Low Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment in Asian Cities

LOW-CARBON CITY SCENARIOS FOR DKI JAKARTA TOWARDS 2030 65

(manufacture). The commercial sector will grow at a faster rate relative to
other sectors, and therefore the share of this sector will increase from 66 %
(2005) to 71 % (2030). Although this sector accounts for a high share of
GDP output, the energy intensity level of the commercial sector is lower
than that of other sectors. Therefore, fi nal energy demand growth in the
commercial sector is assumed to be lower than that in other sectors.
The projections for both the BaU and mitigation scenarios use the same
socioeconomic indicator assumptions. All the assumptions of socioeco-
nomic indicators used in this study are described in Table  4.1. As shown
in the table, the city’s population increases 1.3-fold, GDP increases 5-fold,
passenger transport demand levels increase 3.9-fold, and freight-transport
demand levels increase 3.8-fold. All these parameters eventually affect
energy demand projections and associated GHG emissions.
In this study, the mitigation scenario is limited to energy technology
options that can be used to achieve low-carbon city targets. Other options
that might lead to GHG emission reductions (e.g., lifestyle changes)
are not considered in this study. In developing these energy technology
options, mitigation options in RAD GRK for DKI Jakarta are used as
a reference. The options are limited to GHG emission reduction from
energy consuming activities, that is, from the transportation, industrial,
commercial, and residential sectors.
GHG emissions from the power sector are indirect emissions result-
ing from electricity consumption. Mitigation actions taking the form of
electricity effi ciency measures will eventually mitigate emissions from
power generation that fall outside of DKI Jakarta’s jurisdiction. Therefore,
energy technology options that can reduce CO 2 emissions in the power
sector are not examined in this study. Thus, the energy technology options
considered in this study include:

2.1 2.7

6.3 8.0

0.5

9.0 0.6

11.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2030

Million

> 64

15–64

0–14

979

4,473

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2005 2030

Trillion Rupiah

Tertiary IndustriesCement

Iron & Steel

Other Industry

Construction

Chemical IndustryTextile

Food & Beverage

Mining & Quarryng

(^66) Agriculture
71
Fig. 4.2 Projected population (by age group composition) and GDP output