The Economist Asia Edition - April 14, 2018

42 Middle East and Africa The EconomistApril 14th 2018

1

2 turn to territory held by the regime; and Mr

Assad has shown little interest in giving up

his chemical weapons, with Russia and

China blockingUNefforts to compel him.

Yet that does not mean the American

mission in the east should be aborted, as

Mr Trump would probably like. For a start,

there would be a serious risk ofISre-

emerging before local forces could deal

with it unaided. Even ifISdid not make a

comeback, with the Americans gone, re-

gime forces and Iranian-backed militias

would soon be pushing across the Euphra-

tes in an attempt to retake territory.

An emboldened Iran (and Russia)

would undoubtedly see an American

withdrawal from Syria as the likely pre-

lude to pulling out of Iraq and perhaps the

wider Middle East. Turkey would step up

its assault onAmerica’s Syrian Kurdish al-

lies in the north. The relative safety that

American forces have brought to some Syr-

ians would evaporate. Finally, what little

leverage America has recently bought in

the process to determine Syria’s future

would have been lost.

America’s allies in the region, particu-

larly Israel and Saudi Arabia, want it not

only to stay but to beef up its presence. Mr

Tillerson’s successor as secretary of state,

Mike Pompeo, and Mr Trump’s new na-

tional-security adviser, John Bolton, want

to confront Iran, not concede the field to it.

James Mattis, the defence secretary, is com-

mitted to finishing the job his troops start-

ed in Syria. They could yet convince Mr

Trump. But the president’s tendency is to

heed what his gut tells him his political

base wants. If that is withdrawing quickly,

as he promised on the campaign trail, then

that is what is most likely to happen. 7

I

N THE early hours of April 9th Israeli

fighter jets crossed into Lebanese air-

space and fired a salvo of cruise missiles

eastward. Their target was the T-4 military

airbase in central Syria (see map on previ-

ous page), not far from the ancient city of

Palmyra. More specifically, the missiles

were aimed at a hangar in a secluded com-

pound on the west side of the airfield. The

building was used by Iran’s expeditionary

Quds Force, the foreign wing of its Islamic

Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Rus-

sia and Syria both claimed that they de-

tected the Israeli aircraft and the incoming

missiles, and that at least some of them

were intercepted. But enough of them got

through to cause significant damage and

kill at least seven Iranian officers, including

a colonel. The Israeli government has not

publicly acknowledged that it was behind

the attack.

Since the start of the Syrian war in 2011,

Israel has carried out atleast 100 cross-bor-

der strikes.Most were aimedat weapons

convoys and depots belonging to Hizbul-

lah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia

movement. The latest strike is only the

third in which Iranian personnel were di-

rectly targeted. The last time Israel hit them

was two months earlier, at the same base,

after an Iranian drone breached Israel’s air-

space. But this strike appeared to be pre-

emptive, not reactive.

For decades Israel has fought a shadow

war with Iran, which funds Lebanese and

Palestinian proxies that attack the Jewish

state. In recent months, though, the war

has escalated: Israel and Iran have come

into direct confrontation on Syrian soil,

where the IRGCis determined to establish

permanent bases. To do so, it must find a

way to limit Israel’s freedom to carry out

air strikes there. Its officers at T-4 were

working to build up an air-defence capa-

bility meant to threaten Israeli aircraft—

which is why they were targeted.

Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime

minister (pictured right), has placed great

stock in his personal relationship with Rus-

sia’s president, Vladimir Putin (left). They

meet and talk frequently. But Israel’s securi-

ty chiefs are coming to realise that the

Kremlin will not exert itself to limit Iran’s

role in Syria. Mr Putin has committed him-

self to the survival ofBashar al-Assad’s re-

gime. His air force provides it with over-

whelming firepower, though for domestic

political reasons he is reluctant to put Rus-

sian boots on the ground.

Instead the Assad regime has turned to

Shia militias, often made up of Afghans

drafted and organised by Iran, as cannon

fodder. Some of the toughest battles in Syr-

ia were fought by Hizbullah. “Putin re-

spects Netanyahu and Israel’s military

power, and would prefer to be co-ordi-

nated with Israel,” says an Israeli spook.

“But to safeguard his interests in Syria, he

needs Iran more right now.”

Russia and Israel have a military “de-

confliction” process that, over the last two

and a half years, has kept the countries’ air-

craft from clashing over Syria. Russia has

turned a blind eye to Israel’s frequent air

strikes. But after the latest attack, Israel’s

ambassador to Moscow was summoned

to explain it.

In the past Israel has assured Russia that

it does not seek to harm theAssad regime,

as long as its own strategic interests in Syria

are not jeopardised. That line is starting to

change. Yoav Galant, the housing minister

and a former general, has made a round of

interviews calling for Mr Assad’s removal.

While this is not yet official Israeli policy,

Mr Galant is close to Mr Netanyahu. It is

hard not to interpret this as a message to

Moscow. Israel is determined to prevent

Iran from expanding its foothold in Syria,

even if it means threatening Russia’s client

in Damascus in the process. 7

Israel v Iran in Syria

Heating up

JERUSALEM

Israel is determined to stop Iran from

establishing bases in Syria

Vlad, I’m disappointed in you

T

HE ancient port town of Berbera in So-

maliland, a breakaway state in north-

ern Somalia, is generally a sleepy place.

The heat, which can reach 50 degrees Cel-

sius in the summer, stifles even the dogs.

Yet visitorswill find itbuzzing atthe mo-

ment. Near the edge of town, sand and rub-

ble fill the space where, until recently, there

were 19th-century Ottoman traders’

houses. New buildings are springing up. A

little out to sea, as half a dozen ships idle in

the sun, a barge from Dubai hauls a colos-

sal crane towards the shore.

All of this activity relates to a new port

being built byDPWorld, a company most-

ly owned by the government of Dubai,

part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). At

the moment, Berbera’s port is small—used

mostly for the export of livestock to the Per-

sian Gulf, and the import of goods to Har-

geisa, the capital of Somaliland. However,

over the next decade or so, thanks to DP

World, it could turn into one of east Afri-

ca’s biggest. The port and another Emirati

project, to build a military base in Berbera,

are powerful reminders of how money

Gulf money in Somalia

A storm over a

port

BERBERA

An Emirati project in Somaliland

infuriates Somalia