111That said, this world is still evolving.
So Russia has some time to adapt, al-
though not much. It retains considerable
soft power potential. It has an educated
population and could do extraordinary
things, for example, with renewable en-
ergy. Imagine, too, a Russia that is well-
governed, not necessarily a democracy,
but more effectively governed than it is
today. That Russia would have a tremen-
dous capacity to influence neighbouring
societies and countries through its sheer
geographical extent. Its soft power could
be enormous. But it has to change itself
in order to make that soft power count.
What about its hard power?
Of course, Russia will still have nu-
clear weapons and be militarily pow-
erful. It has the potential to become a
multidimensional great power. But if it
continues to rely on old stereotypes and
traditional methods of projecting power
and influence, it will find it very hard to
remain any kind of great power. The ex-
ample of 16th century Spain is relevant
here. The Spanish Empire did not col-
lapse overnight. It just became less and
less important over a long period of
time. It was the global power, yet by the
end of the 18th century it was a regional
backwater. This is the threat that Russia
faces. In time, trends and events may
overtake it and leave it behind.
And you think now is the time Russia
should be making changes...?
Now is the window of opportunity
for Russia, yes.
What kind of steps should it take to
prepare for this new world disorder? If you
were in Vladimir Putin’s shoes, what would
you do?
Of course, many in the West hope that
Russia will become a liberal democracy.
But this is not going to happen – at least
not soon. I do not think that the Putin
regime necessarily has to follow western
economic and political prescriptions.
Russia is a particular kind of country with
a particular strategic and political cul-
ture. We need to be realistic. But I would
say that the first step for the regime is to
recognise that there is a problem. That
Russia has to modernise and that certain
issues need to be addressed, such as en-
demic corruption. Even if Putin cannot
“solve” corruption, he can at least be-
gin to tackle the problem seriously. He
can also take steps to develop Russia’s
backward infrastructure – not through
grand showcase projects but by building
infrastructure that helps people to live
better and easier lives. It is unrealistic
to believe that Russia will be a western-
style democracy, but it is not unrealistic
to expect improved governance.
Look at China. Xi Jinping recognised
that corruption could not be tolerated
indefinitely, but had to be addressed as
a matter of urgency. In fact, China has
become more authoritarian under his
leadership, but in some respects it has
also become better governed. Russia
needs to resolve fundamental issues of
the rule of law, governance and social
welfare. Ultimately, modernisation is a
frame of mind. It is about understand-Russia is unprepared for the next world order, Interviewer: Adam Reichardt Interviews