The Times - UK (2022-05-17)

10 2GM Tuesday May 17 2022 | the times

News

President Putin’s troops have given up
on executing a “large-scale encircle-
ment” of Ukrainian forces in part of the
eastern Donbas region, according to
military analysts.
Russian forces appear to have aban-
doned plans to surround the defenders
holding a pocket of territory between
the cities of Donetsk and Izyum in
favour of completing the seizure of the
Luhansk region, to the northeast, the
latest assessment by the Institute for
the Study of War (ISW), an American
think tank, suggests.
Ukrainian officials claim to hold only
about 10 per cent of the easternmost
Luhansk region, much of which, like
Donetsk, sided with Moscow as a self-
declared separatist republic in 2014.
Fully capturing the two regions had
become the Kremlin’s stated priority in
the past month, but the assault has been
slowed by Ukrainian resistance.
Nearly three months into the inva-
sion, Ukraine is retaking territory in the
northeast, driving Russian forces away
from Kharkiv, the second-largest
Ukrainian city, and repelling an incur-
sion in the northern region of Sumy.
The defence ministry announced that
troops of Ukraine’s 127th brigade in the
Kharkiv region had regained control of
territory on the Russian border near
Kharkiv, which has been under con-
stant fire since the invasion began.
The troops “drove out the Russians
and claimed the state border”, the min-
istry said on social media.
Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to
President Zelensky, said Russian troops
were being redeployed towards the
Donbas region, south of Kharkiv, after
a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
General Sir Richard Barrons, former
head of UK Joint Forces Command,
said Russia’s inability to take Kharkiv
should be regarded as a defeat. He told
Toda y on BBC Radio 4: “It was just way
too big an objective for the Russian mil-
itary.” He added that the invader didn’t
have “the numbers, the will or the skill
to take large cities”.
He said: “When [the Russian force]
got stuck round the outskirts, it became
an easier target for a very aggressive
and successful Ukrainian counter-
attack, and trying to sit around Kharkiv
became much less important than the
fight under way in the Donbas.”
Russia focused its attacks on other
towns and villages in the east and south
of the country. Ukraine’s presidential
spokesman said the invader had con-
tinued its strikes on the Luhansk region
south of Kharkiv. “Two people were
killed and nine were wounded, includ-
ing a child, as a result of shelling on a
Severodonetsk hospital,” the spokes-
man said, referring to an urban hub.
Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk regional
governor, said Russian troops were
“shelling Severodonetsk without stop-
ping”, and the city was almost sur-
rounded by them. In a statement on the
Telegram messaging app he urged resi-
dents not to leave their shelters.
The city of Severodonetsk is impor-
tant because controlling it would
enable Russia to drive west and link up
with its forces pushing southeast from
Izyum, 80 miles south of Kharkiv.
Putin abandoned his original plan to
take the capital, Kyiv, and other big
cities, to focus on Donbas. However,
progress has appeared to be relatively
slow, with the invaders taking less than
a mile of ground a day, not the expected
25 miles.
In a sign of Russia’s struggles, Haidai
said that the Russian command prob-
ably believed it would not be able to
seize all of Donetsk region but could
take Luhansk. The ISW said these ob-
servations were consistent with its ana-

lysis, adding that the Russian military

command was now expected to priori-

tise the battle of Severodonetsk.

The governor of the Sumy region

said Ukrainian border guards had

repelled an incursion by a Russian sab-

otage group. Dmytro Zhyvytsky wrote

on Telegram that the group entered

under the cover of mortar shells, gre-

nades and machinegun fire but retreat-

ed after the border guards fought back.

Mykhaylo Podolyak, a senior presi-

dential adviser, said Ukraine could

defeat Russia by the end of the year but

needed heavy weapons from the West

and a “real oil embargo” on Russia.

The ISW said Russia was thought to

have run out of combat-ready reserves,

forcing it to gather soldiers from differ-

ent units, including private military and

proxy militias, and combine them with

regular army and naval infantry forces.

The Ukrainian general staff reported

that about 2,500 Russian reservists

were training in the Belgorod, Voron-

ezh and Rostov regions to boost Rus-

sian offensives. However the ISW

assessed that the number was unlikely

to supplement Russian units that have

lost a fifth of personnel in some areas.

The Ministry of Defence noted yes-

terday that Belarus had announced the

deployment of special operations

troops along its border with Ukraine

and air defence, artillery and missile

units to training ranges.

“The presence of Belarusian forces

will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they

cannot deploy in support of operations

in the Donbas,” the MoD said.

West must not worry about humiliating

Putin, leading article, 29

Phillips O’Brien

Comment

T

he mood music

from Kyiv is

surprisingly

upbeat.

Considering that

much of Ukraine’s south

and east is still occupied

and the Russians are still

launching attacks in the

Donbas, this might come as

a surprise.

On Saturday Major

General Kyrylo Budanov,

the head of Ukrainian

military intelligence, gave

an interview in which he

predicted that far from

advancing, the Russian

army would soon find itself

in serious trouble. By

August, he claimed, it could

be a spent force.

This helps to explain why

the Ukrainian government

is bullish on negotiations

with Russia, maintaining

their demand of a return of

all occupied territory,

including Crimea.

Talk of the war turning

into a clear victory for

Ukraine would have been

inconceivable to most

analysts on February 24,

the day on which Russia

invaded, but over the past

12 weeks strategic trends

have appeared to support

the positivity of President

Zelensky’s government.

The first trend is the

evolution of the Russian

and Ukrainian armed

forces. The Russian army

that crossed the border is a

much weaker force, is less

well-equipped, has fewer

well-trained soldiers and is

suffering from serious

morale problems.

Defence sources in the

UK and the US estimate

that Russia has lost one

third of the forces with

which it started the war,

having orginally employed

three quarters of what were

considered the best troops

in its army.

Overcoming these losses

is difficult, as the Russian

state seems unwilling to

order a mass mobilisation.

Instead the Russians are

trying to cobble together

replacements from several

disparate sources, including

mercenaries, conscripts

from occupied Ukraine and

overseas recruits.

There are reports of

attempts to enlist men from

central Asia using

economic incentives and

even, if the International

Committee of the Red

Cross is to be believed, the

recruitment of children as

young as 16 from Russia

itself. All of these efforts

smell of panic and

represent a stopgap effort.

Equipping these soldiers

Kyiv upbeat as defence forces

grow in power and confidence

with high-quality weaponry

will also not be easy. Much

of Russia’s frontline

materiel has proved poorly

maintained or faulty.

In addition the Russians

have lost huge amounts of

this already, in what

amounts to historic

equipment losses.

The Russians have

already lost as many tanks,

including some of their

most effective variants, as

the British, French and

German armies combined

have on operational duty.

Although Russia still has

large stockpiles to draw

upon, these are older, less

effective models that have

been mothballed for years,

possibly decades.

Considering all of this,

it’s not surprising that

stories of serious morale

problems in the Russian

army are circulating. The

Pentagon now speaks

openly of Russian officers

and soldiers refusing to

follow orders or take risks.

The Ukrainian army,

however, is moving in the

other direction. Since

February 24 it has

improved its weaponry and

armaments significantly.

Nato countries, which

were careful not to provide

Ukraine with too much

support before the Russian

invasion began, have

recently been flooding the

Kremlin ‘drops plans to cut off

News War in Ukraine

Azov Sea

Mariupol

Severodonetsk

Rubizhne

Luhansk

Kharkiv

Donetsk

Izyum

Chuhuiv

Slovyansk

Popasna

Staromlynivka

Donbas

region

border

Russian-held territory

Russian advance

Ukrainian

counter-offensive

Surrounded by

Russian troops

LUHANSK

DONETTTTTSTTSK

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

50 miles

Mar 2022

Apr 2022

May 2022 Jun 2022?

Russia foiled

How Russians had

planned to encircle

Ukrainian territory

Larisa Brown Defence Editor country with more
powerful systems.
A wide variety of
countries have provided
heavy howitzers, most
famously the US M777,
which can outrange
Russian artillery in most
instances. This ground
support is augmented by
additional tanks, armoured
personnel carriers and a big
range of small arms.
Ukraine is also receiving
upgraded unmanned aerial
vehicle systems of the type
they did not possess on
February 24.
These include the
Switchblade and Phoenix
Ghost loitering munitions,
which can patrol far over
Russian lines, before
plunging down on targets
such as the soft-skinned
trucks of which the
Russians already seem to
be running short.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s
casualties, while serious,
have not been so
catastrophic as Russia’s.
Although it is hard to get
precise figures, some
estimates put Ukrainian
losses at one quarter to one
third of the Russian losses.
Ukraine has also been
boosted by the voluntary
support of thousands of
soldiers from around the
world, mitigating some of
the losses on the ground.
We see on the battlefield
the Russians are still
struggling with basic
operations, yet the
Ukrainians are daily
showing greater initiative
and professionalisation. As
the Russians struggle to
take a village here or there
in the Donbas, the
Ukrainians are in the
process of clearing the
Russian army away from
Kharkiv, the country’s
second city.
As the war goes on and
the Ukrainians continue to
strengthen while the
Russians weaken, these
differences are likely to
grow. If the Russians don’t
mass mobilise, it is hard to
see how they can generate
the force needed to hold on
to their large and unwieldy
parcels of territory taken in
their earlier southern and
eastern offensives.
Without a new army,
their offensive, which is
already petering out, will
stop altogether. The
Ukrainians will then have
the initiative. This is why
Ukraine can win.
Phillips O’Brien is professor
of strategic studies at the
University of St Andrews

Elation after

Russians are

‘pushed back

to the border’