24 T. WAKIYAMA ET AL.
Table 2.3
Monte Carlo simulation results: Household IRR and NPV forecast values for 20 year in different scenariosForecast values42 JPY/k Wh (2012)
38 JPY/k Wh (2013)
No FIT
10 years FIT/10 years no FIT
20 years FIT
20 years FIT
Life time of solar panel
20 years
20 years
20 years
20 years
IRR
NPV
IRR
NPV
IRR
NPV
IRR
NPV
Base case
0.28
%
79,779
0.33
%
145,073
0.33
%
198,316
0.33
%
187,027
Mean
0.08
%
–364,450
0.25
%
–158,426
0.27
%
49,442
0.25
%
5664
Median
0.08
%
–376,511
0.25
%
–170,684
0.27
%
41,471
0.25
%
262
Standard deviation
0.09
%
171,007
0.07
%
173,414
0.07
%
170,740
0.07
%
175,836
Variance
0.00
%
29,243,337,346
0.00
%
30,072,280,326
0.00
%
29,152,279,231
0.00
%
30,918,202,919
Skewness
0.0347
0.4183
–0.0867
0.6477
0.0503
0.3641
–0.0867
0.1895
Kurtosis
3.09
3.36
2.85
3.83
3.04
3.30
2.85
2.86
Coeff. of variability
1.0443
–0.47
0.3004
–1.09
0.2638
3.45
0.3004
31.04
Minimum
–0.24
%
–901,155
0.02
%
–579,417
0.06
%
–377,833
0.02
%
–460,845
Maximum
0.36
%
303,377
0.46
%
623,701
0.51
%
737,412
0.46
%
613,071
Range width
0.60
%
1,204,532
0.44
%
1,203,119
0.45
%
1,115,244
0.44
%
1,073,916
Mean std. error
0.00
%
5408
0.00
%
5484
0.00
%
5399
0.00
%
5560
Source: Author