54
to RFE/RL. The question is whether the policies of grandiosity and neutrality, for
so long equally crucial to Turkmenistan’s stability and which mutually reinforced
each other, are beginning to diverge. If so, grandiosity might force Turkmenistan to
abandon neutrality, albeit unofficially. The regime might begin to quietly seek aid
from the outside world, and that could lead to complex geopolitical entanglements.
A perfect storm of negative developments may be bearing down on Turkmen-
istan. One of them is Taliban activity along its border with Afghanistan, which has
been dramatically building up over the last few years and may be in danger of boil-
ing over. There are signs that Turkmenistan may be seeking material assistance
from Russia. For instance on October 2nd this year, Russian president Vladimir
Putin visited Ashgabat. During the meeting, Putin and Berdimuhammedov signed
a “strategic partnership” agreement, the content of which is unclear. Fourteen bi-
lateral documents in total were signed during the meeting, including agreements
for intergovernmental co-operation in agriculture, migration and combating il-
legal drug trafficking. Some analysts speculate that Ashgabat and Moscow may
even be discussing actual boots on the ground along the border, similar to a long-
standing arrangement between Russia and Tajikistan vis-à-vis Afghanistan.
Another development is a dispute with Iran over
gas prices and Turkmenistan’s decision to cut off gas
exports to Iran in January 2017. Ashgabat claims that
Tehran is 1.8 billion US dollars in arrears. Although
Tehran does not deny the debt, it wants the arrears to
be reviewed and has been threatening to begin legal
proceedings against Ashgabat in the International
Court of Arbitration. Again, regional analysts speculate
that this is a situation which could quickly get out of hand for the Turkmenistani
authorities. They point out that representatives of the United Arab Emirates and
Kuwait – rivals of Iran in the Middle East – were featured prominently in the lavish
opening ceremony of the 2017 Indoor Asian Games, held recently in Ashgabat. In
their view, this could be an overture from Ashgabat to Abu Dhabi.
The attraction of a Turkmenistani-Arab partnership, analysts say, should be
evident to Iran: Ashgabat needs new markets and investment, Abu Dhabi needs
to triangulate against Tehran. Turkmenistan’s position astride Iran’s northeastern
border combined with an estimated two million ethnic Turkmen living along that
space makes the country a potentially attractive ally. Of course, such speculations
should be taken with a grain of salt. Understanding the internal machinations of
the Turkmenistani regime is much like reading tea leaves. The most senior Arab
representative to have been involved in the games was Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad Al-
Sabah, a Kuwaiti politician and current president of the Olympic Council of Asia.A dispute over
gas prices led
Turkmenistan to cut
off gas exports to Iran
in January this year.Opinion & Analysis A looming humanitarian crisis in the land Orwell forgot, Christopher Schwartz