The Economist Asia - 20.01.2018

44 Europe The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018

2 just as it did at the national level.

Neither of these roles, though, quite

meets the aspiration of those on the

ground who thought they were joining a

radical citizens’ movement which would

be “neither on the left nor the right” and

would conduct politics differently. These

were people drawn into politics for the first

time, and who want to feel that their voice

still counts. The party is consulting grass-

roots supporters on policy matters, such as

an upcoming reform of vocational-train-

ing schemes. But legislation is moving fast

and the real decision-making takes place

inside government.

In its short life, LRM has been through

plenty of teething trouble. Not all its new

deputies have turned out well. One had to

leave the party after getting into a street

fight. Perhaps En Marche!’s toughest job is

to manage the tension between the needs

of policymakers in government and the

hopes of civic activists on the ground.

En Marche! is trying to keep the found-

ing spirit going. New ideas, says Ms de

Montchalin, “should notjust come from

the Paris elite”. The party is experimenting

with services that look like a cross between

citizens’ advice and the collaborative econ-

omy. It has set up online educational tools.

It runs a social platform to promote local

volunteering and community work. “En

Marche! can’tjust be a party like any oth-

er,” insists MrBerville. At a time of political

disillusion, it isan intriguing ambition. But

the more the party settles into power, and

the longer it stays in office, the harder this

may prove to be. 7

B

UNDLED up in woolly jumpers and

scarves, the mostly grey-haired crowd

filed into the civic centre in Schauenburg, a

small central German town, toasted the

new year with foaming glassesof beer and

exchanged genial gossip. It was hard to be-

lieve that they might hold the fate of the

world’s most powerful woman in their

hands. But they might indeed. Like their

comrades across the federal republic, these

ordinary members of the centre-left Social

Democrats (SPD) have the final say on

whether to give Angela Merkel a new ma-

jority to govern. And they were sceptical.

Timon Gremmels, the party’s local MP,

took to the stage to try to sell the deal.

“Clearly, mistakes were made during the

campaign,” he conceded; a nod to the

party’s record-low 20.5% score at the elec-

tion in September. He also regretted the

meagre substance of a preliminary co-

alition blueprint agreed on January 12th

between SPD leaders, Angela Merkel’s cen-

tre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and

their Christian Social Union (CSU) part-

ners: “There are things missing from the

discussion paper that I regret.” Heads be-

gan to shake, eyes to roll. Grimacing, Mr

Gremmels ploughed on as disgruntled

murmurs took hold, spread across the

room and then drowned him out. A soli-

tary listener clapped.

It was an illustration of what some in

the CDU/CSUhave dubbed the’ “dwarfs’

rebellion”. AsSPD leaders and MPshave

fanned out around the country to make the

case for a repeat of the grand coalition

(Grosse Koalition, or “GroKo”) that gov-

erned Germany from 2013 until the elec-

tion, they have met resistance from mem-

bers fed up with compromises and defeats.

Three state branches, including that in Ber-

lin, formally oppose the idea. So do the

Young Socialists, the party’s youth wing,

whose leader, Kevin Kühnert, has under-

taken a rival tour of local groups, complete

with “No GroKo” placards. On January 21st

delegates gather in Bonn to decide wheth-

er to endorse formal talks with the CDU/

CSU. If they opt not to, it could spell a new

election—and even prompt Mrs Merkel to

throw in the towel.

The SPD has never been enthusiastic

about another spin with the chancellor. Its

leaders ruled it out within minutesof polls

closing on September 24th, but were en-

ticed back to the table in November when

coalition talks between the CDU/CSU, the

pro-business Free Democrats and the

Greens collapsed. The outline of a new

GroKo deal was relatively unambitious.

The CDU/CSUgets new limits on immigra-

tion. The SPD gets somewhat expanded

child-care and, in a concession to its Euro-

philia, commitments to euro-zone integra-

tion richer in rhetoricthan in substance.

Nonetheless, the paper opens the door,

albeit in vague terms, to a euro-zone bud-

get and to a “European Monetary Fund”

rooted in European law. That “signals a

readiness to talk”, adds Lucas Guttenberg

of the Delors Institute, a think-tank, provid-

ing a basis for an agreement with Emman-

uel Macron (particularly if the SPD takes

the finance ministry). On January 17th a

group of 14 French and German econo-

mists published proposals for such a deal,

including common deposit insurance and

reformed fiscal rules. “We should notjust

wait until the next crisis,” said Marcel

Fratzscher, one of the authors, cautiously

deeming the preliminary coalition paper

“encouraging”.

The SPD has no good options. Another

coalition with Mrs Merkel could see the

party lose yet more support. A minority

CDU/CSUgovernment would, in effect,

give the SPDthe responsibilityof not bring-

ing down the government but little influ-

ence over it. And at the current rate—the

SPD fell to a record low of 18.5% in a poll

published on January 15th—a new election

might cost it seats without changing the ba-

sic coalition arithmetic.

Even if formal talks are approved, a fur-

ther barrier remains: any final agreement

must be approved in a full ballot of mem-

bers. SPD leaders are raising expectations

that the deal would improve on the prelim-

inary paper. But thatlooks doubtful. The

dwarfs may have their way yet. 7

Germany

The dwarfs’ uprising

KASSEL

SPD members could yet block another coalition deal with Angela Merkel