Low Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment in Asian Cities

LOW-CARBON CITY SCENARIOS FOR DKI JAKARTA TOWARDS 2030 67

demand generation, and energy technology mix schemes that will be
deployed in the future. Energy supplies correspond with future energy
demand levels and energy mix and technological decisions that address
future energy demand. Future GHG emission levels will be determined
by the magnitude of energy activities (on both the demand and the sup-
ply sides) and by technology mix schemes employed in energy activities.
The ExSS modelling simulation, which presents snapshots of population,
GDP, energy demand, and GHG trends for the base and target years, is
shown in Fig.  4.3 and Table  4.2. Snapshots of the parameters shown in
Fig.  4.3 are presented as a ratio of future values (2030) compared with
base year levels (2005).
A snapshot of the fi nal energy demand under BaU and CM projec-
tions on energy demand (by type and sector) for 2030 is presented in
Fig.  4.4 , while a snapshot of the energy supply mix and corresponding
sectoral GHG emission trends is presented in Fig.  4.5. A snapshot of
fi nal energy demand levels in DKI Jakarta shows that under the BaU
scenario, fi nal energy demand levels from 2005 to 2030 are estimated
to increase 4.1-fold from 6.67 mtoe (5.5 % of total energy consump-
tion of Indonesia) to 27.54 mtoe, whereas primary energy supplies will
increase from 11.29 mtoe to 49.2 mtoe from 2005 to 2030. Under
the CM scenario in the same period, demand is estimated to increase
3.5-fold from 6.67 mtoe to 23.33 mtoe, whereas the primary energy
supply mix level will increase from 11.3 mtoe to 41.53 mtoe. Future

1.0 1.3 1.0

5.0

1.0

4.1 3.5

1.0

4.7

3.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030

BaU

2030

CM

2005 2030

BaU

2030

CM

Population GDP Energy Demand CO2 Emission

Value at base year 2005 = 1

Fig. 4.3 Future population, GDP, energy, and CO 2 emission values