The Economist Asia - 27.01.2018

The EconomistJanuary 27th 2018 41

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1

I

T IS not cold inside the Municipal Family

Support Centre, but Barbara Choinska

keeps her coat on, in the manner of people

to whom the world has been hostile. The

centre is the main social-services point in

Siedlce, a town 90km east of Warsaw. Ms

Choinska has five children, no husband

and no job. “She struggles to make sure the

children are dressed and do their home-

work,” explains Adam Kowalczyk, the cen-

tre’s director. “We send someone each

week to help her maintain basic standards,

so they don’t get taken away by the state.”

One thing Ms Choinska no longer wor-

ries about is having money for food and

rent. In 2016 Poland’s new government, led

by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party,

launched the “Family 500Plus” pro-

gramme, which pays a monthly stipend of

500 zlotys ($148) per child, starting with the

second. Indigent parents like Ms Choinska

qualify for their first child, too, so she gets a

whopping2,500 zlotys per month. In Po-

land, that is not far short of the median

after-tax household income—and benefi-

ciaries have no obligation to work.

The programme has transformed the

Polish welfare state. Mr Kowalczyk’s cen-

tre, which distributesthe stipends, has

seen its annual budget grow from about

35m to 94m zlotys. The World Bank esti-

mates the programme has cut the rate of

extreme child poverty (defined as less than

1,500 zlotys per month for a family of four)

popular it is, they embrace it. Jacek Rostow-

ski, who served as finance minister under

Civic Platform, says that it is affordable: it

costs about 1.3% ofGDP, while the World

Bank expects Poland’s economy to grow by

4% this year. Civic Platform now cam-

paigns on a promise to expand 500Plus to

coverall first-born children too.

Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Mora-

wiecki, boasts thatPiS has defied conven-

tional wisdom, favouring the “regular guy”

over the “elite”. In fact, child stipends are

common in rich European countries such

as Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands,

France and Britain. Poland’s 500Plus is gen-

erous relative to average earnings, but the

country’s overall spending on social pro-

tection is still only about 20% ofGDP, well

below the EU average of about 28%.

Historically, welfare-state programmes

have been introduced by the centre-left

(such as Labour parties in the Nordic coun-

tries and Britain) or the centre-right (the

Gaullistsin France, the Christian Demo-

crats in Germany and Italy). Often they

were introduced precisely in order to keep

extremistsfrom winning power. Yet in Po-

from 11.9% to 2.8%.

500Plus is popular, especially in places

like Siedlce. Many in Poland’s small towns

and villages felt that the previous govern-

ment, led by the liberal Civic Platform

party, looked down on them. Over the past

two decades, the economy grew rapidly

but inequality also rose, with poverty

more common in rural areas. This is partly

why provincial Poles voted forPiS. The

500Plus programme fitsPiS’s Catholic, pro-

family ideology. PiS’s voters are more likely

than liberal ones to have two or more chil-

dren—and a fixed stipend buys more in ru-

ral areas than in pricey Warsaw.

At first, liberal politicians called the pro-

gramme a budget-buster. Now, seeing how

Europe’s welfare states

Battle of the benefits

STOCKHOLM AND WARSAW

Populists are winning votes byoffering more generous welfare. How can

mainstream parties respond?

Europe

Also in this section

43 Italy’s eurosceptics

44 Ukraine and Russia

44 Finland’s popular president

46 Charlemagne: Torn over Tehran

Mostly growing^1

Source: OECD

Government social spending, as % of GDP

15

20

25

30

35

1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 16

France

Germany

Italy Poland

Sweden

Britain

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