40 The Americas The EconomistApril 14th 2018
2V
ILA JOANINHA, on the edge of Dia-
dema, a suburb of São Paulo, is the
kind of gritty neighbourhood that voted
for the Workers’ Party (PT) of Luiz Inácio
Lula da Silva, the former president who
on April 7th began a 12-year jail sentence
for corruption. But crime and unemploy-
ment have hit the area hard and there is
anger about graft. Vila Joaninha’s loyal-
ties are wavering. Lindomar Santos Gal-
vão, a gardener, says that in the presiden-
tial election due in October he might
support Jair Bolsonaro, a former army
captain and maverick seven-term con-
gressman of extreme right-wing, macho
views. “I think he’d bring order,” he says.
Two of his colleagues in the Vila Joa-
ninha residents’ association are less sure.
“Bolsonaro could win,” says Cleber
Souza, the president. “I don’t support him
but we need new people.” Silvia Souza
(no relation), a medical secretary, thinks
the PTstill has some credibility “because
of the opportunities it gave” when it was
in power. “People who stole much more
and did much less than Lula are not going
to prison,” she adds.
Lula leads the opinion polls for the
election, with 37% support, according to
Datafolha, a pollster. He is almost 20
points ahead of Mr Bolsonaro, his nearest
rival. The PTinsists that he remains a can-
didate. But even if his lawyers free him
pending further appeals, Brazil’s electoral
law will probably bar him: anyone con-
victed of corruption, with his sentence
confirmed on first appeal, cannot run.
The jailing of Lula is merely the most
extraordinary twist in an election that
was already like no other in Brazil, at least
since 1989 when Fernando Collor, a previ-
ously obscure conservative populist, won
against a crowded field. The past six con-
tests have come down to a fight between
the left-of-centre PTand the centre-rightBrazilian Party of Social Democracy
(PSDB), which ruled from 1995 to 2002 un-
der Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Brazil is traditionally moderate. In a
normal election, Mr Bolsonaro would
have no chance. But Brazilian politics has
been turned upside down by the eco-
nomic slump of 2015-16, a deterioration in
security and the conviction ofdozens of
politicians, apart from Lula, for corruption
in the Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) investigation.
In 2016 congress impeached Dilma Rous-
seff, Lula’s protégée and successor, for fis-
cal misdemeanours. Her successor, Michel
Temer, is even less popular. While bringing
about a still-modest economic recovery, he
has had to fight off corruption allegations.
The result is an anti-political mood.
Campaigning through social media, Mr
Bolsonaro, an evangelical Protestant, at-
tracts the support of frustrated youth and
of farmers scared by rural crime. Support
for Lula may now splinter among several
candidates. No otherPTleader has Lula’s
political stature. There are two far-left can-
didates. And there is Ciro Gomes, a soft-left
former minister in the PT-led coalition gov-
ernments, who has a chance, especially ifLula endorses him.
On balance, Lula’s absence from the
ballot will hurt Mr Bolsonaro by making
the election less polarised. That could
help Joaquim Barbosa, a former chief jus-
tice who is black, popular and well-
known as a scourge of corruption. He is
considering a presidential run. The more
fragmented the field, the fewer votes will
be needed to make the inevitable run-off,
and the greater the uncertainty. The shape
of the race will not become clear until ear-
ly August, when parties have to choose
their candidates and coalition partners.
A side-effect of Lava Jato is that cor-
porate donations are now banned. How
much public money and free television
time each candidate getsdepends on the
congressional strength of his or her co-
alition. That hurts Mr Bolsonaro and
helps the PSDB’s Geraldo Alckmin, the
long-serving governor of São Paulo. He
would build on Mr Temer’s economic re-
forms but is deeply uncharismatic.
The biggest question is how much the
country has really been changed by the
past few years. “At the start [of the cam-
paign] people want new things,” says Luiz
Felipe D’Ávila, who is advising Mr Alck-
min. But as it goes on, he says, “the power
of mayors and the party machine” will
tell. The PSDB, the PTand Mr Temer’s cen-
trist Brazilian Democratic Movement are
the only parties with local organisations
in 90% or more of Brazil’s municipalities,
points out Ricardo Sennes, a political con-
sultant. “We don’t buy the idea that Brazil
has changed totally.”
The next six months will show wheth-
er that is right, or whether public anger
amplified by social media has torn up the
political rules. Much is at stake. After its
years of turmoil, Brazil desperately needs
some calm expertise, as well as integrity,
at the top.Bello Up for grabs
Brazil’s election after the jailing of Lulazuelans will be treated more indulgently.
Unlimited numbers will be able to apply
for a “democraticresponsibility” visa, an
acknowledgment of the country’s “grave
democratic crisis” and the refuge it provid-
ed when Chile was a dictatorship in the
1970s and 1980s.
Unlawful immigrants from all coun-
tries who arrived in Chile by April 8th will
be allowed to stay. However, Mr Piñera
said the government would get tough with
people-smugglers and make it easier to ex-
pel anyone who violates immigration
laws. A new “migration-policy council”
will keep updating the country’s strategy.The visa regime will take effect under a
presidential decree while the new law is
debated in the congress.
José Tomás Vicuña, director of the Jesuit
Service for Migrants, says the changes are
“worrying”. He fears that expulsions will
violate the right of immigrants to due pro-
cess. Father Vicuña calls the measures di-
rected at Haitians “arbitrary”. And he ar-
gues: “The country will spend more
money on controlling borders and proba-
bly end up with a greater number of un-
documented immigrants.”
The government’s new policy is likely
to get a mixed reception in Quilicura, a dis-trict in the north of Santiago where most
immigrants are Haitians. Even before Mr
Piñera’s amnesty, the local authorities had
made public services available to all, re-
gardless of their legal status. They provide
Spanish lessons and help in finding work.
Creole-speakers work in schools and
health centres. This reduces the risk that
immigrants will cluster in ghettos, sell
drugs and trade illegally, says Juan Car-
rasco, the mayor. Mr Piñera’s new policy
will help them, by enshrining their right to
stay and to use public services. But it may
make some Haitians feel more than ever
like second-class non-citizens. 7