The Economist May 14th 2022 59
Business
Thetechcrunch
Pop!
A
favourite pastimein Silicon Valley,
second only to inventing the next new
thing, is bubblespotting. Even industry
insiders tend to get these things spectacu
larly wrong. “You’ll see some dead uni
corns this year,” Bill Gurley, a noted ven
ture capitalist, predicted in 2015, the year
that incubation of these startups worth
more than $1bn really got going.
The game has just become much easier:
the sound of bubbles popping can be heard
all over the place. Tech shares, initial pub
lic offerings (ipos), blankcheque compa
nies (known as spacs), startup valuations
and even cryptocurrencies: all the assets
that climbed to dizzying heights over the
past few years are now coming down to
earth. It is harder to say how loudly they
will burst—and which might still reflate.
The decline of tech shares is the most
spectacular. The ndxt, the index of the 100
largest tech firms on the Nasdaq exchange,
is down by a third since its peak in early
November. Firms in this index have lost a
combined $2.8trn in market value.
Highflying startups that went public in
recent years have been hit hard, too. The
shares of Robinhood are 80% below the
level at which the retailtrading app went
public in July 2021. Those of Peloton, which
makes internetconnected exercise bikes,
have lost over 90% of their value from their
peak. As a group, the largest newly listed
firms are worth 38% less than at the start of
the year (see chart on next page).
Small wonder that ipos have dried up.
From January to April 2021 some 150 com
panies went public in America, most of
them techie. This year only 30 have done
so. The boom in spacs, which go public and
then find a startup with which to merge,
has imploded. Of the more than 1,000 such
firms that have floated in America since
2018, only a third have merged with a tar
get. Many of those that have done deals
have lost their shine. According to an index
that tracks the 25 largest despaced vehi
cles, they have lost 56% of their value since
the beginning of the year.
As tech shares crash, they are pulling
valuations of private firms down with
them. cbInsights, a research firm, reckons
that tech startups raised $628bn globally in
2021 in more than 34,000 deals. Between
January and March this year the number of
transactions fell by 5% compared with the
previous quarter. The amount of capital in
vested dropped by 19%, the biggest quarter
ly decline since 2012. The unicorn boom’s
superstar investors have been walloped.
On May 12th SoftBank, a Japanese tech in
vestor with a penchant for risky bets, most
of which are private, reported that its flag
ship funds lost an eyewatering $33bn in
the past 12 months.
Although they were meant to reach the
Moon no matter what, cryptocurrencies
are also coming a cropper. Even some
hardened “hodlers” have been getting cold
feet. On May 12th bitcoin, the largest cryp
tocurrency, was trading below $26,000,
less than half its peak in early November.
Other digital monies have shed even more
value. The next four biggest coinshave lost
more than 70% since their peak. Nonfun
gible tokens (nfts), even more speculative
titles to digital assets such as art that can be
traded, have been hammered, too. Sales of
nfts in ether, another big cryptocurrency,
have dropped by more than half in recent
Tech bubbles are bursting. Some more loudly than others
→Alsointhissection
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62 Thesurveilledoffice
63 Bartleby:Woollywordsinbusiness
64 Schumpeter: Taming the activists