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6 | FORBES ASIA JULY 2016

FORBES ASIA

SIDELINES

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Steve Forbes

A

sia thankfully has been spared most

of the protectionist wave that’s come

ashore elsewhere through related po-

litical crazes like Brexit. These movements are

said to be driven by middle-class consciousness,

insecurity, fear of a lessened future. By contrast,

Asians in the main are still hopeful of rising

through that mid-rung status and on to even

more prosperous days. Hence a grotesque can-

didacy such as Donald Trump’s or those of the

European nationalists seems less likely to succeed here.

But there are spot expressions of frustration and doubt, and surprises such

as the Philippines rallying to Rodrigo Duterte (see p. 19). The bigger Asian chal-

lenge is external, however: an increased likelihood that world trade barriers will

rise to thwart opportunities. The pending Trans-Pacific Partnership is now at

risk. In its potential to unlock gains all the way (developmentally) from Japan

to Vietnam—and to set rules for an even wider trading bloc to come—this TPP

pact is a high-stakes deal.

Several months ago, hosting a panel of Southeast Asian specialists at the

Council on Foreign Relations in New York, I asked all to put odds on TPP being

ratified by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. My guess of a 30% chance

was the lowest. I fear that events are going to bear me out. The White House

and big business are pushing harder lately, but the American campaign dynam-

ics of 2016 do not bode well. At best, TPP might slip through a postelection

Washington with payoffs added to key constituencies.

Already the global sluggishness is curbing commerce, as reflected in shipping

and port activity so vital to Asia. Failure to recast economies by tackling legacy

interests—as so many Asian nations still need to do—will drain energy further.

Fortunately, the mind-set remains a positive: This region is still in a mood to join

together instead of pull apart. It just needs good blueprints for doing so.

A

nother Asian uprising was Tsai Ing-wen’s election as president in Tai-

wan. Democratic resistance to an overweening China is understand-

able (and Beijing has greeted Tsai’s win with just such bumptiousness),

but in my June visit to Taipei I sensed an impetuous bent by her party. To wit:

Shutting off one’s own nuclear-power sources might not be the wisest course in

an economy struggling to regain its footing.

Unprofitable Passions

Tim Ferguson

Editor, forbes asia

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