charged through a cordon of Ukrainian riot
police. Later than evening he was address-
ing cheering crowds outside the Mayor’s
office in Lviv.
Saakashvili claims, with some justice,
that the cancellation of his citizenship was
illegal and that he plans to challenge it in
court, as is his right as a Ukrainian. But
he is also running a massive risk. Geor-
gian courts have requested his extradition
(Saakashvili, again with strong justification,
has dismissed the abuse-of-office charges as
politically motivated). Though the Ukrain-
ian prosecutor-general has said that he will
not prosecute for the illegal border crossing,
Saakashvili’s liberty is now at the mercy of
local party politics.
The question is whether Poroshenko
has the cojones to risk making Saakashvi-
li a martyr — and himself an internation-
al pariah. Poroshenko desperately needs
economic support from the European
Union and the International Monetary
Fund, both of which have already balked
at Kiev’s dismal failure to tackle corrup-
tion. Imprisoning Saakashvili, the long-
time darling of the West, would destroy
the last vestiges of Poroshenko’s credibil-
ity. He also needs support from the US. In
July, Poroshenko travelled to Washington to
ask Donald Trump personally to maintain
pressure on Russia by sanctioning Krem-
lin-connected individuals and companies as
punishment for their ongoing support for
separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Poroshenko
also asked Trump to send weapons to fight
what he calls the ‘Russian occupiers’, some-
thing the US has hitherto shied away from.
Both efforts would be seriously complicat-
ed by throwing Saakashvili in jail.
But the more profound conundrum is
whether Saakashvili, with his flamboyant
and confrontational style, can actually suc-
ceed in his crusade to transform Ukraine
from a dysfunctional mafia state into a
prosperous European country. In June,
Saakashvili founded a political party based
on anti-corruption, and though its ratings
remain tiny, the new political movement is
generally thought to have played a majorrole in Poroshenko’s decision to exile his
turbulent rival. Saakashvili has now vowed
to stand against Poroshenko in the next
presidential election.
Much more is at stake than just Saakash-
vili’s political career and freedom. The
whole vector of the West’s foreign policy
towards the former Soviet Union, including
Russia, since the end of the Cold War has
been to encourage the rule of law, democ-
racy and free speech, on the promise that
reform will lead to prosperity. Two popular
revolutions in Ukraine and one in Geor-
gia (the Orange and Maidan revolutions in
2004 and 2014, and the Rose revolution in
2003) have seen people angrily rise up to
depose corrupt Moscow-backed regimes in
favour of supposedly clean, pro-European,
pro-Nato governments.
The hopes of all three revolutions,
thanks in part to Russian interference,
military and otherwise, have collapsed in
ignominious failure and corrupt business-
as-usual. If there’s to be any hope that post-
Soviet nations can, in the pungent Russian
phrase, finally ‘live like people’, then feisty
reformers like Saakashvili have to succeed.
A reckless egomaniac he may be, but he’s
the closest there is to someone who’s on
the side of the angels in a corner of Europe
beset with ultra-nationalism, kleptocracy
and Russian aggression.‘Let’s call him Brexit.’http://www.BullionByPost.co.uk
0121 634 8060
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