The Economist May 14th 2022 65
Finance & economics
Globalhousing
Braced for a storm
S
tocks aresinking, a costofliving cri
sis is in full swing and the spectre of glo
bal recession looms. But you wouldn’t
know it by looking at the rich world’s hous
ing markets, many of which continue to
break records. Homes in America and Brit
ain are selling faster than ever. House pric
es in Canada have soared by 26% since the
start of the pandemic. The average proper
ty in New Zealand could set you back more
than NZ$1m ($640,000), an increase of
nearly 46% since 2019.
For more than a decade homeowners
benefited from ultralow interest rates.
Now, however, changes are brewing. On
May 5th the Bank of England, having fore
cast that inflation in Britain could exceed
10% later this year, raised its policy rate for
the fourth time, to 1%. The day before
America’s Federal Reserve had increased
its benchmark rate by half a percentage
point, and hinted that more tightening
would follow. Investors expect the federal
funds rate to rise above 3% by early 2023,
more than triple its current level. Most
other central banks in the rich world, rang
ing from Canada to Australia, have either
started pressing the monetary brakes, or
are preparing to do so.
Many economists believe that a 2008
style global property crash is unlikely.
Households’ finances have strengthened
since the financial crisis, and lending stan
dards are tighter. Scarce housing supply to
gether with robust demand, high levels of
net household wealth and strong labour
markets should also support property pric
es. But the rising cost of money could make
homeowners’ existing debt burdens diffi
cult to manage by increasing their repay
ments, while putting off some prospective
buyers. If that hit to demand is big enough,
prices could start to fall.
Homeowners’ vulnerability to sharp
rises in mortgage payments varies by
country. In Australia and New Zealand,
where prices jumped by more than 20%
last year, values have got so out of hand
that they may be sensitive to even modest
rises in interest rates. In America and Brit
ain, where markets are a little less torrid,
interest rates may have to approach 4% for
house prices to fall, reckon analysts at Cap
ital Economics, a consultancy.
Alongside price levels, three other fac
tors will help determine whether the hous
ing juggernaut simply slows, or comes
crashing to a halt: the extent to which
homeowners have mortgages, rather than
own their properties outright; the preva
lence of variablerate mortgages, instead of
fixedrate loans; and the amount of debt
taken on by households.
Consider first the share of mortgage
holders in an economy. The fewer home
owners who own their properties outright,
the greater the impact of a rate rise is likely
to be. Denmark, Norway and Sweden have
relatively high shares of mortgageholders
(see table on next page). A relaxation of
Which property markets are most exposed to coming interest-rate rises?
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