The Economist Asia Edition - April 14, 2018

The EconomistApril 14th 2018 5

GERMANY

SPECIAL REPORT

A STUDY OF attitudes towards immigration in Germany,

published in July last year by More in Common, a cam-

paigning organisation, identified five distinct groups of broadly

similar size: liberal cosmopolitans (all in favour), humanitarian

sceptics (for an open-border policy, but concerned about integra-

tion), economic pragmatists (supporting it when it pays), moder-

ate opponents (advocating full repatriation in due course) and

radical opponents (strongly against). The report points to the in-

creasing fragmentation of the German electorate, and to a shift

from economic debates to cultural ones.

The election sent a record seven parties to the federal parlia-

ment (see chart), up from five last time round and four for much

of the post-war era. The share of the three bigVolksparteien(peo-

ple’s parties), the CDU/CSUand the SPD, fell from 67% to 53% of
the vote. Smaller parties did well, with big gains for the far-right
AfD, which came second in the formerly communist east and
first in one of its states, Saxony. There were gains, too, for the pro-
market Free Democrats (FDP) and for the liberal-environmental-
ist Greens. Their rival on the left, the socialist Left party, slightly
increased its share of the vote as well.
Immediately after the election the SPDmade it clear that it
wanted to go back into opposition to renew itself after four years
as part of a grand coalition. The CDUopened talks with the only
other possible coalition partners that would be able to deliver a
majority: the FDPand the Greens. But Green lefty openness
proved too difficult to reconcile with FDPpro-businessconserva-
tism, so after much arm-twisting the SPDwas persuaded to re-
consider in January and eventually agreed to enter another
grand coalition. The alternative would have been a minority
government, which Mrs Merkel had said she did not want, or a
fresh election, for which the SPD’s miserable poll results did not
augur well. In early March the SPD’s members approved the deal
with a two-thirds majority.
That was a huge relief for the CDU/CSU. It had felt obliged
to offer the SPDa generous number of ministerial posts as sweet-
eners, including the mighty finance ministry, now held by Olaf
Scholz, a fiscally conservative former mayor of Hamburg. The co-
alition deal also offers more child care, tax cuts for middle and
lower earners, increased infrastructure investment and strict
new limits on the use of short-term work contracts. The CDU/
CSUgot agreement that refugee arrivals will be capped at
180,000-220,000 a year and family reunification will be limited
to 1,000 a month plus “hardship cases”. But there is little sign of a
wider vision for Germany and its place in the world.
The AfDis now the largest opposition party in the Bundes-
tag, which strengthens its calls for a closed Germany. The party’s
co-leader and parliamentary boss, Alexander Gauland, has said

Germans would not want to live next door to Jérôme Boateng, a

half-Ghanaian player in Germany’s national football team. The

party is part of a wider web of views and organisations that are

uncomfortable with the diversity of modern Germany. The anti-

Islam movementPEGIDAmarches through (mostly eastern) Ger-

man cities chanting, “we are the people.” “Finis Germania”, a

bestselling book by Rolf Peter Sieferle, a historian, claims that the

country let in refugees out ofself-hate induced by post-war guilt.

At the opposite end of the political spectrum from the AfD

are the Greens, the party of cosmopolitans. It is booming in polls

and confident under a dynamic new leadership. But the real bat-

tle will take place in the muddy ground in between those two

poles, occupied by the humanitarian sceptics, the economic

pragmatists and the moderate opponents. “The future depends

on who wins over the ambivalent,” says Timo Lochocki, a Ger-

man expert on populism.

Anopen-versus-closed divide runs though all the major

parties. Many on the centre-right are in favour of creating a firmer

GermanLeitkultur(lead culture), revoking dual citizenship and

outlawing the burqa. Some deem Islam “not part of Germany”.

All of this could blow up when Mrs Merkel steps down, as she is

expected to do by the next election, due in 2021. On one side are

Merkel loyalists like Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the new gen-

eral secretary of the CDU; on the other

more conservative figures like Jens Spahn,

the new health minister and a long-term

critic of Mrs Merkel’s refugee policy. The

SPDcannot decide whether it has given

too much or too little attention to bread-

and-butter issues such as pay. The social-

ist Left party, too, is torn between metro-

politan voters, among whom it gained support at the election,

and nativist ones, mostly in the east, some ofwhom deserted it.

The pro-businessFDPis similarly divided.

There is a template for this: the Netherlands. Like its Dutch

counterpart, politics in Germany may soon be dominated by an

economically liberal but socially conservative party, a rump so-

cial democratic party competing with greens for the main left-of-

centre ground, and other, smaller parties offering different com-

binations of left and right, open and closed. Who wins and who

loses ground will be determined mainly by two factors: immi-

gration and national identity. 7

Politics

Between open and

closed

The old party system is fragmenting

It’s complicated

Bundestag*, by party, % of seats

Sources: ParlGov; Federal Returning Officer *Election result†Includes predecessors

75 50 25 0 25 50

Kohl

Merkel

Schröder

Chancellor

1990

1994

1998

2002

Current

2005

2009

2013

2017

Grand

coalition

Grand

coalition

Grand coalition

Parties in

government

Parties in

opposition

The

Left†

Alternative

for Germany

(AfD)

Christian

Democrats

(CDU/CSU)

Free

Democrats (FDP)

The

Greens

Social

Democrats

(SPD)

Indep.

The AfD is now the largest opposition party in the

Bundestag, which strengthens its calls for a closed

Germany