The EconomistFebruary 24th 2018 Middle East and Africa 412 The UAEhas been even more active.
Early last year the Emirates Red Crescent
launched a humanitarian mission in
Ghayda—by August the Emirati army had
taken over the mission. The UAEhas cap-
tured a string of southern ports, such as
Mukalla, Aden and Mokha. It controls Ye-
men’s only gas-liquefaction plant, at Bal-
haf, and an oil-export terminal, at al-Shihr.
The strategicisland ofSocotra looks in-
creasingly like an Emirati base. The UAE
also runs two military camps in the remote
Hadramawt region, where its troops have
trained some 25,000 local fighters.
In securing the ports, say analysts, the
UAE’s goal is to enhance the position of its
own port at Jebel Ali, the region’s largest,
either by stifling competition or directing
traffic in its direction.
Many welcome the Saudis and Emira-
tis. “Forget such outmoded notions of
sovereignty,” says Abdelhadi Tamimi, an
official in Hadramawt. “We can all profit
from trade.” The UAEis financing hospitals
and a new power plant in the energy-
starved region. Officials in Seiyun hail a
new counter-terrorism force, trained by
the Saudis, as a bulwark against al-Qaeda.
Locals also say Emirati-trained fighters are
more disciplined than Yemeni soldiers
and fleece them less at checkpoints.
But others fear a creeping loss of con-
trol. The Saudis and Emiratis run their own
detention centres and keep local officials in
the dark. Smugglersin Mahra complain of
a loss of business, as the newcomers crack
down. Many in the region speak Mahri, an
ancient Semitic tongue, and fear that the
Gulfies will impose Arabic. The handing
out of passports causes alarm. Socotra has
60,000 people and Mahra perhaps
160,000. In theory both could be annexed.
Meanwhile, tension is increasing be-
tween Saudi and Emirati proxies. While
Saudi Arabia seeks to stand up the old
northern-based army under Mr Mohsen,
the UAE trains fighters from the south,
many of whom would like to re-establish
South Yemen, which merged with the
more populous north in 1990. Emirati-
backed separatists took control of Aden
last month. Some believe the move had
Saudi assent and is part of a divide-and-
rule strategy by the two Gulf states.
The many new Gulf-backed militias are
accelerating Yemen’s fragmentation. Tribal
leaders are exploiting the chaos. Pretend-
ers claiming to represent the duwailat, or
principalities, that made up the British pro-
tectorate of Aden are dusting off old flags.
A self-declared council led by Abdullah al-
Afrar, who calls himself sultan of Mahra
and Socotra, has vowed to resist the Saudi-
led “occupation”. “We fear Yemen will nev-
er be united again,” says Mr Afrar. 7HajjahMazraqAreas where
al-Qaeda
operatesAmranBeihanWadiaSharorahSAUDI ARABIAYEMENDJIBOUTIOMANERITREASana’aAdenTaizHADRAMAWTMAHRAMukallaal-ShihrBalhafSeiyun Ghayda
MaribHodeidaMokhaSaadaGulf of AdenArabian SeaRed
SeaSocotra (to Yemen)Former north-
south Yemen
borderAreas where
al-Qaeda
operatesSparsely populatedAreas of control, February 2018
Houthi Saudi-led coalition
Source: Risk Intelligence150 kmT
HE well-heeled residents of Legetafo
are not used to demonstrations. The
town on the eastern edge of Ethiopia’scap-
ital, Addis Ababa, is home to politicians
and businessfolk. Although nearby towns
in the region of Oromia, which surrounds
the capital, have been hit by anti-govern-
ment protests since late 2014, these streets
have remained mostly quiet.
Yet this month demonstrations broke
out there too, as people joined a strike to
force the ruling coalition to release more
political prisoners (in addition to the thou-
sands it has already freed since the start of
the year). “Almost everyone” took to the
streets, says Zenebe, a local restaurant-
owner. Things quickly turned ugly. People
set up roadblocks and burned tyres. The
army responded with tear gas and bullets.
Faced with spreading protests and ethnic
attacks on Tigrayans (who are about 6% of
the population but dominate politics), the
government announced a state of emer-
gency, giving itself wide powers to ban
protests and arrest people.
The declaration appears at odds with
recent signs that the ruling Ethiopian Peo-ple’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF) was willing to allow more democ-
racy. In August it lifted a ten-month-long
state of emergency, imposed after protests
in 2016. But rather than signalling a retreat
from reform, the new state of emergency
appears to have been triggered by the resig-
nation the day before of Hailemariam De-
salegn, the prime minister.
Hailemariam said he was bowing out
to allow for “reforms”, but his departure
has opened up a succession struggle with-
in the EPRDF, which has governed Ethiopia
since it first seized power as a band of re-
bels in 1991. It is made up of four ethnically
based parties. The Tigrayan People’s Liber-
ation Front (TPLF), which represents Ti-
grayans, has long dominated the coalition.
But the TPLF’s power is weakening. The
Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation
(OPDO), which represents the largest eth-
nic group in the coalition, was seen for
years as a puppet of the TPLF. Under Lem-
ma Megersa, its charismatic new leader, it
has rebranded itselfas a quasi-opposition
party. It now wants to take the helm,
backed by a belief among Oromos that it is
their turn to have one of their own in
charge. A number of members of the co-
alition suspect that people within the
OPDOare encouraging street demonstra-
tions to strengthen their hand in the suc-
cession struggle.
The emergency regulations may buy
the coalition time to agree on a new prime
minister and implement reforms. But they
also pose a delicate problem for the OPDO,
which has taken to repeating many of the
demands of the protesters, including a call
for the release of political prisoners. Over
the coming days it will need to explain to
angry youngsters in Oromia why it ap-
pears to have acquiesced again in the sus-
pension of their political rights. If OPDO
MPs vote in favour of the measure when
parliament meets over the coming fort-
night, there may be even more anger. 7Ethiopia’s state of emergencyBack to the iron
fist
ADDIS ABABA
Protest, repress, reform, repeatCry freedom