The EconomistJanuary 27th 2018 The Americas 352S
OMETHING unexpected happened in
Chile’s presidential election last
month. In the first round in November, Se-
bastián Piñera, a centre-right former presi-
dent who was the favourite, stumbled. He
won only 37% of the vote, six points less
than the combined tally of two left-of-
centre candidates. But in the run-off an ex-
tra 1.4m voters turned out for Mr Piñera,
giving him a comfortable victory. Many
of them had stayed away in the first
round. Most were new recruits to Chile’s
middle class alarmed by the prospect of a
swing to the left under Mr Piñera’s oppo-
nent, Alejandro Guillier.
As Latin America begins a series of
presidential elections this year against a
background of sluggish economic growth
and anger over crime and corruption, the
Chilean result is a reminder that its mid-
dle classis bigger and more influential
than ever. But its political impact is far
from straightforward. And that is because
the term itself requires unpacking.
What is clear is that the region’s mid-
dle classhas grown. The World Bank as-
signs this status to people who have daily
incomes of $10-50, enough to offer some
security. By this measure, 34% of Latin
Americans were middle class in 2015, up
from 21% in 2003. A further 39% had in-
comes of $4-10 a day. They were no longer
poor but could easily become so again.
This rise in income—the result of faster
economic growth between 2003 and
2011—went side by side with a big expan-
sion in education and in ownership of
durable goods, from computers and cars
to wide-screen televisions. Some 42% of
respondents to Latinobarómetro, a re-
gionwide poll, describe themselves as be-
ing “middle class”.
These “middle sectors” as Ignacio
Walker, a Chilean politician and political
scientist calls them, are heterogeneous. Inthe past, Latin America’s middle class was
composed of independent professionals
and public employees. The new middle
class tends to work in the private sector, as
managers, technicians or owners of small
businesses. Theyare “aspirational and
emerging”, says Mr Walker. Many have
benefited from globalisation. Some may
work in the informal sector; they think of
themselves as self-made. Rather than be-
ing genuinely middle class, some simply
have more money than they used to.
A large middle class is often seen as a
guarantee of democratic stability: with
much to lose, it has an interest in property
rights, limits on state power and policy
continuity. But turmoil can precede stabil-
ity. Samuel Huntington, an American po-
litical scientist, noted in 1968 that“the true
revolutionary class” in modernising soci-
eties was the middle class, but that it be-
came more conservative as it grew.
It is not clear whether Latin America’s
middle classwill follow the same trajec-
tory. Historically, it tended to ally with
trade unions against oligarchic rule. But it
was sometimes counter-revolutionary.
Military coups against left-wing govern-ments in the 1970s were backed by a mid-
dle class fearful of socioeconomic disor-
der. There is an echo of that in the support
that early opinion polls give among the
better-off and better-educated in Brazil to
Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist. His
supporters blame the Workers’ Party of
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for an economic
slump thatslashed living standards and
saw a rise in crime as well as corruption.
Nonetheless, many of the new lower-
middle-class Brazilians love Lula, whom
they associate with earlier economic
growth and cheap student loans and
housing credits.
In today’s Latin America, the new
middle classes’ main demand is for better
services, from higher education to health
care and policing. But that doesn’t neces-
sarily imply public services, ora big state
and support for the left. “They oscillate
between ‘Let me progress’ and ‘Protect me
if I fall,’” says Sérgio Bitar, a Chilean for-
mer minister who advised Mr Guillier.
Take Bolivia, where a mestizomiddle
class has grown under Evo Morales, the
left-wing president who has governed
since 2006. It has now turned against him.
After protests, this week Mr Morales with-
drew a new criminal code that was seen
as oppressive. In Mexico the middle class
twice voted tactically to prevent Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, a left-wing popu-
list, from winning the presidency. In this
year’s contest Mr López Obrador is striv-
ing to appear more moderate. As less ex-
treme candidatesemerge in Brazil, its mid-
dle classmay shun Mr Bolsonaro.
This electoral cycle will show whether
Latin America’s middle classes have ma-
tured politically. If so, they will vote for
candidates of the left or right who offer a
well-judged mix of opportunity, social
protection and stability. If not, Mr Bolso-
naro and his ilk have a chance.Bello Fear of falling
The middle class can promote stability—but not alwaysAmericans to tell them they’ve won a lot-
tery. The prize is fictitious; the fees paid by
the victim to claim it are not.
The scam has lower barriers to entry
than the business of shipping Colombian
cocaine to the United States, another thriv-
ing activity in Jamaica. Weapons for both
come from the exchange of drugs for guns
with Haiti. Scammers fight over access to
contact lists. Couriers bringing in cash
sometimes abscond, provoking revenge
killings. Gunmen rob scammers when
they pick up loot at remittance agencies.
Some Jamaicans see little wrong with
bilking Americans. Adidja “Vybz Kartel”Palmer, known to his fans as the “worl’
boss” of Jamaican music, sang“Dem call it
scam, me call it a reparation.” He is serving
a life sentence in jail for murder.
The government takes a stern view of
the violence that scamming leads to. Un-
der the state of emergency, the police and
army can search premises and detain sus-
pects without a warrant. The order sus-
pends habeas corpus and allows courts to
hold trials behind closed doors. Parlia-
ment can extend it after 14 days by a two-
thirds majority. That will require votes
from the opposition, but it looks as if the
government can count on those. The emer-gency is popular with residents, even
though few think it is a cure for violence.
Its success depends on how well the po-
lice and army put it into practice. The
omens from the police are worrying. At
Christmas they staged a “sick-out” to force
the government to raise their pay (they
failed). In January a prosecutor charged
two officers and other alleged members of
a gang with murder, robbery and rape.
The emergency started with the busting
of a contraband-fuel racket. But after two
days, gunmen killed one man and injured
five at a gangland funeral. Few tourists will
be tempted to explore St Jamesjust now. 7РЕЛИЗ
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