31
Newly selecTed
British Prime Min-
ister Boris John-
son stormed into
10 Downing Street
this past summer
vowing to do the im-
possible: secure a better deal from Brus-
sels than the one offered to his predeces-
sor Theresa May. Johnson threatened to
pull the U.K. out of the E.U. on Oct. 31
should that deal not materialize.
Two months later, Johnson’s impos-
sible promise remains very challenging.
Not only have the Europeans
refused to reopen negotia-
tions, but Johnson’s move to
sidestep the British Parlia-
ment by suspending it for
five weeks triggered parlia-
mentary mutiny— Johnson
and his Conservative Party
lost their working majority in
the House of Commons, and
a cross-party alliance of MPs
(including a number of high-
profile Tories) banded to-
gether to pass legislation pre-
venting Johnson from pulling
the U.K. out of the E.U. absent
a deal. Johnson then demanded a general
election to secure himself a mandate to
move forward with his do-or-die nego-
tiations strategy with Brussels, but Brit-
ish parliamentarians refused that as well
until Johnson obtained either an exten-
sion or a deal from Brussels.
Now JohNsoN has goNE to the
Continent in search of a deal and politi-
cal salvation. The sticking point, as for-
mer Prime Minister May learned, is what
happens between Northern Ireland (part
of the U.K.) and the Republic of Ireland
(part of the E.U.). The Good Friday Agree-
ment that helped end much of the sectar-
ian violence in Northern Ireland did away
with any hard border between the two
sides, which worked fine so long as both
remained part of the E.U. Once the U.K.
opted to leave the E.U., Brussels insisted
that Northern Ireland remain part of the
European customs union as a “backstop”
until a system could be devised to keep
the border open while protecting the in-
tegrity of the E.U. marketplace.
This was a nonstarter for May and,
more important, for the Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP), which was prop-
ping up her government. For them, none
of the constituent elements of the U.K.
(England, Wales, Scotland and North-
ern Ireland) could be subject to a differ-
ent customs framework from the rest
of the kingdom, lest it jeopardize the
unity of the country. In the only real sig-
nificant concession Brussels
made to the British, it allowed
the backstop to apply to the
whole of the U.K. rather than
just Northern Ireland until al-
ternative arrangements could
be found. Hard-line Brexiteers
(Johnson among them) didn’t
consider this a concession at
all and demanded that the
backstop be scrapped entirely.
Europeans refused to budge
and told Johnson to come up
with a workable alternative.
They’re still waiting.
Staring political realities in
the face, Johnson knows he cannot accept
May’s deal after campaigning to replace it
with a better one, and he cannot leave the
E.U. without a deal because of the British
Parliament. Talks with European leaders
have been cordial but not particularly pro-
ductive. At the end of the day, his best bet
may indeed be accepting a tweaked version
of May’s deal with a Northern Ireland–
only backstop—which the E.U. is likely
to grant, since that was its proposal in
the first place—and putting it to a vote in
the Commons. Since Johnson has lost the
working majority anyway, appeasing the
DUP is no longer an issue, and plenty of
parliamentarians—maybe even a major-
ity of them—could vote for the deal as the
least bad option available and finally put
an end to the Brexit drama. Then the Brits
can hold an election and fight about Brexit
at the ballot box—at that point, they’ll be
the only ones who still care. THE RISK REPORT
Mr. Johnson
goes to Brussels
By Ian Bremmer
Johnson
knows he
cannot
accept May’s
deal after
campaigning
to replace
it with a
better one,
nor leave the
E.U. without
a dealQUICK TALK
What people
want in a mate
What do humans really want
in a long-term partner? And
how much of what we want
is influenced by culture,
as opposed to innate?
In a new report out of
Swansea University in the
U.K., researchers got 2,700
college students from five
countries—three from
Western cultures and two
from Eastern cultures—to
progressively narrow down
which characteristics were
most important to them in
a lifetime mate.
“For men and women
from both cultures, the
most important trait, hands
down, was kindness,” says
lead author and psychology
lecturer Andrew G. Thomas.
After that, there was a split
by gender: across cultures,
men said they value
physical attractiveness
while women prioritized
financial stability. But
there were international
nuances too. Western
partners tended to desire
humor more than those
from Eastern cultures, who
leaned a little more toward
religiosity and chastity.
Western women also valued
mates who wanted to have
kids. Thomas attributes
this to a higher use of
contraceptives in their
countries, which makes
childbearing more a matter
of choice.
ÑBelinda Luscombe