The Economist - USA (2022-05-14)

48 Europe TheEconomistMay14th 2022

take  over  part  of  Ukraine’s  allocation  of

special drawing rights at the fund, in effect

channelling  hard  currency  to  the  govern­

ment in Kyiv. But the end result of all these

appeals  is  that,  for  the  second  quarter  of

this  year,  Ukraine  has  so  far  totted  up

grants totalling only about $4.5bn, against

a fiscal shortfall of $15bn.

This is not sustainable, admits Mr Mar­

chenko, who fears that if the war lasts more

than another “three or four months”, pain­

ful  measures  will  be  needed,  involving

huge  tax  rises  and  swingeing  spending

cuts. The real fear is that what has become

in recent years a fairly market­driven, free­

wheeling economy might see a wave of na­

tionalisations,  undoing  years  of  hard­

fought progress.

An even more immediate problem is al­

ready, literally, sprouting.Acrossthecoun­

try,  the  sowing  seasonforthisyear’scrop

of  wheat,  barley,sunflowers(foroil)and

other grains andstapleshasbeencomplet­

ed. Astonishingly,roughly80%oftheusu­

al  crop  has  goneintotheground,some­

times  planted  bybravefarmers wearing

bulletproof  vests.Butwhattodowithit?

Harvesting  shouldbe nogreatproblem,

since the frontlineshavebeenpushedback

and Russia looksunlikelytomakefurther

gains.  The  hardpartisshippingthestuff

out of the country.

The presenceoftheRussiannavyinthe

Black Sea, as wellasthedefensivedeploy­

ment  of  mines  byUkraine’snavy,means

that  Odessa,  Ukraine’s principalport, is

shut  down  completely.Thesamegoesfor

its second and thirdports,locatednearby.

Berdyansk  and  Mariupol,thefourthand

fifth,  are  underRussiancontrol.Norcan

much  grain  be  stored;thecountry’sgrain

silos are mostly fulloftherecentlyharvest­

ed  winter  crop, which would normally

have been sent abroadbynow.

Mustafa  Nayyem, aformerjournalist

and  protester  turnedUkraine’sdeputyin­

frastructure minister,isinchargeofsolv­

ing the problem.Ifthegraincannotgetout

by sea, it will havetotravelbyroadandrail,

via Poland, RomaniaandHungary.Butpro­

blems  abound,  hesays.Theroadscannot

handle  that  muchheavytraffic;thealter­

native ports havelimitedsparecapacity.

Worst  of  all,crossingUkraine’sfron­

tiers with the euisarduous.Customsand

phytosanitary  checksarealreadycausing

10km  tailbacks  atentrypoints.Theclub’s

rules say that, sinceUkraineisnota mem­

ber, only a limitednumberofitslorriescan

enter.  Bureaucracy is gumming up the

works, and unlesstheyareunblockedUk­

raine,  Europe  andindeedtheworldwill

face severe food shortagesaftertheharvest

in  September.  “Weneedeverycountryin

Europe to allowfreeaccesstoourtrucks,”

says the minister.“Theydon’tseemtoun­

derstand the sheeramountofwheatthatis

about to hit them.”n

Russia

Putin’s parade

T

heruleofVladimirPutin,aformer

kgboperativeturneddictator,restson

lies,violenceandmilitarism.AndonMay

9th, thedaymarkingtheSovietUnion’s

victoryinthesecondworldwar,allthreeof

thosetraitswereparadedonMoscow’sRed

Square.MrPutinhaslonghijackedthevic­

toryoverNaziGermanyandbuiltitinto

somethingresemblingareligiouscultto

servehisregime.Nowheisinvokingitas

hefightshiswaragainstUkraineandany­

oneinsideRussiawhostandsinhisway.

AsBenWallace,theBritishdefencesecre­

tary,saidinaspeechofhisownonthe

sameday,MrPutinandhisgenerals“are

nowmirroringthefascismandtyrannyof

77 yearsago...resplendentintheirmani­

curedparadeuniforms,weighteddownby

thegoldbraidandglisteningmedals.”

JustastheNazisjustifiedtheirunpro­

vokedattacksonPolandin 1939 andtheSo­

vietUnionin 1941 byclaimingtobeacting

inpre­emptiveself­defence,sodidMrPu­

tinclaiminhisspeechattheparadethat

Russiahadlauncheda pre­emptivestrike

againstUkraineandnato. “Anabsolutely

unacceptablethreattouswassteadilybe­

ingcreatedrightonourborders...[theinva­

sion]wasforced,timelyandtheonlycor­

rectdecision.”

Theparadewasmorenotableforitsab­

sencesandomissionsthanforitspageant­

ry.Thereducednumberoftroopsmarch­

inginRedSquareshowedthelackofspare

capacity. The usual airforce flypast was

scrapped.Ostensiblythatwasbecauseof

lowclouds,butsomeintelligencesources

suggesteditwasreallybecauseofsecurity

concerns.Alow­flyingmilitaryplanebe­

ingshotdownbya StingermissileoverRed

Squarewouldnothavemadegoodpublici­

tyfortheregime.Suchconcernswouldnot

beoutlandish.Aseriesofmysteriousfires

andexplosionshavestruckstrategicsites

acrossRussiainrecentweeks.Thelatest

occurredonMay1stata militaryplantin

Permin theUrals,where propellantfor

GradandSmerchmissilesismade.

AlsomissingfromtheparadewasVale­

ryGerasimov,thechiefofthegeneralstaff.

Russia’stopsoldierwasspottedonMay1st

nearIzyum,thesiteofthefiercestfighting

ineasternUkraine,andhasnotbeenseen

since.Ukrainianintelligencesourcesbe­

lievehewaswoundedthere.Butperhaps

themostnotableabsencefromtheVictory

Dayparade was the victory itself. After

morethantwo months offighting even

Mariupol,a portcitythathasbeenpound­

edbyeveryconventionalweaponimagin­

able,isnotentirelyinRussia’shands.

Havinglostmoremenandequipment

intwomonthsthantheSovietUnionlost

inthetenyearsofitswarinAfghanistan,

MrPutin,anageingdictator,cuta defen­

siveandfrustratedfigure,asthoughtrying

tomakeexcusesforwhatmaywellrankas

the biggestmilitary blunder in Russia’s

history.Hisfinal“ForRussia!ForVictory!

Hurray!”seemedstrangelydownbeat.

ButthisdoesnotmeanMrPutinwillbe

stoppingsoon.Ashelaidflowersona se­

riesofwarmemorialsandfireworkdis­

playslittheskiesoverRussiancities,the

skiesovercitiesacrossUkrainewerelitup

byRussianmissiles.AlthoughRussianow

controlsthemajorityoftheeasternDon­

bas region, its offensive to take the rest of it

is proceeding slowly. A Ukrainian counter­

offensive  around  Kharkiv  has  almost

pushed  Russian  forces  back  over  the  bor­

der there, showing that Russia’s grip on its

newly acquired territory is precarious. 

Ukrainian  forces,  newly  confident,  are

also  hoping  to  liberate  Kherson  province,

TheVictoryDaythatwasn’t

→ BAFTA award

Fearless:thewomenfightingPutin,

a co-productionbetweenThe Economist

andHardcashProductionsforitv, has

wonthebafta for best current-affairs film.

It was filmed and directed by Sarah

Collinson of Economist Films