The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018 511A
S A child soldier in Sierra Leone in the
1990s, Eric Wolo smoked a brown
powder that made him dizzy during the
day, and took cocaine that kept him awake
at night when he had to keep watch. When
he returned to his home country, Liberia, in
1999, as a rebel fighter in its second civil war
in ten years, he took up “Italian white”, a
low-grade heroin. Fouryears laterhe hand-
ed in hisAK-47 for $150 and training in how
to grow rice and vegetables. But he never
became a farmer. When asked, he starts by
saying he gave all $150 to his girlfriend to
start a business. Then he admits he bought
drugs with the money. He now ekes out a
living finding passengers for cars going
from Ganta, on Liberia’s border with Guin-
ea, to the capital, Monrovia.
Since the late 1980s there have been
more than 60 “disarmament, demobilisa-
tion and reintegration” (DDR) programmes
like Liberia’s, aimed atstopping civil wars
reigniting, in dozensof countries. The idea
is simple. Part fighters from their weapons.
Discharge them from their militias. Help
them into civilian life with money and
training—or, in the case of children, school.
Aid donors have usuallybeen willing
to help pay for the schemes, often as part of
a peace deal overseen by the UN. In 2008,
the most recent year for which there are
comprehensive data, 15 DDR programmes
were under way. Their budgets (which cov-Wolo, many work erratically, in low-skilled
jobs. Others do not work at all. Groups con-
gregate to take drugs on the fringes of
towns and Monrovia’s slums. William
Teage, the chairman of Congo Community
on the outskirts of Ganta, where Mr Wolo
lives, says its biggest problem is drugs. He
estimates that a tenth of the 2,000 resi-
dents are ex-combatants. “I have a very
negative view concerning [the DDR pro-
cess],” he says. “It wasmeant to rehabilitate
people. But it did not go on that well.”
A country that hasjust ended a civil
war has a 40% chance of falling back into
conflict soon afterwards, says Paul Collier
of Oxford University. The risk falls by
about a percentage point for each year of
peace. Finding ways to lower that risk be-
came even more urgent with the upsurge
in internal conflicts that followed the end
of the cold war. When the Soviets and
Americansstopped funding client states,
many belligerents sought other revenue
streams, for example smuggling diamonds
out of west African war-zones, says Sebas-
tian von Einsiedel of the University of the
UN in Tokyo. Such groups were more likely
to splinter, because subgroups could fund
themselves. The rise of jihadist groups has
further complicated matters. Their ideo-
logical motivations mean they are harder
to negotiate with, and less likely to disarm
in return for cash or in-kind benefits.
But even asDDR has got harder, no less
is being asked of it. Some successes, and a
lack of alternatives, meant it came to be
used in circumstances where it was almost
bound to fail. The UN attempted a DDR
scheme in Haiti in 2004 to disarm drug-
traffickers rather than fighters; almost no
weapons were handed in. In 2015, 1,775
child soldiers in South Sudan were demo-
bilised, but after it spiralled back into civilered more than one year) came to $1.6bn.
But the execution is fraught with diffi-
culty. Combatants can be hard to identify.
They may be rejected by their families and
former neighbours. Their physical and psy-
chological scars may leave them in need of
long-term support. If militias are kept to-
gether, with former commanders oversee-
ing who takes part and handing out funds,
groups can more easily remobilise. But if
groups are disbanded, and participation is
individual, they may splinter into gangs of
drug-traffickers or mercenaries.Swords into ploughshares
That Liberia is at peace and able to hold a
credible election for president is impres-
sive. George Weah, a former footballer,
takes office on January 22nd in its first
democratic transition since 1944. Almost
250,000 people were killed in its two civil
wars. ADDR scheme after the first failed,
but one after the second has helped keep
the peace. AUN peacekeeping force with a
large Nigerian contingent disarmed former
combatants and put their weapons be-
yond use. Liberians still appreciate the role
DDR played. But their gratitude is fading, as
its limitations become clear.
Many ex-fighters are far from being up-
standing members of society. Plenty were
unwilling, or perhaps unable, to return to
communities they left as children. Like MrEnding civil warWhen the shooting stops
BOGOTÁ, GANTA AND KILINOCHCHI
Countries emerging from conflict have to strike grubby deals if peace is to holdInternational