The Economist - USA (2022-05-14)

The Economist May 14th 2022 Europe 49

where  the  invaders  are  stealing  grainand
shipping  it  back  to  Russia.  Russianforces
are  also  trying  to  impose  the  rubleasthe
local currency. Yet Russia’s hold is soshaky
that  Russian  collaborators  are  saidtobe
asking  the  Kremlin  to  annex  the  territory
without  attempting  a  referendumofthe
sort that was used to justify the annexation
of Crimea in 2014. 
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreignmin­
ister,  says  that  Ukraine’s  vision  ofvictory
has  now  changed  from  pushing Russia
back  to  its  pre­war  positions  to  liberating
all of its territory, including areas seizedin

2014. To do so will require a lot moreman­
power  and  equipment  than  Ukrainecur­
rently has. Mr Putin’s plan is to digin,wear
out Ukraine militarily and strangleiteco­
nomically, by blockading its ports (seepre­
vious story). 
To  sustain  a  long  war,  Mr  Putincould
yet  declare  martial  law  to  justifya wider
mobilisation. This would not only produce
more soldiers to fight in Ukraine, butcould
also be a tool for even more repression.But
how far Mr Putin goes and how longhecan
sustain his offensive depends notonlyon
the strength of the Ukrainian armyandthe
resolve of its allies, but on Mr Putin’ssitua­
tion at home. As Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s
national  security  adviser,  told  TheEcono-
mist,  without  instability  in  Russia,itwill
be hard for Ukraine to succeed. 
Mr  Putin  has  met  fierce  resistancein
Ukraine; but he has so far been muchmore
successful in his offensive againstRussia,
demoralising  its  elite,  silencing  anycriti­
cism  and  isolating  the  country  fromthe
world. A degree of resistance to thewarhas
continued.  In  the  run  up  to  May9ththe
Russian  security  services  pre­emptively
detained  a  number  of  anti­war  activists.
On the day itself, some 125 people werede­
tained  for  carrying  signs  like  “NotoNew
War”  or  “My  Grandfather  FoughtAgainst
Fascism”.  In  another  act  of  defiance,two
editors  of  Lenta.ru,  a  pro­Kremlinnews
website,  took  over  their  own  homepage
with  the  headlines  “Vladimir  Putinlied
about Russia’s plans in Ukraine”, “TheRus­
sian  army  turned  out  to  be  an  armyof
thieves and looters” and “Russia abandons
the dead bodies of its troops in Ukraine.”
Yet the Russian elite has remainedpli­
ant, and much of the population iscowed.
“The passive silence of the medianRussian
voter and the conformism of the eliteisthe
main  resource  in  this  war,”  says  KirillRo­
gov,  a  political  analyst.  The  technocratic
elite, once deemed liberal, is paralysedby
fear of reprisals. As Petr Akopov, a Kremlin
propagandist,  wrote  this  week,  “Offshore
oligarchs and thieving officials, incompe­
tent  generals  and  cowardly  Russophobes,
‘showbiz stars’—we now have to purgeour­
selves  of  all  these.  Without  [purification]
we cannot win. Not in Ukraine, butinthat
battle for Russia that has just begun.”n

Germany

A portentora blip?

“O

fcoursetheresultisbitter,”said

SaskiaEsken,puttingitmildlyafter

thecataclysmicdefeatofherSocialDemo­

cratic Party (spd) at a stateelection in

Schleswig­HolsteinonMay8th.Yettheco­

chairofthepartyinsistedthatdespitethe

worstscoreinitshistoryina placethatwas

oncea stronghold,thespdcanstillwinthe

vote thatreallycounts, inNorthRhine­

Westphalia(nrw),Germany’smostpopu­

lousstate,onMay15th.

Thecentre­rightChristianDemocratic

Union(cdu) ofDanielGünther,theincum­

bentstatepremier,won43.4%ofthevote

inSchleswig­Holstein,upmorethan11 per­

centagepointsonthepreviouselection.

Thespdgotonly16%,downaboutthesame

amount.TheFreeDemocrats,whoarein

coalitionwiththespdatthenationallevel,

alsohada poornight.Buttheworstreverse

wassufferedbythefar­rightafd,which

waskickedoutofa stateparliamentforthe

firsttimeinitshistory(whichadmittedly

datesbackonlynineyears),asitfailedto

meet the 5% threshold for gaining any

seats.ItwasahappierdayfortheGreen

Party,alsointherulingnationalcoalition,

with18.3%,a gainof5.4points.

Thecduhadonegreatadvantage:polls

showthatMrGüntheristhecountry’smost

popularstatepremier.The48­year­oldis

verydifferentfromFriedrichMerz,thespi­

kyandconservativenationalleaderofthe

cdu. MrGüntheris acentrist who was

nicknamedGenosse(comrade)Güntherbe­

causeheoncesaidheunderstoodcdupol­

iticiansineasternGermanywhoareco­op­

eratingwiththefar­leftLinkeparty.Hehas

governedhisstateincoalitionwithboth

thefree­marketfdpandtheGreens.Hedid

notbackMrMerz’scampaigntobecome

nationalleaderofthecduin 2018 (whenhe

failed)or 2021 (whenhewon).Soa bigsuc­

cessforMrGüntherdoesnotnecessarily

indicatethatMrMerzisdoingwell.

Still,theimpressivewininSchleswig­

Holsteinundoubtedlygivesthecdua dol­

lopofpreciousmomentumasit headsinto

theeagerlywatchednrwvoteattheweek­

end.Withits18minhabitants(overa fifth

of Germany’s total population), nrw is

hometo 37 ofGermany’stop 100 compa­

nies.Itspollissometimescalledthe“little

federalelection”;witha highproportionof

immigrants and a mix of thriving and

strugglingdistricts,itisseenasa minia­

tureGermany.Whoevercanrunnrwhasa

goodshotatrunningthecountry.

NorthRhine­Westphaliausedtobethe

heartlandofthespd, whichgovernedthere

continuouslyfor 39 years,from 1966 until

2005.Sincethenithasbeena swingstate.

In 2017 thecdu’sArminLaschetbeatthe

spd’s HanneloreKraft,theincumbent.But

MrLaschetsteppeddownasstatepremier

lastyearafterhisresoundingdefeatinthe

generalelection,inwhichhewasthecdu’s

candidate for the chancellorship. He

pickedHendrikWüst,histransportminis­

ter,ashissuccessor.Alawyerbytraining,

MrWüstisclosertoMrMerz’sconservative

campthanisGenosseGünther.

Mr Wüstisnow neck­and­neckwith

ThomasKutschaty,thelargelyunknown

spdcandidatewhosemainclaimtofameis

thatheisa formerstatejusticeminister.

MrKutschatyisbettingonsupportfrom

OlafScholz,thechancellor,butthatstrat­

egymightbackfire.MrScholz’spopularity

hasslumpedinrecentweeksbecauseof

hishesitantresponsetoRussia’sinvasion

ofUkraine.Ina polllastmonthinDerSpie-

gel, a weekly,fully65%ofthosesurveyed

said they thought MrScholz was nota

strongleader.

IfMrWüstcanpulloffawinforthe

cdu,hewillprobablyremainincoalition

withthefdp. Butifthatcombinationdoes

notyielda majority,hewillneedtoper­

suadetheGreens,whoareforecasttoget

around18%ofthevote,tojoinhisgovern­

ment,too.Theymightprefertojoinforces

withthespd, inwhichcaseMrWüstcould

losehisjobevenif thecdugetsmorevotes

thananyotherparty.

MrWüst’spoliticalcareerisofcourseat

stakeonMay15th.ButMrMerz,whohim­

selfhailsfromnrw,badlyneedsa second

win.Thecdulosta stateelectioninSaar­

landattheendofMarch.Thecdu’s leader

recentlyvisitedKyiv tomeetVolodymyr

Zelensky, Ukraine’spresident,hoping to

gainanadvantageoverMrScholz,whohas

yettovisittheUkrainiancapital.MrMerz

receivednon­stopcoverageinthemedia

duringhisvisit,butalsoa lotofcriticism.

Thetrip,mostpunditsreckoned,wasan

obvious attempt to score points off Mr

Scholz aheadof thetwo state elections

ratherthan,asheclaimed,a showofsol­

idaritywithUkrainians.n

B ERLIN

TheSocialDemocrats’crushingdefeat

inSchleswig-Holstein

Red peril

Germany, Schleswig-Holstein, state-election results

% of list vote by party

Source: Schleswig-Holstein state returning ocer

2017

2022

6040200 80 100

Others

CDU Greens SPD FDP AfD