The Economist Asia - 24.02.2018

The EconomistFebruary 24th 2018 29

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1

U

NTIL America gets a grand military pa-

rade, a drive along the wharf at Naval

Station Norfolk, in Virginia, is the next-best

thing. Destroyers, missile-cruisers, nuc-

lear-powered submarines and, most fear-

some of all, two 333-metre (1,092-foot) Nim-

itz-class aircraft-carriers, are enough to

make Americans’ spines tingle and ene-

mies shudder. But the menace that most

concerns Captain Dean VanderLey, the

chief civil engineer for the navy in the mid-

Atlantic region, is one that is undeterred by

military might. In the 100 years since the

base was first built, the sea level has risen

by half a metre. In a major hurricane, he

says, while surveying the piers and a road

linking them to an airfield, “a lot of this

would probably be flooded”.

Captain VanderLey is not alone in fret-

ting about the military consequences of

climate change. A reportpublished on Jan-

uary 26th by the Department of Defence

(DoD) found that more than half of the

3,500 sites surveyed are already reporting

climate-related problems (see map).

Droughts are leading to water shortages,

heatwaves are causing some live-fire exer-

cises to be cancelled and shifting wind pat-

terns are disrupting aircraft sorties.

Then there is the flooding. On February

18th scientists involved in the federal gov-

ernment’s National Climate Assessment, a

four-yearly exercise mandated by Con-

gress, presented an update to the last re-

launched by North Korea, could be under

water. Diego Garcia, a staging post on an

Indian Ocean atoll crucial for operations in

the Persian Gulf, may be submerged too.

President Donald Trump’s policies,

which include pulling America out of the

Paris climate agreement to limit global

warming and championing coal, make all

this more likely. In the past two months his

administration has put his climate-scepti-

cal stamp on the national-security and de-

fence strategies. These documents, which

each administration must drawup, lay out

a high-level plan for keeping America safe.

Under Barack Obama, they listed climate

change as a strategic threat to be assessed

and countered. Yet in a contradiction that is

typical of this White House, other parts of

the government are carrying on with plan-

ning for a warmer planet regardless.

As global temperatures rise so does the

likelihood of extreme weather, with calls

for militaryassistance in disaster relief.

Last September the USS Wasphelicopter-

carrier was sailing from Norfolk to Japan

when it was diverted to hurricane-struck

USVirgin Islands, Dominica and Puerto

Rico. Melting sea ice in the Arctic opens up

a new theatre of operations, especially

against a belligerent Russia. As it thaws, the

Bering Strait could become another strate-

gic choke-point like those of Hormuz (the

gateway to the Gulf) or Malacca (which

connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans).

Some studies have linked global warming

to unrest such as the Arab spring. James

Mattis, the defence secretary, has called cli-

mate change “a driver of instability”.

In December, days before he unveiled

his climate-changeless national-security

strategy, Mr Trump signed a defence bill

that called climate change “a direct threat”

and required the DoDto report which as-

sets are at risk. He kept his chief climate en-

port from November, showing that sea lev-

els are rising twice as fast as 25 yearsago. In

2009 the DoDfound that 128 coastal instal-

lations, including 56 naval ones, would be

at risk if sea levels rose by a metre. The

Navy’s sites alone were valued at $100bn.

In 2016 the Union ofConcerned Scientists

found that nine strategically important

bases, including several in the Hampton

Roads region around Norfolk, could per-

manently lose half their land area by 2100

if waters rise by two metres.

Critical outposts abroad are similarly

vulnerable. Twenty years from now a new

$1bn radar installed on the Marshall Is-

lands, which helps to shield America and

its allies from nuclear-tipped missiles

Climate and national security

Unchanging

NORFOLK, VIRGINIA

One department of the Trump administration thinks climate change is a hoax.

Another sees it as a threat to America’s security

United States

Also in this section

30 Guns and protest

32 The Dreamer deadline

32 Public-sector unions on trial

33 A Chicago ritual

34 Lexington: The new normal

Base thoughts

Military sites reporting climate-related* problems

September 2015

*Flooding, extreme temperatures,

wind, drought, wildfire

Source: United States

Department of Defence

Naval Station

Norfolk, Virginia