the times | Tuesday May 17 2022 29
Leading articles
er to achieve. Meanwhile the leaders of Germany
and Italy, Olaf Scholz and Mario Draghi, have
both called in recent days for a ceasefire as a prel-
ude to negotiations on a settlement.
These are unhelpful interventions. This is
Ukraine’s war and it is up to Mr Zelensky to decide
when to sue for peace and on what terms. He be-
lieves that, with Nato support, the Ukrainian
armed forces cannot only push Russian forces
back to their lines on the eve of the invasion but
recapture the Donbas territory and Crimea seized
by Russia and its proxies in 2014. Rather than try-
ing to encourage a ceasefire, Nato should be doing
all it can to ensure Kyiv receives the weapons it
needs, as the alliance’s foreign ministers recom-
mitted to do at their meeting yesterday.
There’s no question that there are risks to hu-
miliating Russia. As its forces struggle, so the risk
rises that it might resort to ever more extreme tac-
tics, including the use of chemical or tactical nu-
clear weapons. What’s more, the Kremlin justifies
its invasion on the grounds that an independent
Ukraine that is free to join Nato and the European
Union poses an existential threat to Russia. Under
Russian military doctrine, an existential threat to
the country is grounds for first-strike use of strate-
gic nuclear weapons. At the very least, a defeatedRussia would be unstable and unpredictable, mak-
ing a durable peace harder to achieve.
Yet these risks need to be set alongside the risks
of allowing Moscow any chance to save face.
Nothing in Mr Putin’s ravings over the past decade
suggest that he will ever abandon his belief that
Ukraine is a fake country with no right to exist.
And there is nothing in his record to suggest that
he would regard a ceasefire as anything other than
an opportunity to regroup and prepare for a fresh
offensive. Besides, any deal that allowed Mr Putin
to retain any Ukrainian territory would spell the
end of the post-war international order, which is
based on respect for the sovereignty and territor-
ial integrity of nation states and which has under-
pinned global security for more than 70 years.
Indeed, the best chance of a more stable global
order lies in a sustained defeat for Russia in
Ukraine, no matter how humiliating that might be
for Mr Putin. The West has wasted too many years
trying to appease this dictator whose imperial fan-
tasies threaten all of Europe. German voters
appear to understand this, punishing Mr Scholz’s
Social Democratic Party for his timidity in a re-
gional election on Sunday. So long as Kyiv wants
to continue fighting and believes it can win, the
West must help Ukraine finish the job.dards since comparable records began in the
1950s. Accelerating inflation is being driven prin-
cipally by surging prices for energy and food.
Until this month, the Bank’s monetary policy
committee (MPC) had maintained interest rates
at less than 1 per cent since 2009, in the wake of the
financial crisis. With the immense economic
shock of the pandemic in 2020, the MPC reduced
rates to just 0.1 per cent and resumed its pro-
gramme of expanding the money supply by buy-
ing large quantities of government debt.
These were extraordinary measures but they
were right for the times. They helped to ensure
that the economy did not tip into a downturn com-
parable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
There was moreover a risk that raising rates and
ending the asset-purchase programme too early,
without fully knowing the risk that new Covid-19
variants posed to public health, might choke off re-
covery. And even if the Bank had raised interest
rates quicker, this would have had scant effect in
curbing domestic inflation, as energy and food
prices reflect predominantly global pressures.
Across the advanced industrial economies,inflationary pressures have been intensifying. In
the US, excessive fiscal stimulus has aggravated
the problem. In Britain, policymakers did not re-
cognise early enough that there would be labour
shortages in some sectors, compounded by the ef-
fects of Brexit. But it is still a fair judgment that in-
flation will return to the target in 2023 as higher
energy and food prices prove to be a one-off effect.
The Bank’s task now is to demonstrate that it is
aware of the danger that expectations of higher in-
flation become embedded in the system and cause
a wage-price spiral akin to that of the 1970s.
That is the main argument for tightening policy
now. It would be a historic mistake for politicians
to threaten the gains of inflation targeting by carp-
ing at the Bank’s record. It is an economic benefit
if monetary policy is insulated from short-term
political pressures. A central bank with a mandate
of price stability can allow consumers, businesses
and investors to take longer-term decisions. Pros-
perity depends on confidence. Attacking the
Bank’s mandate, and chipping away at a monetary
framework that has worked for 30 years, would
serve no good purpose.Paid holidays have been introduced around the
world for good reason. People perform better
when the mind and body are refreshed. For centu-
ries holidays were, as the name suggests, holy
days, when the Christian world decreed Sunday a
day of rest and religious festivals a time to rejoice.
Persuading employers in a secular world to extend
this to annual leave has come slowly over the past
century but now it is almost universal. Burkina Fa-
so gets 30 days a year plus 15 paid public holidays.
Slovakia offers 40 days a year. Britain offers 28
days paid annual leave plus a meagre number of
bank holidays. Perhaps the most solicitous is Lux-embourg, where a dozen different categories insist
on statutory paid leave: six days for a civil partner-
ship, two days for moving house, a day for the
death of a grandparent and two days for adoption.
What matters is that people take their leave. The
culture that began in Japan of forgoing holidays is
pernicious, and led to the phenomenon of karoshi,
death by overwork. Heart attacks, strokes and
starvation are caused by up to 90 hours in the
office a week, claiming some 10,000 lives a year.
Holidays are to be enjoyed and celebrated. Brit-
ons have few qualms about planning them. Sadly,
the US and Japan have yet to catch up.Winning Ways
So long as Kyiv wants to continue fighting and believes it can win, the West must do
all it can to help Ukraine defeat Russia and not worry about humiliating Putin
It is looking increasingly possible that Ukraine
can win its war against Russia. That is not just the
view of President Zelensky and the Ukrainian mil-
itary, who believe victory could be theirs by the
end of the year. It is also the view of Jens Stolten-
berg, the secretary-general of Nato. Photos pub-
lished on Sunday of Ukrainian soldiers at the Rus-
sian border near Kharkiv are symbolic evidence
that Kyiv has decisively won the battle for its
second city. Meanwhile Russia appears to have
abandoned its attempted encirclement of Ukrain-
ian troops in Donbas for a far more limited opera-
tion focused on capturing the rest of Luhansk re-
gion. Even this may now be beyond its diminished
capability. The Ministry of Defence assesses that
Russian forces have lost a third of their personnel
since the start of the invasion.
That Ukraine can win the war does not, of
course, mean that it will. Russia still occupies
swathes of the south and east of the country, which
means there is plenty more fighting to come if
Russian forces are to be dislodged. But Ukraine’s
successes are fuelling a debate among its allies as
to what victory would entail and how to secure a
durable peace. Last week Emmanuel Macron
warned against the “humiliation” of Russia, which
the French president said would make peace hard-Independence at Issue
The Bank of England’s mandate of inflation targeting should not be undermined
Controlling inflation is crucial to sound economic
policy. The Bank of England projects that the 12-
month rate of inflation will reach about 10 per cent
in 2022. It now stands at 7 per cent, whereas the
Bank’s target is 2 per cent. Policymakers as well as
the public are justly worried about the pressure
this is putting on real household incomes. Andrew
Bailey, the governor of the Bank, encountered
these concerns yesterday when giving evidence to
the Commons treasury select committee.
Some Conservatives accuse the Bank of failing
in its core objective of price stability. Mel Stride,
chairman of the committee, suggested to Mr Bai-
ley that the Bank had been “asleep at the wheel”.
The Bank should certainly be held accountable for
its record, but there is a risk of being wise after the
facts. Inflation targeting has served Britain well
and it would be an error to undermine the Bank’s
mandate by second-guessing its decisions.
There is no disputing the damage that high in-
flation is wreaking. The independent Office for
Budget Responsibility projects that an increase in
inflation this year to levels not seen since the early
1980s will cause the steepest decline in living stan-Holidays Without End
Offering employees limitless paid leave is generous only if it is taken
Most Europeans would be amazed and delighted
to be told by their employers to take as much holi-
day a year as they wanted. Americans are warier.
The announcement by Goldman Sachs that there
will be no cap on paid leave for senior partners
looks almost foolhardy in its generosity. But the
bank knows the prevailing culture. No one is likely
to take more time off than they do already. Indeed,
such is the competitive culture that few take even
the holidays to which they are entitled. In this new
limitless regime, most will demonstrate their com-
mitment by staying at their desks for months on
end. Despite burn-outs, profits will not be lost.UK: Elizabeth line (Crossrail) will be opened
by the Earl of Wessex; latest unemployment
statistics and universal credit statistics will
be announced.
Whitethroats are a
classic LBJ, or “little
brown job”, only
with a pale throat.
These summer
visitors come here
each year to breed
and take advantage of the annual surge in
insect and invertebrate numbers, and can be
seen and heard across much of the UK —
particularly arable farmland, reed beds and
scrub. In the second half of the last century
a catastrophic drought in their wintering
grounds of the Sahel led to a crash in
numbers, and while they have been
recovering, they have not fully bounced
back. Listen for a brisk, high-pitched song,
reedy and rather unmusical, sometimes
delivered in flight. melissa harrison
In 1900 the British garrison in Mafeking,
Cape Colony, was finally relieved after a
217-day siege by the Boer army.
Tamara Rojo, pictured,
artistic director and lead
principal dancer of
English National Ballet,
48; General Sir Richard
Barrons, commander,
Joint Forces Command
(2013-16), 63; Ivor
Bolton, chief conductor, Salzburg
Mozarteum Orchestra (2004-16, now
honorary), 64; Sir Rodric Braithwaite, UK
ambassador to USSR/Russia (1988-92), 90;
Richard Brooke, chairman, England Boxing,
68; Bill Bruford, rock and jazz drummer, Yes
(1968-72), 73; Prof Sir Paul Curran,
geographer, president, City, University of
London (2010-21), 67; Enya, singer, Orinoco
Flow (1988), 61; Anthony Eyton, figurative
painter, 99; Lucy Frazer, QC, Conservative
MP for South East Cambridgeshire, financial
secretary (HM Treasury), 50; Prof Cyril
Hilsum, physicist, 97; Sir Simon Hughes,
MP (1983-2015), deputy leader, Liberal
Democrats (2010-14), 71; Alan Johnson,
Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull West
and Hessle (1997-2017), home secretary
(2009-10), 72; Justin King, vice-chairman,
Terra Firma Capital Partners (2018-21), chief
executive, J Sainsbury (2004-14), 61;
Johanna Konta, tennis player, former British
No 1, 31; Sugar Ray Leonard, boxer, five-
weight world champion, 66; Queen Máxima
of the Netherlands, 51; Baroness (Susan)
Nye, director, Government Relations, 10
Downing Street (2007-10), 67; Christine
Ohuruogu, athlete, Olympic gold medallist
(2008), world 400m champion (2007, 2013),
38; Rhys Patchell, rugby union player,
Wales, 29; Rt Rev Stephen Platten, bishop of
Wakefield (2003-14), 75; Tony Roche, tennis
player and coach to world No 1s, 77; Chris
Skidmore, MP for Kingswood,
Gloucestershire, minister for universities,
science, research and innovation (2019-20),
41; Chloe Smith, Conservative MP for
Norwich North, work and pensions minister,
40; Jodie Taylor, footballer, England women,
36; Jeremy Vine, broadcaster, 57; Paul
Walker, chairman, Ashtead Group
(equipment rental company), chief
executive, Sage Group (1994-2010), 65; Paul
Whitehouse, comedian, The Fast Show
(1994-2014), 64.
“If you never know truth then you never know
love.” The Black Eyed Peas, American band,
Where is the Love? (2003).
Nature notes
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