The Grocer – 13 January 2018

analysis commodity prices

16 | The Grocer | 13 January 2018 Get the full story at thegrocer.co.uk

● Apple juice: China is set

to dominate the EU apple

juice market, according

to Informa’s Agribusiness

Intelligence. The country

had a strong apple crop of

45 million tonnes and has

been able to produce so

much apple juice concen-

trate it can compete in the

EU market despite the tari s

imposed. Prices for imports

of Chinese AJC in the EU are

expected to hit $1,150/t and

could reach $1,250 while

still undercutting the Polish.

● Fish: A group of NGOs

have sent a joint letter to the

European Commission call-

ing for it to withdraw all pro-

visions concerning electric

 shing from its legislative

proposals, which are set to

be voted on by the European

Parliament on 16 January.

They claim the Commission

did not heed earlier scien-

ti c advice warning against

the “destructive” method.

● Grass: A multinational

team of scientists claim they

have made a “signi cant”

breakthrough by identifying

the gene responsible for the

sti ening of grass cell walls.

It has enabled them to pro-

duce a GM grass that is more

digestible for cows.

prices digest

Ivory Coast has cut the fixed price to farmers to discourage harvesting

C

ocoa prices are set to
rise this year, but the
world isn’t facing a
shortage just yet.
Abundant global stocks
meant cocoa futures fell
throughout 2016, with prices
at 10-year lows a year ago.
However, they bounced back
early last year, when the gov-
ernment of major supplier Côte
d’Ivoire announced it was cut-
ting the  xed price paid to farm-
ers by 36% for the mid-crop
from April 2017.
It has maintained this
reduced price for the main
crop in 2017/18, despite expec-
tations of a small increase,
according to Rabobank’s 2018
Outlook report, which predicts
the current price of CFA700/
kg (94p/kg) will “discourage
harvesting ”.
Rabobank predicts produc-
tion in Côte d’Ivoire will fall to
1.8 million tonnes, down from
2 m tonnes in 2016/17. This will
push up prices although there is
still a global surplus.
“Cocoa prices are expected
to keep rising on the back of

Cocoa surplus set to

mitigate price rises

strong demand, driven by

developing nations’ taste for

luxury commodities and the

rise of upmarket chocolate prod-

ucts in mature markets, along

with a drop in the Ivorian crop

in 2017/18,” says Stefan Vogel,

head of agri-commodity mar-

kets research at Rabobank.

“This will lead to a third consec-

utive dip in the global surplus,

but already-large stocks should

prevent any spikes in prices.”

Media reports last week

warning chocolate could be

extinct in 40 years were based

on a 2016 study by the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration , which warned

cacao plants were under threat

of devastation from climate

change. However, scientists

across the world are working to

make cacao trees more resistant

to viral and fungal diseases.

Mars is backing one stud y

by the University of California,

which is researching the con-

trol of cocoa swollen shoot virus

disease and black pod disease.

Carina Perkins

PRICE CHANGE CHANGE

WINNERS & LOSERS £/tonne m-o-m % y-o-y %

Key climbers

Apple juice conc (EU) ,. . .

Coffee – arabica (ICE NY) , . –.

Crude oil (ICE) (EU) . . .

Copper (LME) (UK) , . .

Cotton (ICE NY) (US) ,. . –.

Key fallers

Cocoa butter (UK) , –. –.

Polystyrene (EU) , –. .

Palm oil (EU) . –. –.

Frozen conc OJ (ICE) (US) , –. –.

Sugar (London ICE) (UK) . –. –.

Source: Mintec. Note: All prices are indicative only and are representative within the country quoted

Global production of apples
is forecast to fall 3.2% on last
season to 76.2 million tonnes
in 2017/18. This adds upward
pressure to apple juice prices,
which remain high following
inclement weather during the
Polish spring, which adversely
a ected production.
Crude oil prices have risen
month on month as a result of a
tightening supply outlook due
to OPEC-led production cuts.
Tensions and unrest in Iran
have also driven prices up.
Palm oil prices fell month on

month, driven by increasing

production outlooks for the

2017/18 season, up 7% to 668m

tonnes.

Sugar prices have fallen,

driven by increased sugar

cane production from Brazil,

alongside an in ux of sugar

from Europe following the

abolition of the EU sugar quotas

at the end of September.

Commodity and Wholesale prices data

supplied by Mintec. Mintec is the principal

independent source of information for

commodities and raw materials. Mintec

monitors the key factors that are vital for efficient

procurement and provides sophisticated tools for analysing

and interpreting market information. http://www.mintecglobal.com

commodity prices: apple production shortfall to drive up juice price