The Economist May 14th 2022 Finance&economics 69
But in Australia more than twothirds do.
JPMorgan Chase, a bank, breaks down Brit
ain’s consumerprice index into 85 compo
nents, and finds that inflation rates for
69% of them are running above their 1997
2019 averages.
Inflation could also spiral if workers de
mand higher wages to compensate them
for rising prices (and firms raise their pric
es in turn). Unit labour costs, which mea
sure the relationship between what work
ers are paid and the value of what they pro
duce, are rising far faster than their long
run average in many countries. On May 5th
America’sstatisticiansrevealedthatthese
roseby7%inthefirstquarter,compared
witha yearago,upfroma prepandemic
averageofaround2%.MichaelSaundersof
theBankofEnglandhasnotedthatwith
paydealsbeingstruckatupto5%a year,
butproductivitygrowthofonlyaround1%,
Britain’sunitlabourcostgrowthisproba
bly“wellabovethepaceconsistentwith
theinflationtarget[of2%]”.
Ourlasttwo measuresassess house
holds’expectations.Thehigherthesere
main,themorelikelyit isthatinflationbe
comes embedded. One proprietary data
set,providedtoTheEconomistbyresearch
ersattheFederalReserveBankofCleve
land,MorningConsult,a consultancy,and
RaphaelSchoenleofBrandeisUniversity,
isarare reliablecrosscountrygauge of
publicinflationexpectations.InMay 2021
a respondentinthemedianrichcountry
thoughtinflationoverthenext 12 months
wouldbe2.3%.Nowtheyexpecta rateof
4.5%;Canadians, an evenhigher6%. A
measureofGooglesearchesalsosuggests
thesubjectisweighingonpeople’sminds.
Britonsnowsearch morefrequently for
“inflation”thantheydoforTaylorSwift.n
A
surewaytocauseshuddersinItal
ian economicpolicy circles is to talk
up the prospect of higher inflation. For
years subdued price pressures were the
rationale for the European Central Bank’s
superlax monetarypolicy stance. They
provided necessary cover for an array of
ecbbondbuying schemes that covertly
but effectively bailed out Italy’s huge
public debts.
Just now nerves in Rome are a little
jangled. Annual inflation across the euro
zone rose to 7.5% in April. ecbofficials
have been warming up markets for a
possible interestrate rise as soon as July.
That would first require an end to the
central bank’s main bondbuying pro
gramme. The yield on tenyear German
bunds has surged in anticipation. So has
the excess yield between riskier sorts of
government bonds, notably Italy’s btps,
and bunds. Italian bond spreads rose
above two percentage points earlier this
month (see chart).
Looked at one way, this rise is eye
catching, though not yet alarming. Italy’s
spreads are not obviously out of line with
those of corporate bonds of a similar
credit rating, allowing for differences in
maturity. Looked at another way, it is
disappointing. After all the efforts over
the past decade to make the euro zone
crisisproof, a btpbehaves not like a
bund but like an investmentgrade cor
porate bond—with spreads narrowing in
calmer times but blowing out at the whiff
of trouble.
Italy has long been the weakest big
link in the eurozone chain. It has
emerged from the pandemic with gov
ernment debt of 151% of gdp, the highest
of any large economy bar Japan (where
inflation is still quiescent). In the right
conditions, such debts are manageable.
Indeed, if Italy’s nominal gdp growth
rate can stay ahead of the interest rate it
pays, the debt burden would fall—as it did
last year, when the economy bounced back
from recession. Mario Draghi, the former
ecbchief who is now Italy’s prime min
ister, has been following what might be
called a “denominator” strategy with
regard to the debttogdpratio. He has
tapped the eu’s recovery fund, a €750bn
($790bn) pot financed by common bonds,
to finance an investment splurge with the
intention of lifting Italy’s gdp. These
funds are conditional on reforms, which
Mr Draghi has set in motion.
Inflation has upset this strategy in two
ways. First, it puts a big dent in real out
put. The sharp rise in energy prices follow
ing the invasion of Ukraine makes Italians
poorer and less able to spend on other
things. Italy’s gdpshrank in the first quar
ter. Growth forecasts have been slashed.
Second, the inflation shock has prompted
a global rethink of monetary policy and
widespread risk aversion in financial
markets. The widening in Italian spreads
is a consequence. With interest rates
rising and central banks ceasing bond
buying,capitalisbeingrationedmore
carefully.Thesafestcreditsgetfirstcall.
Riskierborrowersgetwhat’sleft.
Ifsustained,higheryieldswillover
timeraisethecosttoItalyofservicingits
debts.Borrowingcostsof3%arenot
ideal.ButItalyhaslockedinlowinterest
ratesonthestockofitsexistingdebt,
whichhasanaveragematurityofseven
years.OverthelongerhaulItalyshould
beabletomanagenominalgdpgrowth
ofatleastthat3%rate—1%realgdpplus
2%inflation,say.Indeed,thecurrent
surgeinprices,whiledeadlytoreal
output,isaddingtotheinflationpartof
nominalgdp.
A bigworryisthatspreadwidening
gainsmomentum.AndrewBallsofpim-
co, an asset manager, detects a “cusp
iness” to btpyields—meaning that when
they rise beyond a certain threshold, they
tend to attract more panicky sellers than
bargainhunting buyers, leading to even
higher yields. Anxieties about Italy’s
politics are never far from the surface. Mr
Draghi is trusted in Berlin and Brussels,
but he is due to stand down before elec
tions next spring. He may not last even
that long, since cracks are emerging in
his coalition over the war in Ukraine.
In those circumstances, the instinct is
to look to the ecbto check the widening
in spreads. But with inflation where it is,
the central bank’s continued use of tools
such as negative interest rates and asset
purchases looks improper—hence the
scramble to “normalise” monetary poli
cy. Yet inflation seems less entrenched in
the euro area than in, say, America. Wage
growth is still fairly modest, for instance.
The ecb, therefore, may not have to raise
interest rates quite as much as financial
markets are pricing in. Nervous tech
nocrats in Rome will be keeping their
fingers crossed.
ButtonwoodThe Italiansob
Anxiety about Italy’s public debts will, likethepoor,alwaysbewithus
Two steps ahead
Ten-year government-bond yields, %
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Italy
Germany
3
2
1
0
-1
2021 2022
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