45
REX FEATURES/AP PHOTO; DATA: COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG
public office, after a 2013 conviction for tax fraud.
But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t return to power.
Since last year, Berlusconi has been working behind
the scenes to pull together a center-right coalition
that has a shot at winning the most votes in Italy’s
March 4 election. If that happens, Berlusconi could
hold sway over the next government, giving him
the power to hand-pick a new prime minister and
set policy, including cutting taxes and pushing back
against European Union rules.
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement
party, co-founded by comedian Beppe Grillo, is
leading Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, 27 percent
to 16 percent in polling. But Berlusconi has assem-
bled a coalition with three other parties to become
the biggest bloc, with about 38 percent. His cam-
paign team estimates it could claim a majority
if it exceeds 40 percent. “Berlusconi is unbeat-
able at aggregating everything that can be aggre-
gated,” says Roberto Weber, chairman of pollster
Ixe Institute. “He is the best campaigner and the
most effective communicator.”
After dominating Italian politics for decades,
thanks in part to his command of TV, Berlusconi
is shifting his strategy to focus on digital, taking a
page out of the playbook of Five Star. The upstart
party didn’t exist the last time Berlusconi won an
election, in 2008, yet it’s risen to the forefront of
Italian politics by harnessing the power of social
media and mobilizing disaffected voters. “It’s true
that Five Star beat us to the web,” says Sestino
Giacomoni, one of Berlusconi’s closest advisers.
“But we’re catching up fast.”
Berlusconi has about a million likes on Facebook
and 19,000 followers on Twitter, compared with
Five Star’s candidate for prime minister, Luigi Di
Maio, with about 1.1 million and 263,000, respec-
tively. That all pales in comparison to Grillo’s social
media footprint, with 2 million Facebook likes
and 2.5 million Twitter followers. Still, the strat-
egy appears to be paying off for Berlusconi. Forza
Italia has gained about 4 percentage points since
relaunching his Facebook page in October, accord-
ing to Bloomberg’s composite of election polls.
As a result, Berlusconi is edging aside Northern
League leader Matteo Salvini as de facto head of the
right. Antonio Tajani, president of the European
Parliament, has been touted as Berlusconi’s pre-
ferred choice as premier, though he might also
accept the current center-left prime minister, Paolo
Gentiloni, as a compromise. The Northern League
is the wild card, with Salvini indicating he could
seek a deal with Five Star after the election.
“If anything, from outside, I’ll be able to be the
director,” Berlusconi said in a Jan. 16 interview on
Canale 5, a TV station that he owns. “That’s a bigword—I’ll make suggestions and above all keep a
close watch to ensure the center-right government
carries out our program.” Berlusconi remains in his
element on TV and supplements his social media
presence with several talk show appearances a
week. When his motorcade arrived at the Canale 5
studio near Rome’s Colosseum, he’d already had
his makeup done. On air, he joked about how stu-
dents and seniors visiting the botanical museum
at his summer villa in Sardinia had stolen his
entire crop of herbal Viagra. “They took it all,” he
grinned. “They didn’t leave even a blade of grass.”
But the campaigner who used to draw crowds
so big he’d block traffic has cut back on large-scale
public events. His advisers, who asked not to be
named discussing his strategy, say his age and
health, as well as new limits on party financing,
were behind the shift. Berlusconi has had a pace-
maker since 2006, and he had heart surgery in- Nevertheless, he’s been working for 16 to 18
hours a day since campaigning for his party began
in January and sleeping only three or four hours a
night, according to Giacomoni.
Berlusconi doesn’t use a cellphone because,
according to aides, his phone has been tapped
thousands of times during past court probes.
Nowadays, his team uses iPads to show him draft
posts for Facebook and Twitter as he looks to posi-
tion himself as the antithesis of Five Star. He’s keen
to know which posts generate the most interest—
good or bad—and offers constant feedback.
No matter how good Berlusconi gets at learning
social media tricks, his appeal to voters will likely
be rooted in their memories of the past. “People
are going for Berlusconi as a moderate,” says
Weber, the pollster. “He’s the best-known, calm-
est, most coherent, and most reassuring leader.”
—John Follain
THE BOTTOM LINE Berlusconi is working behind the scenes to
assemble a center-right coalition for Italy’s March election that could
give him the power to hand-pick the next prime minister. Berlusconi38%
27
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Berlusconi’s
Forza ItaliaNorthern
LeagueBrothers of ItalyUs With ItalyFive Star
MovementDemocratic
PartyLeft-wing alliance○ Latest general
election polls POLITICS January 29, 2018