The Economist Asia - 20.01.2018

The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018 23

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1

“W

E vote for policies, not for a party,”

declares Jutamas Kamsomsri, a

housewife in a farming family in the vil-

lage of Nakam. “We aren’t stupid, we

watch the news on Facebook,” the bespec-

tacled matriarch adds. This in itself may be

news to those who assume that voters in

Isaan, a poor region in north-east Thailand

that is home to roughly a third of the coun-

try’s 69m people, are blindly loyal to Thak-

sin Shinawatra, a former prime minister

deposed in a coup in 2006, and to his sister

YingluckShinawatra, who ran the country

for almost three years until another coup

ousted her in 2014.

Parties associated with the family have

won every election since 2001, thanks to

votes from Thailand’s north and north-

east. Their supporters call themselves “red

shirts” and are stalwarts of the Shinawa-

tras’ current political vehicle, the Pheu Thai

party (PT). Given that history, however,

Isaan’s farmers are surprisingly ambiva-

lent about how they will vote if the mili-

tary regime allows thrice-delayed parlia-

mentary elections to be held in November,

as promised.

Isaan is vast and carpeted in paddy-

fields. Hunks of cassava are spread out on

the roads to dry. Locals grumble over the

prices they receive for their grains, sugar

cane and tapioca, as almost everyone

works on the land (just over a third of Thai

clude the 30-baht scheme, which allowed

the poor and sick to consult a doctor for

about $1. Across Isaan women working at

looms and men tapping rubber also speak

of their appreciation for Mr Thaksin’s bru-

tal anti-drugs campaign (a model for the

current one in the Philippines), his support

for student loans and his glitzy internation-

al connections. “Thaksin’s good for ex-

ports!” reckons one.

But the enthusiasm isnot ubiquitous—

not even in Nakam, where PTtriumphed at

the most recent election. Titipol Phakdee-

wanich, a professor of politics at Ubon

Ratchathani University, reckons the party

“can’t take Isaan for granted”. For one

thing, the ruling junta has kept many of the

Shinawatras’ mostpopularpolicies. Subsi-

dies to rice farmers are still doled out: in

September the government approved

$2.2bn in loans and handouts to help sta-

bilise prices ahead of the harvest.

Critics say such policies encourage

households to take on more and more

debt. However, unlike under MsYingluck,

the spending is curtailed. For example, if

farmers registertheir land properly, they

can get 1,200 baht for each rai of land they

farm (one rai is equivalent to 1,600 square

metres). But the payoutsare only available

to smallholders. A woman who farms a

tiny plot believes that this arrangement is

better than previoussubsidies. Farmers

benefited from PT’s generous prices for rice

only if they had excess rice to sell. The

smallest, poorest farmers, who harvest the

fewra ithey own to feed their families, did

not benefit at all, she says.

The junta also wants to move beyond

this kind of handout. In a popular step,

new social welfare cards appeared in Octo-

ber. These provide 200-300 baht ($6.26-

9.39) a month to those who earn less than

workers do overall). A surge in agricultural

prices between 2001 and 2012 is remem-

bered fondly. They have wobbled ever

since. Dogs and children thread through

the streets of forlorn villages while the el-

derly gossip. Almost everyone of working

age is in Bangkok; the region has little in-

dustry of its own. A quarter of households

are headed by an old person, a much high-

er share than in the country as a whole.

Money can buy you love

The Shinawatras’ popularity was the result

of populistpolicies. Isaan’s love was dear-

ly, and ingeniously, bought. Take rice subsi-

dies. Mr Thaksin introduced payments for

farmers which became more generous un-

der his sister. Six years ago Ms Yingluck’s

government began to buy the grain di-

rectly from farmers at roughly 50% more

than the prevailing international price.

This hoarding was supposed to create scar-

city abroad (Thailand was the world’s big-

gest exporter at the time), allowing the gov-

ernment to offload its stock without big

losses. But other exporters filled the gap.

The scheme, fraught with corruption, end-

ed up costing the government $16bn. The

army used the fiasco as an excuse to seize

power. Ms Yingluckfled the country in Au-

gust before the verdict was delivered in a

related case against her for negligence.

Other beloved Shinawatra policies in-

Politics in Thailand

Home truths

Ubon Ratchathani

The rice-growing heartland harbours unexpected support for the military regime

Asia

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