68
ILLUSTRATION
BY
GEORGE
WYLESOL.
DATA:
BUREAU
OF
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
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Theeconomyhasbeenperhapsthebrightestspotof
DonaldTrump’sunconventionalpresidency.Areces-
sionwouldtarnishthis,whichis presumablywhyhegets
soworkedupaboutperceivedmisstepsbytheFederal
Reserve.Butbyonemeasure,economicgrowthis already
slowerduringtheTrumperathanduringBarackObama’s
eightyearsaspresident.
Thatmeasureisgrossdomesticincome.GDIispart
ofthesamequarterlynationaleconomicaccountingby
theU.S.DepartmentofCommerce’sBureauofEconomic
Analysisthatgivesusgrossdomesticproductbutis
releaseda monthlater.Thetwonumbersshould,inthe-
ory, beidentical,buttheyneverquitearebecauseofthe
vagariesofreal-worlddata.Ina 2010paper,economist
JeremyNalewaik—thenattheFed,nowatMorganStanley—
madethecasethat“GDIbetterreflectsthebusinesscycle
fluctuationsintrueoutputgrowth.”
Thepaperhadsomeconsequences.TheBEAstarted
givingGDIsomeattentioninitsGDPnewsreleasesand
publishingtheaverageofGDPandGDI.Also,theFederal
ReserveBankofPhiladelphianowcalculatesa statis-
ticallysmoothedmeldingofGDPandGDI,devisedin
part byNalewaik,thatit callsGDPplus.Thepresidential
growthratesadmittedlydependa lotonthestartingquar-
teronechooses,especiallyforObama,whotookoffice
amidtheworstrecessionin 75 years.Also,whilegrowth
rates havebeenaboutthesameoronlymoderatelyhigher
underTrump,peoplearen’twrongtothinktheeconomy
is better.Morearesharingingrowthnowbecausethe
long expansionhasbroughtworkersoffthesidelines.<BW>
�Foxis a businesscolumnistforBloombergOpinion
◼ LAST THING
●BUTWAIT,IT
GETSBETTER
OfAmericansage
25-54,80%hadjobs
in August,according
totheBureauof
LaborStatistics,the
highestprime-age
employmentrate in
morethana decade
andperhapsa
bettermeasureof
economichealth
thaneitherGDPor
GDIgrowth.
With Bloomberg Opinion
● SMOOTH
CALCULATOR
Accordingto
BEAdata,GDIhas
grownata
2.3%
annualizedpace
sinceTrumptook
office,vs.2.4%during
Obama’stwoterms.
●TIMINGISEVERYTHING
If youmeasurefromthequarterbeforetheytook
office,Trumpleadsin GDIgrowth,2.5%to2.1%.
Measurefromthelastquarterofthefirstyear in
office(becauseit takestimeforpoliciestohave
aneffect),andit’sTrump2.5%toObama2.4%.
●ONTHEJOB
Payrollemployment
hasgrownata 1.5%
annualpaceduring
Trump’stimein
office,fasterthanthe
1%duringObama’s
entirepresidency
butslowerthanthe
1.9%ofObama’s
secondterm.
By Justin Fox
GDI and GDP Paint Different
Pictures of Growth
Realannualizedgrowthratesince
firstquarterofadministration
Obama Trump
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic income
Average
2.1%
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7