The EconomistApril 14th 2018 Middle East and Africa 432 from the Gulf is changing the Horn of Afri-
ca. It also risks exacerbating the struggle be-
tween Somalia’s weak, but internationally
recognised federal government in Mogadi-
shu and its restive, secessionist regions.
The Berbera port, which will cost some
$450m, is by far the biggest investment in
Somaliland since the province declared in-
dependence from Somalia in 1991 (in prac-
tical, but not legal, terms it is a separate
country). It has taken on a new significance
since February, when DP Wo rl d wa s
thrown out of neighbouring Djibouti,
where it had operated the main port since
- Djibouti currently handles over 90%
of Ethiopia’s sea trade, and also hosts
French, American and Chinese naval
bases. Somaliland officials probably hope
to steal some of that traffic. In March Ethio-
pia announced it had bought a 19% stake in
the Berbera port.
The project annoys politicians in Moga-
dishu, who fear losingmore of their al-
ready meagre authority. So they have
kicked back at theUAE. Last month parlia-
ment passed a law banningDPWo rl d fro m
all of Somalia (something it cannot en-
force). On April 8th the authorities in Mog-
adishu temporarily seized an Emirati
plane carrying some $9.6m in cash, appar-
ently intended for soldiers in Puntland, an-
other autonomous state, being trained by
theUAE. On April 11th the defence minister
announced that Somalia would end a sim-
ilar programme in which theUAEpaid and
trained soldiers in the national army, who
will henceforth be paid by the (penniless)
federal government.
Officials in Somaliland are unruffled.
The federal government “cannot control
even ten square kilometres of Mogadishu”,
says Liban Yusuf Osman, Somaliland’s
deputy foreign minister, dismissing its ob-
jection to the port deal. But the dispute
drives a big wedge between the two gov-
ernments, says Rashid Abdi of Internation-
al Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO. It
does not help that many politicians in
Mogadishu are thought to have taken mon-
ey from Qatar, the UAE’s rival, or that Tur-
key, another rival, is one of Somalia’s big-
gest foreign investors.
Indeed, the government in Mogadishu
is a mess, thanks in part to constant
manoeuvring by foreign-funded politi-
cians. On April 9th the speaker of parlia-
ment, Mohamed Osman Jawari, stood
down, having apparently lost a power
struggle with the prime minister, Hassan
Ali Khayre, and the president, Mohamed
Abdullahi Mohamed, known by his nick-
name “Farmaajo”.
A few days before, African Union sol-
diers had to step in after Mr Jawari’s body-
guards stormed the parliament and ran up
against troops loyal to the prime minister.
Both sidesostensibly opposethe port in
Berbera, but Mr Jawari saw an opportunity
to seize more power for parliament by
holding a (symbolic) vote on the deal,
without consulting Mr Mohamed.
The bickering does not help the cause
of a unified Somalia. The government in
Mogadishu has little tooffer the country’s
regions. That allows countries like theUAE
to swoop in and fill the gaps. Al-Shabab, a
terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, contin-
ues to mount successful attacks. On April
1st dozens of Ugandan soldiers were killed
by the jihadists in the most deadly raid in
over a year. The greater the chaos in the ar-
eas ostensibly controlled by federal gov-
ernment, the smaller the incentive for re-
gions such as Somaliland to care what its
politicians think. 7Abu DhabiArabian SeaThe
GulfRed
SeaINDIAN OCEANBerberaDubai
UAESAUDI ARABIAETHIOPIADJIBOUTI YEMENKUWAITERITREASUDANOMANQATARIRANSOMALIASomalilandPuntlandMogadishuSocotra
(to Yemen)500 kmNHargeisaC
LOUDS of confetti and pyrotechnics
marked Mmusi Maimane’s re-election
as leader of South Africa’s main opposi-
tion party on April 8th. The conference of
the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA) was
well-organised, unlike those of the ruling
African National Congress (ANC). Journal-
ists were welcomed into the main hall, not
held at a distance by metal fences and thug-
gish guards. But the DA’s dreams of trounc-
ing the ANCin next year’s general election
have faded since Jacob Zuma was forced to
resign as president in February.
Mr Zuma’s presidency was a disaster
for South Africa. He undermined institu-
tions and wrought havoc on the economy.
On April 6th he appeared in a Durban
court to face corruption charges. But his
scandal-ridden tenure was a gift to the op-
position. Support for the ANC, which Mr
Zuma led, fell from 62% in the general elec-
tion of 2014 to 54% in local polls two years
later. The DA, meanwhile, used the help of
smaller parties to push the ANCout of
power in Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth and
Pretoria, the capital, in 2016.They won partly because manyANC
supporters, repelled by Mr Zuma, stayed at
home. But these voters may not have aban-
doned their beloved liberation party.
Many will turn out again now that the ge-
nial Cyril Ramaphosa has succeeded Mr
Zuma asANCboss and South Africa’s pres-
ident. Since taking office in February, Mr
Ramaphosa has enjoyed broad support for
his reform plans and strong stance against
corruption. Without Mr Zuma to de-
nounce, the opposition is struggling to re-
main relevant.
The Zuma years highlighted the impor-
tance of an energetic opposition. Mr Zuma
is facing corruption charges only because
the DAfiled so many court actions to make
it happen. The Economic Freedom Fighters
(EFF), a far-left splinter from the ANC,
brought the case that forced Mr Zuma to
pay back public funds spent on gussying
up his private estate.
Mr Maimane argues that with Mr Zuma
gone, there can be a battle of ideas be-
tween the parties. Hisplatform focuses on
jobs, a no-brainer in a country with 36%
unemployment. But the DAhas been dis-
tracted by a nasty internal dispute over the
mayor of Cape Town, Patricia de Lille, who
has been accused of misconduct by the
party leadership. It has tried to oust her.
Party bosses have adjusted theirexpec-
tations for next year’s polls. Success, they
say, would mean taking control of Gauteng
province, the country’s economic hub. To
go further the DAmust win over more of
the black majority. The party is planning a
door-to-door campaign to counter percep-
tions that it is only for white people. It is
also identifying and training young, racial-
ly diverse leaders—a marked contrast to the
ageingANC.
The EFF, led by Julius Malema, a former
leader of the ANC’s youth wing, is also
struggling. Desperate for attention, it is
growing ever more radical. Its supporters
have ransacked H&Mclothing shops over
an allegedly racist advert. Mr Malema has
urged black South Africans to seize land.
After the DArefused to back an EFFmotion
calling for the expropriation of land with-
out compensation, Mr Malema an-
nounced that his party would vote out the
DAmayor of Port Elizabeth, who is white.
“Cutting the throat of whiteness,” is how
he described the effort, which failed. Sup-
port for the EFF remains low.
The ANC, meanwhile, is still divided
over Mr Zuma’s ouster. The ex-president
has retreated to KwaZulu-Natal, his home
province, where he is rallying supporters
and grumbling about his comrades’ betray-
al. That is making it harder for Mr Rama-
phosa to reinvigorate the party. The DA’s
federal chairman, James Selfe, says that
“Ramaphoria” will fade as the new presi-
dent finds it difficult to deliver on his prom-
ises. But the main threat to the ANCmay
come from within its own ranks. 7South Africa’s oppositionTime to regroup
PRETORIA
The opposition flourished under Jacob
Zuma. Now they need new targets