26 T. WAKIYAMA ET AL.
Table 2.4 Monte Carlo simulation results: IRR and NPV forecast values
IRR NPV
Immediate
amortization
Normal
amortization
Immediate
amortization
Normal amortization
Base case 4.1 % 5.4 % 2,027,561 1,596,096
Mean 4.3 % 6.0 % 2,424,052 1,908,257
Median 4.3 % 5.8 % 2,385,502 1,889,248
Mode – – – –
Standard
deviation
1.0 % 2.8 % 1,950,528 1,772,726
Variance 0.0 % 0.1 % 3,804,557,599,868 3,142,556,063,614
Skewness 0.0755 0.4924 0.0832 0.1995
Kurtosis 2.87 3.42 2.84 3.00
Coeff. of
variability
0.2407 0.4757 0.8047 0.9290
Minimum 0.9 % –0.3 % –3,982,245 –2,856,827
Maximum 7.6 % 19.3 % 8,899,546 8,443,521
Range width 6.7 % 19.7 % 12,881,791 11,300,349
Mean std.
error
0.00 % 0.1 % 61,681 56,059
Source: Author
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
NPV
Probability
(6,000,000) (4,000,000) (2,000,000)02,000,000
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Frequency
Certainty Min = (11,286)
Certainty = 22.38%
Fig. 2.4 NPV distribution for 20-year immediate amortization for an FIT of 40
JPY/kWh. Source: Author