The Economist Asia Edition - April 14, 2018

The EconomistApril 14th 2018 41

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1

B

ASHAR AL-ASSAD’S chemical attack

on the town of Douma on April 7th has

been widely condemned. But punishing

Syria’s dictator is simpler than devising a

coherent Syria policy. If Donald Trump or-

ders a limited bombing campaign on Mr

Assad’s palaces and military assets, it will

not alter the course of the Syrian war.

Thanks to his Iranian and Russian protec-

tors, nothing now can realistically prevent

Mr Assad from, in some sense, winning.

A retaliatory strike might at least change

Mr Assad’s calculus about the use of chem-

icals as a way to terrorise the resistance. If

he concluded, belatedly, that the price he

will pay for using banned weapons again

has become too high, Mr Trump would be

justified in taking some credit. But, in other

ways, Mr Trump is sowing confusion

about America’s aims in Syria and threat-

ening to undermine both its interests and

those of its regional allies.

In a speech supposedly about infra-

structure investment on March 29th, the

president declared: “We’re knocking the

hell out ofISIS. We’ll be coming out of Syria

like very soon. Let the other people take

care of it now.” On April 3rd Mr Trump said

that having been “very successful against

ISIS...it is time to come back home.”

At almost the same time, General Jo-

seph Votel and Brett McGurk, America’s

military commander in the region and the

State Department’s envoy to the coalition

against Islamic State (ISISorIS), were deliv-

area east of the Euphrates. The river acts as

an informal demarcation line between

them and the Russian, Iranian and Syrian

government forces, which control the terri-

tory to its west.

In January Rex Tillerson, then Ameri-

ca’s secretary of state, made a far-ranging

speech about the administration’s aims in

Syria. Promising to not repeat Barack

Obama’s mistakes in Iraq and Libya, Mr

Tillerson said that America’s military com-

mitment would be conditions-based rath-

er than time-limited. American troops

would stay in Syria long after the defeat of

IS, both to ensure that it does not return

and to keep Iranian and regime forces from

entering the newly-liberated areas. He out-

lined five policy goals: preventingISand

al-Qaeda from re-emerging in Syria; sup-

porting the UN-led peace process; counter-

ing the influence of Iran; helping to bring

about the safe repatriation of Syrian refu-

gees; and clearing the country of weapons

of massdestruction.

As a statement of intent, it was far re-

moved from Mr Trump’s campaign com-

mitment to destroyISquickly and then get

out. Mr Tillerson won praise from tradi-

tional foreign-policy experts, but there was

scepticism too. In congressional testimony,

Robert Ford, America’s last ambassador to

Syria and a bitter critic of Mr Obama’s fail-

ure to arm moderate rebels before they

were displaced by more extreme groups,

described Mr Tillerson’s goals as admira-

ble but mostly unachievable, given the re-

sources available and the reality on the

ground.

Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are in

the north-west of the country, far from

American forces, said Mr Ford. The UN

peace process has faded into irrelevance,

he added. Moreover, the American force in

the east will have little impact on Iran’s

clout in the west; most refugees want to re-

ering a very different message. Although

the jihadists had been kicked out of most

of the territory they once controlled in Syr-

ia, there were still pockets to be cleared,

they said. General Votel warned that “the

hard part is in front of us”. The tasks ahead,

he said, are consolidation, stabilisation

and reconstruction—the first two of which

require a continuing military presence.

That presence currently comprises

about 2,000 American troops in eastern

Syria, largely engineers and special-opera-

tions soldiers, who are working and fight-

ing alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces

(SDF), a Kurdish-led group of militias. In

the past year the SDF, with the help of

American air power, has liberated most of

the country’s eastern provinces from IS.

The Americans and the SDFoperate in an

America’s Syria policy

Donald’s dilemma

The American president and his advisers agree that chemical-weapons use should

be punished, but not about much else

Middle East and Africa

Also in this section

42 Israel takes on Iran in Syria

42 Gulf money helps and hurts Somalia

43 South Africa’s opposition regroups

44 A little hope for Sierra Leone

44 The problem with maize in Africa

SYRIA

IRAQ

Damascus

Jerusalem

Douma

Euphr

ate

s

TURKEY

JORDAN

ISRAEL

LEBANON

Med. Sea

Eastern Ghouta

Russian

air base

Aleppo

Beirut

Raqqa

T-4 air base

Palmyra

Government

Islamic

State

Kurds

Rebels

Turkish troops/rebels

Hizbullah

dominated

100 km

Areas of control

April 9th 2018

Sources: IHS Conflict

Monitor; Institute for

the Study of War