55Kuwait is actually actively trying to broker a resolution in the recent diplomatic
crisis between the other Gulf States and Qatar (seat of Al Jazeera and seen by its
neighbors as being in league with Iran), and hence would seem an unlikely geopo-
litical conspirator. Besides, the Turkmenistani government has so far neglected the
Iranian Turkmen; it has little reach among them, including intelligence.
Still, the danger is that if a Turkmenistani-Arab partnership of some kind did
emerge, it would inevitably entangle Turkmenistan in the growing rivalry between
the Gulf States and Iran – a rivalry described by many Middle Eastern analysts as
a regional cold war for dominance that has already devoured Syria and Iraq.
A way out?“The Turkmenistan government will never openly admit to having a problem”,
Nishanov says. “But their situation is not unprecedented.” He points to the example
of neighbouring Uzbekistan – another country with a frightful human rights track
record – that is also very high on the list of the world’s most closed societies. “If
this crisis happened in Uzbekistan, the government would be faced with a choice:
face resistance or permit greater freedoms,” explains Nishanov.
Indeed, over the last year the world has witnessed the Uzbekistani government
deciding to permit greater freedoms. It has also been reaching out to its neighbours,
including its old enemies Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Not incidentally, Uzbekistan
has also recently reached out to Turkmenistan in an attempt to establish more
cross-border trade.
“Although the Turkmenistani side of that trade is likely to be very opaque, maybe
with this new relationship Uzbekistan can now come to their rescue if a crisis re-
ally hits”, Nishanov hopes.
If it is true that Turkmenistan is approaching the precipice, observers can only
hope that its leadership will follow Uzbekistan’s example and not leap into the
abyss.
Christopher Schwartz is a freelance journalist focusing primarily on Central Asia.
He is based at the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, and
is earning a doctoral degree from the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium.A looming humanitarian crisis in the land Orwell forgot, Christopher Schwartz Opinion & Analysis