THOMAS KUHLENBECK FOR FORBES (TOP); AP PHOTO/LAURENT
WHAT’S NEXT FOR ASEAN
IN THE CONCLUSION of The ASEAN Mir-
acle: A Catalyst for Peace (NUS Press, 2017),
authors Kishore Mahbubani & Jeffery Sng
state: “If such an imperfect corner of the world
can deliver both peace and prosperity to its
625 million citizens, the rest of the world can
surely replicate ASEAN’s imperfect record.”
On August 8, ASEAN will be celebrating
the 50th anniversary of its founding when the
representatives of the original five nations—
a Buddhist (Thai), a Catholic (Filipino), two
Muslims (Indonesian and Malaysian) and a
“lapsed” Hindu (Singaporean)—signed the Bangkok Declaration. In view of its “mi-
raculous” achievements over this half-century, ASEAN, the authors argue, deserves
the Nobel Peace Prize.
I happened to be in Bangkok in August 1967—although I must admit I was
not conscious of this momentous event. Fresh out of university, I took an extend-
ed trip through Southeast Asia. It was, at the time, the world’s most hopeless and
infernal hellhole. For one thing, it was dirt poor. Singapore had a per capita in-
come inferior to that of Ghana: Indonesia’s was roughly half Nigeria’s. The U.S.
was pounding Vietnam and Laos with bombs—including the chemical weap-
ons napalm and Agent Orange. Indonesia had not recovered from the attempt-
ed coup in 1965, which in turn elicited an extremely violent reaction, includ-
ing mass killings of the Chinese minority. Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand
faced armed insurrections. Indonesia and Malaysia were verging on war, in what
was known as Konfrontasi, while the Philippines and Malaysia had a
threatening territorial dispute over Sabah.
ASEAN (which now counts ten member states) is incontestably
the world’s most diverse region ethnically, religiously and linguistical-
ly—Indonesia alone counts over 700 living languages. The region was
subjected historically to what the authors refer to as the “four waves”:
the Indian, the Chinese, the Muslim and the Western wave, thus mak-
ing it the global crossroads of all the world’s major civilizations. The au-
thors estimate the contemporary religious demographics at 240 million
Muslims, 140 million Buddhists, 130 million Christians, and 7 million
Hindus, along with a not insignificant number of animists, Taoists and,
of course, agnostics. If humanity’s default position for civilizations is to
clash, then ASEAN should have been a Sarajevo writ large.
By no means, however, should it be inferred that the last 50 years
have been a bed of roses. The Vietnam War continued with all its
brutality until the Americans withdrew from the devastated country in 1975. As
bad was the American war in Laos (1962–75), in which 10% of the population
perished and 25% were made refugees. The Khmer Rouge, in power in Cam-
bodia from 1975 to 1979, perpetrated one of the world’s worst genocides. And
there is the current persecution of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Myanmar.
What were ASEAN’s key success factors?
The geopolitical winds were, on balance, favorable. This was especially theMAY 2017 FORBES ASIA | 53case after Richard Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing in
1972 and the end of the Vietnam War. Even if on
opposite sides of the ideological fence, the People’s
Republic of China and the U.S. saw it in their mutu-
al interest to cooperate in the Asia Pacific region in
light of their common enemy, the USSR. This is im-
portant for, arguably, the greatest threat to ASEAN
now could be U.S.-China regional rivalry.
Also crucial were market-oriented reforms. The
economies of a number of the countries grew sig-
nificantly as foreign direct investments poured in,
though there were laggards, notably the Philip-
pines. In the 1980s, Thailand was known by the for-
eign investor community as the “standing-room-
only country,” as the queues for submitting projects
to the BOI (Board of Investment) were so long and
competitive. Malaysia became a major hub of elec-
tronics, foreign investment and manufacture. Per-
haps most dazzling is Vietnam, which, following a
disastrous decade of Stalinist-style state control, un-
dertook extensive radical reforms. Today Vietnam is
one of the world’s most entrepreneurial societies.
What next? ASEAN faces a number of chal-
lenges; two in particular stand out. China-U.S. ten-
sions will have immense repercussions throughout
the world, especially in ASEAN. The
South China Sea cauldron is a poten-
tial source of catastrophic conflict.
And the authors acknowledge that
ASEAN can be an elitist project. There
may be great camaraderie between the
political, thought and business leaders,
but to the ASEAN men and women
in the street, it does not represent very
much. Greater efforts to bring ASEAN
to the people need to be made.
One hopes that these challeng-
es—and there are others, including
overcoming political shenanigans
and widespread corruption—will
be met. ASEAN is a remarkable success story. The
narrative should continue, not just for the sake of
the 625 million citizens of ASEAN but also for the
385 million inhabitants of the Middle East North
Africa (MENA) region and for the world in gen-
eral. The citizens of MENA have a great deal they
could learn from ASEAN and its large Muslim
population. Indeed, replicating the ASEAN model
JEAN-PIERRE LEHMANNSWITZERLAND; VISITING PROFESSOR AT HONG KONG UNIVERSITY AND NIIT UNIVERSITY, RAJASTHAN, INDIA. IS A CONTRIBUTOR TO FORBES.COM AND EMERITUS PROFESSOR AT IMD, LAUSANNE, would be a tremendous feat.THOUGHT LEADERS JEAN-PIERRE LEHMANN // ASIAN SPOTLIGHT
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