9more, N ATO’s attractiveness as a partner to Central Asian states is likely to continue
to decrease, as it shifts its attention from Afghanistan to other challenges closer
to home, including Russia and Eastern Europe. Due to increased N ATO-Russia
tensions, close contacts with the organisation may create additional problems for
some Central Asian nations as they could elicit a negative reaction from Moscow.
In this respect, US President Donald Trump has already stated that the US
will not be investing in foreign aid and assistance programmes in Central Asia. In
his erratic foreign policy trajectory, this seems to be a solid statement. According
to the current US administration’s plans, aid to the Caucasus and Central Asia is
set to be slashed by more than half, from 218.1 million US dollars in 2016 to 93.
million dollars in 2018. The political scientist Ariel Cohen has recently argued on
the pages of the National Interest that “America’s next security competition will be
in Central Asia”, and that the US “needs to view the changes in Eurasia as a set of
political-military, diplomatic and economic opportunities”. Yet, why the US would
have to compete for security in the region where security is a goal shared by eve-
ryone, and what these opportunities are, is not explained. Today, if anything, one
of the major criticisms made against US administrations, both present and past,
has been that of a lack of a clear and rational policy toward Central Asia.
Mother RussiaRussia’s strategy in the region is strongly tied with the idea that Central Asia
is part of the previously existing Soviet Union and hence is based on the idea of
a neighbourhood. While in the 1990s Russia’s engagement with the region was
limited due to unfavourable internal political and economic conditions, after Sep-
tember 11th 2001 it has expanded considerably. While Russia is very much aware
that it is not the only great power with strong interests in the region, it has recently
carried out significant steps in the fields of security, by negotiating new military
base leases with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It has also increased its military sup-
plies to Kazakhstan and reinforced its economic clout in the region by including
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the Eurasian Economic Union and discussing ac-
cession procedures with Tajikistan. Moreover, Russia has sought to strengthen its
economic influence in the region through several additional parallel initiatives,
such as the Eurasian Development Bank, the Anti-Crisis Fund, and the Free Trade
Zone Agreement of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), all featuring
a strong Russian presence in terms of capital invested.
Russia extends its influence in Central Asia by ensuring that domestic laws of
the five regional states mirror, to the extent that it is possible, those approved in
The new Great Game that is not, Filippo Costa Buranelli Opinion & Analysis