Low Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment in Asian Cities

64 R.G. DEWI ET AL.

Our method is based on the back-casting approach and was devel-
oped to identify ways to meet desirable goals: (1) setting the framework:
base (2005) and target years (2030), environmental targets, target areas,
and number of scenarios; (2) describing and quantifying socioeconomic
assumptions; (3) exploring energy technologies for low-carbon mea-
sures; (4) estimating GHG emissions for the base and target years; and
(5) analysing low-carbon measures that can be used to meet low-carbon
city targets. Projection scenarios developed for this study are BaU and
Mitigation scenario (CM) scenarios. The BaU scenario envisions devel-
opment paths and associated GHG emissions without considering CM
efforts. The CM scenario was developed to envision development paths
to achieving low-carbon city targets.
Over the last decade, the city’s population grew by 1 % p.a. and the econ-
omy grew by 6.5 % p.a. Therefore, the projection (2005–2030) assumes
that the population will continue to grow at the same rate (1 % p.a.) and
that the economy will grow at a slightly faster rate (7 % p.a.). Figure  4.2
presents the population by age group and GDP output for 2005 and 2030.
The fi gure shows that the main contributors to the city’s economy include
the tertiary industry (commercial) followed by the secondary industry

Export by goods

Government expenditure

Import ratio

Input coefficient matrix

Private consumptions

Fixed capital formation

Floor area per output

Energy service demand per driving force

Energy end-use device share

Energy end-use device energy efficiency

Dispersed powergeneration (DPG)

Energy efficiency DPG

Exogenous variables Parameters Endogenous variables

IOanalysis Output by industry

Output ofcommercial

industry

Output ofmanufacturing

industry Population Number of

household

Commercial building floor

area

Freighttransport

demand

Passenger transport

demand

Energy efficiencyFuel share Energy service demand

Final energy demand

Energy demand (DGP) Central powergeneration (CPG)

Energy demand (CPG)

Primary energy supply

CO 2 emssions

Population

Household size

Trip per personTrip distance

Modal share

Freight generation per output

Transport distanceModal share

Energy efficiency (CPG)

Fuel share (CPG)Transmission loss

(CPG)Own use (CPG)

CO 2 emission factor

Fig. 4.1 Overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool calculation system (Dewi
et al. 2010 )