The Economist - USA (2022-05-14)

76 Science & technology The Economist May 14th 2022

Scienceandinternationalpolitics

Frozen

K

nee-deepintherushing watersofa

creekinthevalleyofthePasvikriver,

PaulAspholmoftheNorwegianInstitute

ofBioeconomyResearchistryingtopre­

venta lifetime’sworkfrombeingwashed

awaybypolitics.Wadingintothefrozen

stream,hepeersthrougha watervisorand

totsuphowmanymusselshecanspotin

anarearecentlyexposedbythawingice.

Hewouldnormallycomparethesenum­

berswithsimilardatagatheredbyRussian

counterpartssplashinglikewiseinriversa

fewkilometresfarthereast.Butallcontact

withthemhasstopped.

DrAspholmhasspent 30 yearsstudying

thewildlifethatinhabitstheArcticlands

whereNorwayandRussiamarch.Hehas

neededRussianscientists’assistancefor

almosteverythinghehasdone.Together,

theyhave kepttrack ofspecies ranging

fromthearea’snativebrownbearstothe

invasivepinksalmonthataredrivingout

localtroutandsalmon,andwhichdiein

suchnumberswhentheyspawnthatbac­

teriafeedingontheircorpsesturntheriv­

erstoxicandsokillotheranimalswhich

livein ordrink those waters. They had

plannedthisautumntostarttrackingthe

migrationofelkalonganarrow“super­

highway”throughthetundra,butthewar

hasputpaidtothat.

SincetheinvasionofUkraineinFebru­

ary,tiesbetweenRussianandWesternsci­

entists have frozen. Hundreds of long­

standingpartnerships likeDr Aspholm’s

havebeenputonindefiniteholdandpro­

jectsinvolvingRussianresearchers have

either suspended their participation or

beenputoniceentirely.

This has thrown Arctic science into

chaos.MorethanhalftheArctic’scoastline

isRussian.Informationfromstationsin

SiberiaandbuoysintheArcticOceanpro­

videirreplaceabledataonclimatechange.

FieldworkintheRussianArcticgivessnap­

shotsofhowanimals,plantsandsoilsare

responding to this change. The Arctic

Council, an intergovernmental forum

whichpromotesresearchinthearea,has

beenonpausesinceearlyMarch.

In northern Norway, Dr Aspholm is

makinga leapoffaith.Laterthismonthhe

willtakehisteambacktothePasvik,which

formspartofNorway’sborderwithRussia,

for a bird­counting expedition that has

happenedeveryyearsince1995.“Wewill

tryanddoitjustlikelasttime,”hesays,

“andhopethattheRussiansshowupatthe

sametimeanddoitthesamewayon their

side.” IftheRussians do notappear,  he

worries,thereisa goodchanceanydata his

teamgatherwillbeincompletenonsense. 

Onitsown,a gapinknowledge  of  the

peregrinationsofwadersmightnotmatter

much.Butsuchlacunaeaddup.And  for

data that feed into research on climate

change,whichthetimingsofbirdmigra­

tionsdo,suchlossesareimportant.

Sanctions,saysDagRune,rector of the

Arctic University,in Tromso, “will  have

devastating consequences for Arctic  re­

search,andtheconsequencesforclimate

changeareobvious.ProjectsintheArctic”,

heobserves,“aremajoroperationsthat in­

volvemoney,equipment,travel,and this is

exactlythekindofresearchthatis  being

mostaffectedbysanctions.”

SanderVeraverbeke,a climatescientist

attheVrijeUniversiteitinAmsterdam,  is

another whose work is threatened.  He

studiesfiresintheArctic,andhad  been

planningtoresumefieldworkinnorthern

Siberiaaftertwoyearslostbecause  of  co­

vid­19.SincehewaslastinRussia,Siberia

hasbeenablaze.Thepastthreeyears have

seenrecordnumbersoffiresintheeast of

thatvastexpanseofland:nota good time,

then,fortheretobegapsinthedata.

Someworkcanbedoneusingsatellites,

orbystudyingcomparablesitesinCanada

andAlaska.Butthisgetsyouonlyso  far.

Permafrost  research,  crucial  for  under­

standing  where  climate  projections  will

end  up,  is  likely  to  suffer  in  particular.

Two­thirds of Russia is covered by perma­

frost, and this frozen ground locks up huge

amounts  of  organic  material.  As  it  melts

and  that  organic  material  decays,  green­

house  gases  in  the  form  of  methane  and

carbon dioxide are released into the atmo­

sphere. Without good data on these emis­

sions, understanding about their contribu­

tion to climate change will decline.

Something even more destructive than

a further year of lost fieldwork, however, is

the  damage  to  networks  that  have  been

knitted  painstakingly  together  since  the

cold war. Levels of formal communication

between  Western  and  Russian  scientists

have  declined  to  a  point  far  worse,  even,

than during the late 1970s and 1980s. Rus­

sian  researchers  have,  for  example,  been

“disinvited”  from  academic  conferences,

such  as  the  Arctic  science  summit  week

held at the end of March, where scientists

gather to present research, compile and as­

sess data, and discuss research priorities. 

Climates of opinion

Isolating  Russia  this  way  creates  a  dilem­

ma.  Losing  Russian  contributions  to  cli­

mate  science  in  order  to  punish  the  place

for invading Ukraine might be seen as cut­

ting off noses to spite faces. “We are miss­

ing out on almost two­thirds of the Arctic

now,” explains Dr Veraverbeke. “We have a

lot of good colleagues that we need to be in

touch with and collaborate with to have an

understanding of what is going on in Sibe­

ria.  It  is  really  impacting  our  understand­

ing of one of the most dramatically chang­

ing areas on Earth.” 

Russian science will suffer too. Russian

researchers  rely  on  the  West  not  just  for

collaboration, but also for the money that

comes with it. Of Russia’s top ten scientific

collaborators,  according  to  publication

statistics  from  Nature  Index,  a  database

that  tracks  scientific  output,  only  China

has  failed  to  impose  post­invasion  aca­

demic sanctions on Russia. There is thus a

looming funding crisis for dozens of Rus­

sian  research  and  data  stations  that  were

maintained by Western support. 

Even if things start to normalise soon, it

might  be  difficult  to  snap  back  to  how  it

was. “It will not be easy,” says Dag Olsen, at

the  Arctic  University.  “There  is  absolutely

no  trust.”  In  March  200  of  his  Russian

counterparts,  including  the  rector  of  the

Northern  Arctic  Federal  University  in  Ar­

khangelsk,  signed  a  letter  supporting  the

invasion  of  Ukraine.  In  Pasvik  valley,

meanwhile,  the  only  contact  Dr  Aspholm

has had with the Russian scientists on the

other  side  since  the  academic  curtain  fell

was  an  email  from  a  colleague  in  Karelia.

“It was an opinion about mussel distribu­

tion,” he laughs. “I am not able to reply.”n

T HE VALLEY OF THE PASVIK, NORWAY

Russian and Western scientists no longer collaborate in the Arctic.

That is bad for research into climate change

Problems in the land of the bear