A4 EZ RE THE WASHINGTON POST.SUNDAY, MAY 15 , 2022
“If you wanted to
kill a bunch of
MAGA voters in
the middle of the
heartland, how
better than to
target them and
their kids with
this deadly
fentanyl? ... It
does look
intentional. It’s
like Joe Biden wants to punish
the people who didn’t vote for
him and opening up the
floodgates to the border is one
way to do it.”
— GOP Senate candidate J.D.
Vance, in an interview with Jim
Hoft of Gateway Pundit, April
29
Shortly before he won the
Republican primary for Ohio’s
Senate race, Vance made this
startling observation. Vance, the
author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and a
conservative commentator,
argued that President Biden’s
border policies had reverberated
across the country, allowing not
only undocumented immigrants
but also deadly drugs to flow into
the country — with a nefarious
purpose. He suggested that
Biden was intentionally allowing
drugs such as fentanyl to flood
the United States with the
intention of trying to kill
supporters of former president
Donald Trump in the “heartland”
of the country.
Whoa! That’s extreme, even by
today’s standards of political
rhetoric. We’re not sure how to
even evaluate that. But we can
certainly dig into the data to see
whether there is even a basis for
Vance’s claim that Biden has
allowed the flow of drugs and
deaths to increase.
The Facts
As is often the case, the data with
which to make a complete
analysis is incomplete — or not
up to date.
U.S. Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) reports
monthly data on border seizures
of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic
opioid drug that can be lethal
even in small doses. But by itself,
these statistics tell you only
about the drugs that are
intercepted, not what might be
missed.
Most drugs are seized at ports
of entry, according to the
Congressional Research Service.
It’s unclear what quantity of
illicit drugs is smuggled across
the border between ports of
entry, such as through tunnels or
past border barriers.
More seizures could mean the
Border Patrol is doing a better
job. Or they could mean more
drugs are flowing into the
country. Or the numbers may
mean nothing when viewed in
isolation. If data on increased
seizures was coupled with a
decline in drug availability, that
would suggest that law
enforcement is preventing a
greater percentage of drugs from
reaching the street. But as of
2019, the availability of fentanyl
remained high, according to the
2020 National Drug Threat
Assessment, and there is little
sign that availability has
declined since then.
But with those caveats, we
find that, according to the
monthly reports posted by CBP,
7,267 pounds of fentanyl were
seized in 2020, the last year of
the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, 10,753 pounds were
seized in 2021, the first year of
the Biden administration. That’s
an increase of almost 50 percent
in just one year.
During Trump’s four years,
however, seizures of fentanyl
increased 592 percent, according
to the Department of Homeland
Security inspector general.
“Under the Biden-Harris
Administration, DHS has
interdicted more drugs and
disrupted more smuggling
operations than ever before,” a
department spokesperson said in
a statement. “In fiscal year 2021,
HSI [Homeland Security
Investigations] Special Agents
conducted 12,920 criminal
arrests and seized over 2.
million pounds of narcotics,
which included 14,530 pounds of
fentanyl. This compares to FY
2020 seizures of more than 1.
million pounds, including 6,
pounds of fentanyl. In addition,
HSI Special Agents seized more
than $188 million in total
currency and assets. In FY 2021,
CBP seized 900,000 pounds of
narcotics, a significant increase
over the previous year.”
As we said, whether these
numbers mean much is open to
question. But it’s the best data
we have.
“The increase in seizures tells
us that law enforcement is
making more seizures,” said
Katharine Neill Harris, a drug
policy expert at Rice University’s
Baker Institute for Public Policy.Vance’s claim that Biden
is targeting ‘MAGA voters’
with deadly fentanyl
The Fact
Checker
GLENN
KESSLER
Once belittled by
then-President
Donald Trump as
a “third-rate
grandstander,”
Rep. Thomas Massie is used to
tilting at political windmills.
In early March, the Kentucky
Republican was one of just three
lawmakers to oppose the first
piece of legislation designed to
show U.S. support for Ukraine in
its war against an invading
Russian army, a familiar lonely
spot for the libertarian-leaning
lawmaker frequently at odds
with his party’s leaders.
But on Monday, Massie spoke
to Trump for the first time in
more than two years — and
received the former president’s
endorsement in Tuesday’s
Kentucky primary. And on May
10, 56 Republicans joined Massie
in opposing the latest push to
send arms to the Ukrainian
forces.
“It’s growing by the week,” he
told reporters in an impromptu
20-minute conversation off the
House floor Friday. He suggested
the price tag so far was “insane”
and that sanctions against
Moscow only increase inflation.
“More and more people are
agreeing with that.”
Massie, 51, is the only member
of the House to hold a perfect 16-
for-16 record opposing
legislation to support Ukraine
and oppose Russia, according to
House records and a Democratic
analysis provided to The
Washington Post.
It was easy to brush Massie
aside in early March when he
opposed a simple, nonbinding
resolution declaring American
support for Ukraine and
demanding Russian President
Vladimir Putin call a cease-fire.
Or in late April, when Rep.
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)
was the only other Republican to
oppose a bill to protect religious
freedoms in Ukraine.
Little by little, however, with
each proposal, a few more
Republicans would sign up:
Eight Republicans opposed
suspending trade privileges for
Russia in mid-March; 17
Republicans opposed a
resolution supporting Moldova,
whose leaders fear their Ukraine-
bordering nation could be Putin’s
next target; 19 opposed a similar
resolution in support for
Georgia.
Then, on April 27, 55 House
Republicans opposed legislation
to build secure
telecommunications networks in
Ukraine and neighboring
nations. Finally, on Tuesday, 57
Republicans opposed President
Biden’s request for $40 billion in
weapons and humanitarian aid,
with some saying the legislation
had been rushed to the floor
without detailed consideration.
All Democrats backed the
president’s request.
Massie saw it as a defining
moment.
“This is the real story. Not that
there’s 57 Republicans who’ve
woken up to the folly of what
we’re doing in Ukraine, but that
there are zero Democrats. Every
single one of them is on the
wrong side of this,” he said.
His views remain a minority,
but his allies in this cause
include some of the closest allies
to Trump, who is strongly
considering another run for
president and has espoused his
own fondness for Putin.
Greene, who frequently
appears as a warm-up act for
Trump rallies, has opposed 15 of
the 16 measures related to
Ukraine. Arizona GOP Reps.
Andy Biggs and Paul A. Gosar —
who supported efforts to try to
block President Biden’s
certification of victory in the
2020 campaign — have voted
against 11 and 10 of the Ukraine-
related bills, respectively.
These Republicans sum up
their world view in blunt,
nationalist terms. “Let me ask
you,” Greene said during an
interview Thursday. “Has
Vladimir Putin stopped his war
in Ukraine because of all these
sanctions? No, not at all. It hasn’t
done anything. So, you know
what? I care about our country,
United States of America and ourpeople. That’s it.”
Greene, a freshman with no
background in foreign policy,
often uses fiery terms that do not
fully grasp the geopolitical issue
at hand. “Baby formula, baby
formula, people cannot find baby
formula, with such a shortage.
But our Congress is going to send
$40 billion to some other
country,” she said.
But Massie — an engineer who
graduated with several degrees
from M.I.T. and became an
inventor who still holds a
number of patents — has
devoted time and energy to
honing his America First views
during five terms in the House.
“I’m further, I think, than he is
on the issue of NATO. He
demanded that the partners pay
their share. I would withdraw us
from NATO,” Massie explained of
his and Trump’s views toward
the critical alliance. “It’s a Cold
War relic. Our involvement
should have ceased when the
[Berlin] wall fell and the Soviet
Union collapsed.”
He would have preemptivelysurrendered portions of eastern
Ukraine to Russia in a manner
that would have “avoided tens of
thousands of people dying,”
because this is how he sees the
war ending anyway.
“A fractured Ukraine, with the
Eastern portion of it being a
satellite or more government,
more deferential to Putin, and
the Western part of it more
deferential to Europe or the
United States,” Massie said.
These views are anathema to
traditional Republican hawks as
well as Democrats in line with
Biden, who push for a vigorous
foreign policy that works to unify
allies, particularly in Europe.
“Both Democrats and
Republicans have at different
times in history had a more
isolationist, nativist wing,” said
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.),
chairman of the House Armed
Services Committee. “Right now,
it’s the Republicans who are
highest on that. They’re playing a
very isolationist card.”
“Honestly there is an
isolationist wing within theparty that’s traditionally been
there,” said Rep. Michael McCaul
(Tex.), ranking Republican of the
House Foreign Affairs
Committee.
Smith takes a more optimistic
outlook, focusing on how more
than 70 percent of House
Republicans supported the latest
Ukraine aid package and that on
other votes, Massie and Greene
have had few allies.
“Pretty much everybody else
understands that this isn’t just
about Ukraine. It is about our
security and peace and stability
in the world. So thus far the
Republican Party is still there,”
Smith said.
McCaul has actually been
pleasantly surprised that the
anti-Ukraine faction has not
grown larger, something he
attributes to the success on the
ground of Ukrainian troops and
the atrocities committed by
Putin’s troops.
“I was really worried,
interestingly, earlier on about
how this was going to trend,”
McCaul said Friday.He understands that this
could turn into a long-term
commitment and worries that
later this year, when almost
inevitably Biden will ask
Congress for another war
supplemental bill, support will
drop among Republicans.
“I still think there’s very
strong support, but it is
something we’re keeping an eye
on as we look at the next
supplemental,” McCaul said.
“What’s going to be the appetite
for that?”
Smith does worry about the
nativist wing’s influence with
Trump if he runs for president in- “If Trump is the leader of
their party, that’s a huge
problem,” he said.
Before Monday’s call, Massie
said he last spoke to Trump on
March 27, 2020, just off the floor
of the House as the then-
president screamed at him to
allow the chamber to
unanimously approve the more
than $2 trillion Cares Act to
combat the early days of the
pandemic.
Massie objected to a simple
unanimous consent — which
would have allowed all but a few
members to safely stay home and
pass the massive bill without an
actual vote. Instead, about 250
lawmakers showed up and gave
their vocal support, a bipartisan
victory that prompted Trump to
call for Massie to be expelled
from the GOP.
He went on to win reelection
without Trump, and by Monday,
Trump reached out to Massie.
“A glorious phone call,” Massie
said.
They did not talk about
foreign policy, or Massie’s votes
to certify Biden’s victory. They
did not discuss Massie’s March
2020 actions. They did talk about
how Trump’s uncle taught at
M.I.T. for several decades.
Afterward, Trump issued a
public statement declaring
Massie a “first-rate” defender of
his policies, back in his good
graces.
“A promotion from third rate
to first rate,” Massie said.
The list of Republicans opposing support for Ukraine i s quickly growing
@PKCapitol
PAUL KANE
J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) speaks to reporters at the Capitol on Friday. Massie is the only House
member to vote against all legislation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.She said she was not aware of a
formula that would extrapolate
from seizure size to true drug
availability. “In any event,” she
added, “changing border policies
are not going to stop drug-
trafficking organizations from
getting drugs into the United
States.”
“Fentanyl seizure rates are
notoriously sketchy in part
because the drug is so compact
and easy to smuggle and
crackdowns often lead to the
substitution effect (which is how
cracking down on heroin helped
spur fentanyl and its analogs) by
incentivizing even more potent
analogs like carfentanil (AKA
elephant tranquilizer),” Sanho
Tree, the director of the Drug
Policy Project at the Institute for
Policy Studies, said in an email.
He added that seizures may have
been higher during the
coronavirus pandemic because
border agents had more time to
inspect vehicles because of the
lighter flow of vehicle traffic.
As for drug overdoses, about
70 percent of which result from
opioids such as fentanyl, they
increased sharply during the
Trump years — in particular,
after the start of the coronavirus
pandemic. Data from the Centers
for Disease Control and
Prevention, which publishesprovisional numbers on
overdoses, shows that 65,
people died in the United States
of drug overdoses in the 12-
month period ending January
2017, compared with 94,738 in
the 12 months ending January- That’s an increase of 45
percent under Trump.
In Biden’s first year, an
estimated 107,622 people died of
overdoses in the 12 months
ending in December. That’s an
increase of 15 percent, but that’s
half the rate of increase observed
in Trump’s last year in office. So
there’s little to indicate that
Biden’s policies are causing a
spike in overdose deaths.
If you isolate the CDC data
just for deaths by opioids, they
spiked 60 percent under Trump
and 15 percent in the first 12
months of Biden’s term.
In other words, Vance is
putting the blame on Biden for a
problem that became
significantly worse under Trump.
Finally, there’s Vance’s
assertion that the fentanyl
epidemic is aimed at “MAGA
voters” in the Midwest, who are
typically White and not
Hispanic. The data shows this is
also bunk. Overdose deaths have
increased the most among
people of color, with Black men
now having the highest rate of
overdoses. That’s probably not
your typical Trump voter, as
Black Americans
overwhelmingly voted for Biden.
There were 54.1 fatal drug
overdoses for every 100,
Black men in the United States
in 2020, according to Pew
Research Center, compared with
44.2 fatal drug overdoses for
White men and 27.3 for Hispanic
men. Pew said the death rate
among Black men more than
tripled (213 percent) from 2015
to 2020, compared with a 69
percent increase for White men
in the same period.
The raw numbers sometimes
disguise these disparities. In
2020, Ohio had more opioid
overdose deaths than any state
but the much-larger California —
and 80 percent of the opioid
deaths were among Whites. But
the opioid overdose death rate in
the state still was higher for
Black people than for Whites or
Hispanics, according to data
published by the Kaiser Family
Foundation.
Taylor van Kirk, a
spokeswoman for Vance, sent us
a copy of an ABC News report
showing that opioid overdose
deaths between 2019 and 2021
among teenagers 14 to 18 rose
more rapidly than in the general
population, mainly because offentanyl. The article was based
on a research note that analyzed
CDC data and was published in
the Journal of the American
Medical Association. The study
showed the rate of deaths (2.
per 100,000) had jumped sharply
to 4.57 per 100,000 in 2020 and
to 5.49 per 100,000 in early 2021.
But the report covered only the
first few months of Biden’s term
and, yet again, showed that the
big jump in deaths occurred
under Trump.The Pinocchio Test
In just about every way, Vance’s
outrage at Biden is misplaced.
Fentanyl seizures have increased,
not fallen, under Biden.
Overdose deaths jumped sharply
under Trump. As for Trump
voters being supposedly
targeted, people of color die of
opioid overdoses at a higher rate
than do Whites.
It’s bad enough to suggest that
the president is deliberately
trying to kill off Trump voters
with illicit drugs. But it’s
especially appalling to make
such hyperbolic claims based on
zero facts.
Vance earns Four Pinocchios.DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES
J.D. Vance meets with supporters in Cincinnati this month after securing the Republican nomination in Ohio’s Senate race. Vance
suggested last month that President Biden was intentionally allowing drugs such as fentanyl to flood the United States.