriaisinabadway.Amovement

calledthehirakledproteststhatresultedin

theoverthrowthreeyearsagoofAbdelaziz

Bouteflika after 20 years in power. The

protestershadhopedthatanewgenera­

tionofleaderswouldemerge.Insteadhis

fallonlyformalisedtheruleofLePouvoir, a

cliqueofgreymenwhorantheshowfrom

theshadowsthroughoutBouteflika’slong

rule.Theyhavedonelittletoreforma hide­

boundeconomyor cleanupcorruption.

Unemploymentisaround12%,andhigher

fortheyoung.Inflationhit8.5%lastyear.

AcrisiswithMoroccoisa waytorally

increasingly frustrated Algerians. Both

sidesseemgearedupforconflict.Algeria

andMoroccohavethesecond­andthird­

largestarmiesinAfrica. Withadefence

budget of$9.1bn, Algeria is the world’s

sixth­biggest arms importer. Morocco

spent$5.4bnonitsarmedforceslastyear,

upbyabouta thirdfrom2019.Itranksin

theworld’stoptenformilitaryspendingas

a  share  of  gdp; Algeria’s  is  5.6%  versus

4.2%  for  Morocco.  Algerians,  however,

sound less keen on conflict than their lead­

ers do. Younger ones may prefer their gov­

ernment to focus on jobs and the economy

rather than rattle sabres at its neighbour.

Europeans,  too,  are  wary  of  events

across  the  Mediterranean.  Last  year  Spain

got  more  than  40%  of  its  natural­gas  im­

ports  from  Algeria.  A  rupture  would  hit

hard,  just  when  energy  prices  are  already

sky­high. The Ukrainian war has prompted

Spain to forswear Russian gas. It cannot af­

ford  to  lose  another  supplier.  On  top  of

that, a conflictbetween nearby Arabs could

mean a waveofmigrants. In short, nobody

would benefit.n

D UBAI

Algeria hopes a crisis with Morocco will distractfromproblemsathome

MALI

LIBYA

PORTUGAL

MOROCCO

ITALY

ALGERIA

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Pipelineclosed

Mediterranean Sea

WESTERN

SAHARA

S N

FRANCE

Polisario-held

territory

Kabylie T I

500 km

Main gas pipelines

(March 2022)

Source: Entsog

Wending their wiggly way to Europe