SUNDAY,MAY 15 , 2022 .THEWASHINGTONPOST EZ RE A21
PolicyAnalysis.Deterring NATO
enlargement was one of Putin’s
declared goals in attacking
Ukraine,whichhadbeenseeking
NATO membership.Finlandand
Sweden had not —until the
Ukraineinvasion,shenoted.
“Not only does Putin have a
hugefailureonhishandsinterms
of his militaryobjectives in
Ukraine, but he’s alsoenlarged
NATO,whichwastheexactoppo-
siteofwhathewanted,”Speranza
said.“Itunderscoreswhatahuge
strategicmiscalculationthiswas.”es the threatitoncedid, Toveri
said.
“Russia is so weak now they
couldn’triskanotherhumiliating
defeat,”hesaid. If Russia were to
attempt to send troops into Fin-
land, “in acouple of days they
would be wiped out. Therisk of
humiliating defeatishigh, and I
don’tthinktheycantakethat.”
Forthe Kremlin “it’s areally
ironic moment,”said Lauren
Speranza, director of the transat-
lantic defense and securitypro-
gram at the Center for Europeanandwaters.
Theinvasion of Ukraine over-
turned thatcalculation, prompt-
ingFinnstoconcludetheywould
be safer under NATO’sprotective
umbrellathan left to deal with
Russiaalone.Beforethewar,only
20percent of Finns supported
joiningNATO.ByMay,thatfigure
hadreached76percent.
Finnshavealsoconcludedthat
the Russian military’sunexpect-
edlydismalperformanceandset-
backsonthe battlefield in
Ukrainesuggestitnolongerpos-warinukraineAPentagon spokesman dis-
missedthecriticisms,callingRus-
sianchargesadistractionandthe
transfer “permissible underU.S.
lawand consistent withour na-
tionalsecuritypriorities.”
“Russia’sclaimsareadisingen-
uousattempttodistractattention
fromRussia’s unprovoked inva-
sionand its historyofaggressive
actions againstUkraine since
2014,” said Marine Corps Lt. Col.
AntonT. Semelroth.
Thejob of ensuring thatU.S.
weaponsareusedfortheirintend-
edpurpose—ajointresponsibili-
tyoftheStateandDefensedepart-
ments —ismade all the more
difficult by the sheer volume of
arms making their wayto
Ukraine.
Theemergencyspending bill
awaiting approval in the Senate
willcementUkraine’sstatusasthe
world’s single largestrecipient of
U.S. securityassistance,receiving
more in 2022than theUnited
States ever provided to Afghani-
stan,IraqorIsraelinasingleyear.
Itwilladdtothestocksofweap-
onstheU.S.alreadycommittedto
Ukraine, including 1,400 Stinger
antiaircraftsystems,5,500 anti-
tank missiles,700 Switchblade
drones, 90 long-rangeHowitzers
artillerysystems, 7,000 small
arms, 50,000,000 roundsofam-
munition, and numerous other
mines,explosives and laser-guid-
edrocketsystems.
Shoulder-firedStingermissiles,
capable of downing commercial
airliners,arejustoneoftheweap-
on systems experts worrycould
slipintothepossessionofterrorist
groupsseekingtocarryoutmass-
casualtyevents.
TheBiden administration’s
fundingrequestincludes$8.7bil-
liontoreplenishU.S.stores of
weapons shipped to Ukraine, $6
billiontotrainandequipUkraini-
anforcesand$3.9billionforU.S.
forces deployed throughoutEu-
ropeinresponsetothe security
crisisthat’sbeensetoffbythewar.
OtherNATOcountries have
transferred billionsofdollarsin
arms and militaryequipment
sincethestartofhostilities.
“The assistance exceeds the
peakyearofU.S.militaryassis-
tance to Afghan securityforces
duringthat20-yearwar,” saidWil-
liam Hartung, an arms control
expertatthe QuincyInstitute
thinktank. “Inthatcase the U.S.funding requestinabipartisan
368-to-57voteonTuesday.Butthe
unprecedentedinfluxofarmshas
prompted fears thatsome equip-
ment could fall into the hands of
Western adversaries or reemerge
infarawayconflicts—fordecades
tocome.
“It’sjustimpossible to keep
trackofnotonlywherethey’reall
goingandwhoisusingthem,but
how theyare being used,”said
Rachel Stohl, an arms-control ex-
pertand vice president at the
StimsonCenter.
AState Department spokes-
mansaid the United Stateshas
conductedthoroughvettingofthe
Ukrainianunits it supplies while
forcing Kyiv to sign agreements
that“donotallowtheretransferof
equipmentto third partieswith-
outprior U.S. government autho-
rization.”
But the means of enforcing
suchcontractsarerelativelyweak
—and made even weaker by
Washington’s ownmixedhistory
of compliance, as recentlyaslast
month.
In mid-April,theUnitedStates
boosted its involvement in the
Ukraine conflictbyannouncing
thatitwould transfer afleetof
Mi-17helicopterstoUkraine that
it originally purchased from Rus-
siaaboutadecadeago.Theinitial
sale of theaircraftrequiredthe
United States to sign acontract
promisingnottotransfertheheli-
copters to anythird country
“withouttheapprovaloftheRus-
sianFederation,”according to a
copyofthe certificate posted on
the website of Russia’sFederal
Service on Military-Technical Co-
operation.
Russia has denounced the
transfer,sayingit“grosslyviolates
the foundations of international
law.”
Arms expertssay Russia’s bru-
talaggression in Ukrainemore
thanjustifiesU.S.support,butthe
violation of weapons contracts
chips away at thefoundations of
counter-proliferationefforts.
“Breakingofthose end-use
agreementsis aserious threatto
theunderlying,butweak,capacity
forcountriestocontrolhowweap-
onsareused,”saidJeffAbramson,
an expertonconventional arms
transfers at the Arms Control As-
sociation.
WEAPONS FROM A1
Ukraine’s history of arms
tra≠icking worries U.S.
as weapons flow surges
much NATO militaryinfrastruc-
ture will be establishedon Rus-
sia’sborders.
No decisions have been
reachedonwhatkindofpresence
NATO will establishin Finland
and Swedenonce their accession
hasbeenformalized,whichcould
be several monthsaway.Anew
hitch has emerged in the form of
Turkish PresidentRecep Tayyip
Erdogan’sobjectiontotheirmem-
bershiponthegroundsthatSwe-
den hosts membersof the out-
lawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party,
orPKK.
But it is highly likely thatFin-
land’s membershipwon’trequire
asignificant NATO troop pres-
ence, analysts say. Finlandhas a
robustand well-equippedarmy
thathasconductedregulartrain-
ing exerciseswith NATO coun-
tries. Itsmilitaryisalready well
integrated with NATO military
systems.
SogreatisthethreattoRussia’s
strategic interests thatMoscow
willbecompelledtotakesome
form of action againstFinland,
saidDmitrySuslovoftheNation-
al Research UniversityHigher
SchoolofEconomicsinMoscow.
At aminimum,he said, Russia
will need to fortifyits military
presencealong the Finnishbor-
der becauseFinlandwill no lon-
gerbeconsidered a“friendly”
country. It will also have to step
upitsnavalpresenceintheBaltic
Sea,whichhesaidwillbecome“a
NATOlake.”
If the United States or Britain
establishbasesinFinland,Russia
willhave“nochoicebuttodeploy
tacticalnuclearweaponstotarget
thosebases,”Suslovwarned.
Finlandis braced for further
actions, said the former Finnish
general Toveri, if only because
Putin mayfeel the need to save
face. But Finns have becomeac-
customed over decadesto living
with apotentiallyhostile power
on their borders,and don’t feel
undulythreatened,hesaid.
“Weareusedtothefactthatthe
Russians are there,”Toveri said.
“MostFinns aren’t too anxious
aboutit.”Already,Moscowappearstobe
dialingdownitsthreatsofretalia-
tion.InatelephonecallSaturday,
PutintoldFinnishPresidentSauli
NiinistothatFinland’sdecisionto
join NATO is “wrong”and could
have “a negative effect” on Rus-
sian-Finnishrelations —but he
didn’t makespecific threats, ac-
cordingto areadout from the
Kremlin.
Niinisto,whoinitiatedthecall,
bluntlytold Putin thatitwas
aboveallhis“massiveinvasion”of
Ukraine thatpromptedFinland
toseektheprotectionaffordedby
the NATO securityalliance,ac-
cordingto astatement from his
office.
“The conversation was direct
and straightforward and it was
conducted withoutaggravations.
Avoiding tensions was consid-
ered important,”the statement
said.
In the weeks precedingFin-
land’sannouncement,Russianof-
ficials had warnedof dire reper-
cussions,includingthe deploy-
ment of nuclearweaponsin the
vicinityand the dispatch of mili-
taryreinforcementsto the Finn-
ishborder.
They have sincebeen more
circumspect, saying Russia’sre-
sponsewill dependon how far
NATOgoestowardestablishinga
presenceonRussia’sborder.
Thedecision will requireRus-
sia to offer a“politicalreaction,”
RussiannewsoutletsquotedDep-
utyForeign Minister Alexander
GrushkoassayingonSaturday—
astepbackfromthe“militaryand
technical”response threatened
by Kremlin spokesmanDmitry
PeskovonThursday.
Healsosaiditwas“tooearlyto
talk about the deploymentof nu-
clear weaponsin the Baltic re-
gion”and added that“Moscow
willnotbeguidedbyemotions”in
decidingitsresponse.
Russia will conducta“thor-
oughanalysis”ofanynewconfig-
uration of forces on its border
before decidingon its response,
he said, echoingPeskov’s com-
ments thatthe degree of Russian
retaliation will dependon howearly response came Saturday
with an announcement by the
Russian state-owned company
RAONordicthatithas halted
electricityexports to Finland,al-
thoughit was unclearwhether
the move was intended as apun-
ishment.Russia blamedWestern
sanctions for the move, saying
theyhad made it difficult for
Russia to receivepaymentsfor
thesupplies.
Finlandshruggedoff the ac-
tion. Finnishofficials said they
had already been scalingback
imports of Russian electricityto
guardagainstpossibleattackson
the country’sinfrastructure, and
Russian electricityaccountedfor
only 10 percentof its consump-
tion.
Russiamaytrytolaunchcyber-
attacks againstFinnish infra-
structureorwagehybridwarfare
in an attempt to swayFinnish
public opinion,but Finlandhas
highlydevelopedsystemscapable
of counteringanysuch efforts,
said retired Maj. Gen. Pekka
Toveri, aformer chiefofFinnish
militaryintelligence.
“Theyactuallydon’thavemuch
theycan use to threaten us,”
Toveri said. “Theydon’t have po-
litical,militaryoreconomicpow-
er.”
Finland’s decision,expected to
be formallyannouncedSunday,
upends the balance of power
alongthenorthernbordersofthe
NATO alliance. In the coming
days, Swedenis expected to fol-
low Finland’s lead and also seek
NATO membership.But it is Fin-
land’saccessionthatwillhavethe
biggestimpactonRussia,serving
todoublethesizeofRussia’sland
borderwith NATO and entirely
encircleits three ports on the
BalticSea.
Fordecades,Finlandhad re-
frained from joiningNATO for
fearofprovokingitslarger,nucle-
ar-armedneighbor.And Russian
President Vladimir Putin had
kept those fears alive with vague
threatsofwarandmenacingacts
ofharassmentinFinnishairspace
NATO FROM A1
Russia angry but has bad hand as Finland heads to NATO
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Shared borders between
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and RussiaforcesinEasternUkraine.
In response, Russian President
VladimirPutinofferedhisapprov-
al, saying,“We need to give them
whattheywantandhelpthemget
totheconflictzone.”
At the same meeting,Shoigu
proposedhanding overcaptured
U.S. Javelin and Stingermissiles
topro-RussianseparatistsinDon-
basregion.“Pleasedothis,”Putin
toldShoigu.
Theintroduction offoreign
fighterstoaconflictrunstherisks
ofweaponsreturningtothosein-
dividuals’ countries of origin
when the fightinginUkraine
ends.There are conflicting re-
ports about the presence of for-
eign fighters there, however,and
it’s unclearprecisely how many
haveinfacttraveledtoUkraine.
Thelack of information has
spurredcallsforanswersfromthe
administration and attention
fromCongress.
“Some of theweapons being
provided in the conflictin
Ukraine are likely to be found
years,andpossiblydecadeslater,”
said Abramson. “Congressional
leaders should be asking these
questions,inclassifiedbriefingsif
needed, and the public shouldbe
betterinformed.”whatguaranteestheyhaveob-
tained,toensuretheprotectionof
civilians through these verylarge
transfers,”saidAnnieShiel,asen-
ioradviserattheCenterforCivil-
iansinConflict.
Some of the recommended
steps include establishing aspe-
cial investigator as the U.S. gov-
ernment did in Afghanistan, en-
suringanyweaponstransferscon-
tain strong tracking procedures,
adding human rights obligations
inthetermsofsaleandincluding
specifics about what unitscan be
authorizedtoreceive such trans-
fers.(In 2018, Congressbanned
Ukraine’s Azov battalion,afar-
rightnationalistgroupassociated
with neo-Nazism, from receiving
U.S.weapons.)
There are additional concerns
amongwatchdoggroupsabout
arms proliferation stemming
fromMoscow amidreports it has
enlisted mercenaries fromLibya,
SyriaandChechnya,aswellasthe
WagnerGroup,aRussiancontrac-
tor.
During atelevised meeting of
Russia’sSecurityCouncil in
March, Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu said 16,000 volunteersin
the Middle Eaststood ready to
fight alongside Russian-backedtheSmall ArmsSurveyin2017.
“Officials estimated thatatleast
300,000 small arms and light
weapons were looted orlostbe-
tween2013and2015,”providinga
boon the country’sblack market
runbyMafia-stylegroupsinDon-
basregionandothernetworks.
TheU.S.government is well
aware of the country’schallenges
with weapons proliferation,
though it has beenvague in de-
scribing the precautionsit’s tak-
ing.
WeeksafterRussia’slatestinva-
sionofUkraineonFeb.24,agroup
of interagencyofficials in the
Biden administration metwith
outsidearms-control experts to
discusstheriskofsmall-armspro-
liferation in the conflict. Accord-
ing to Stohl, who attended one of
themeetings,U.S.officialsoffered
assurancesaboutvettingUkraini-
ansecurityforcesandaddressing
reports of unauthorized transfer
—but scant details on how the
vettingormonitoringhappens.
“Itdoesnotinspiremuchconfi-
dence,”saidStohl.
Otherarmsexpertsfeelsimilar-
lyinthedark.
“Itisunclearwhatriskmitiga-
tion or monitoring steps the U.S.
andothercountrieshavetaken,orhad amajorpresencein-country
thatcreatedatleastthepossibility
of tracking whereweaponswere
ending up. By comparison, the
U.S.governmentisflyingblindin
terms of monitoring weapons
suppliedtocivilian militiasand
themilitaryinUkraine.”
Ukraine’s historyasahub for
armstraffickingdatestothefallof
theSovietUnion,whentheSoviet
militaryleftbehindlargeamounts
of small arms and lightweapons
in Ukrainewithoutadequatere-
cord-keepingand inventorycon-
trol.AccordingtotheSmallArms
Survey, aGeneva-basedresearch
organization, aportion of the
Ukrainian military’s7.1 million
smallarmsinstockin1992“were
divertedtoconflictareas”under-
scoring“theriskofleakagetothe
localblackmarket.”
Theproblem grewmore acute
after Russia’s invasion in 2014,
which sawcombatants looting
armsandmunition-storagefacili-
ties of Ukraine’sSecurityService,
Interior and Defenseministries.
“Irregular fighters on bothsides
progressively gained access to a
wide rangeofmilitary-grade
equipment, including the full
spectrum of small arms and light
weapons,”accordingtoareportbyJONATHANERNST/REUTERS
Antitank missiles sitonstage as President Bidendeliversremarksonarming Ukraine afteratour ofaweaponsfactoryinTroy,Ala., on
May3.Ukrainehasreceivedmoreaid in 2022than the UnitedStates ever provided to Afghanistan,IraqorIsraelinasingleyear.