30 United States The EconomistJune 9th 2018
2 it has no legal force, is an opinion written
in 1974 in which a justice department law-
yer argued that the president did not have
the power to self-pardon. Nixon resigned
three days later.
Yet this was ultimately because Con-
gress, belatedly but resoundingly, had
turned on him. And that looks far less like-
ly these days—even in the event that Mr
Trump defied a subpoena from Mr Mueller
or absolved himself of a crime. Freed by
his decision not to seek re-election, Paul
Ryan, the Speaker of the House of Repre-
sentatives, did muster the courage to say he
was not for presidential self-pardoning.
His counterpart in the Senate, Mitch
McConnell, kept silent. Meanwhile he re-
fuses to allow a voteon draftlegislationin-
tended to protect the Mueller investigation
from the attack Mr Trump has threatened.
If Congress will not fulfil its duty to check
monarchical ambitions, America can ex-
pect more errant presidents.
How far Mr Trump may be willing to
test Congress’s acquiescence is one of the
most important questions of his presiden-
cy. It is possible to be optimistic. The presi-dent has a careerlong habit of making blus-
tery threats that he does not follow
through on, often in an effort to secure only
modest advantages (as Kim Jong Un may
be about to discover in Singapore). Mr
Trump’s former lawyers, having claimed
vast powers for the president in a bid to
spare him an interview with Mr Mueller,
seem to have employed the same tactic. Le-
gal scholars noted that the shabby quality
of their legal argument also had a distinctly
Trumpy feel to it. The lawyers argued that
Mr Trump’s meddling with theFBIdid not
break a particular statute on obstruction.
Yet they failed to mention a far more perti-
nent statute in Article I of the constitution.
A more pessimistic view is that, even if
Mr Mueller were to call Mr Trump’s bluff,
the stakes are too high for the president to
fold as he usually would. The presidency is
not a deal he can easily walk away from.
That this might even be a consideration
presupposes, of course, that Mr Mueller
has him on the hook for a serious offence.
He may not. Though, it must be said, that is
not the impression Mr Trump and his law-
yers are giving. 7M
IKE LEVIN has the perfect hair, wash-
and-wear grin and firm yet unthreat-
ening handshake of aseasoned politician.
What he lacked, at least by the standards of
California’s wealthy 49th district, was
money. Paul Kerr, a property investor and
one of Mr Levin’s 16 rivals in the primary
on June 6th, spent more than $4m of his
own money. Another rival, Sara Jacobs,
spent more than $1.5m of hers. But one day
before the vote, Mr Levin was unfazed.
“There is no substitute for a grassroots
campaign,” he says in his nondescript of-
fice in a nondescript office park in San Cle-
mente as he rattles off the number of
phone calls made and homes visited.
Mr Levin finished in second place,
slightly ahead of Ms Jacobs, and well be-
hind Diane Harkey, a Republican former
state representative. But in California’s jun-
gle primary—in whichall candidates, re-
gardless of party, appear on a single ballot,
with the top two advancing to the election
proper—second place is a victory. Total
Democratic votes exceeded Republican;
assuming he can consolidate his rivals’
supporters, Mr Levin may well become the
first Democrat in 15 years to represent the
49th. Across California and America,
Democrats can breathe a little easier thisweek: they appear to have avoided a catas-
trophe born of theirown enthusiasm and
California’s bizarre system.
Introduced in 2010, jungle primaries
were intended to encourage moderation.
The thinking was that, by avoiding parti-
san primaries, candidates would havemore incentive to play to the centre rather
than the fringes. However well-intended, it
was no match for America’s toxic national
polarisation. Rather than moderating, par-
ties just gamed the system.
Seven of the 23 districts held by Repub-
licans but won in 2016 by Hillary Clinton
are in California. In two of them, Republi-
can incumbents attracted viable Republi-
can challengers, which probably would
not have happened with a traditional
primary. In most of them, Democratic chal-
lengers outnumbered Republicans.
A small Republican field facing a large
one composed of first-time, relatively
evenly matched Democrats threatened
“lockouts”, in which the top two finishers
by vote-share both come from the party
that receives fewer total votes. To flip the
House in November, Democrats need to
pick up 24 seats; lockouts would have
made their road back to a majority signifi-
cantly rockier.
Although the official results may not be
known for weeks (California accepts
mail-in ballots postmarked on election
day), all seven Republican-held Clinton
districts look likely to feature two-party
general match-ups. Democrats are unlikely
to win a clean sweep, but our model sug-
gests they will take Mr Levin’s 49th, and
party workers like their chances in the
nearby 39th and 48th. Orange and San Die-
go Counties have grown more diverse, and
their relatively wealthy, well-educated Re-
publicans are not President Donald
Trump’s core constituency. Mr Trump’s
elimination of the state-and-local tax de-
duction is an albatross for Republicans in
high-tax California.
Republicans found themselves locked
out of a California Senate race for the sec-
ond straight cycle. Dianne Feinstein, the 84-
year-old incumbent, will face Kevin de
Leon, a progressive state senator, in No-
vember. But Republicans avoided a lock-
out in the governor’s race. John Cox fin-
ished second to Gavin Newsom, the
lieutenant-governor. Mr Cox has little
chance in November, but his presence
gives Republicans an incentive to go to the
polls and vote for downballot candidates.
Overall, Democrats emerged from
America’s biggest primary night in good
shape. In New Jersey they drew more vot-
ers and chose electable candidates in the
three districts they most want to flip. Bob
Menendez, the scandal-ridden incumbent
senator, saw off a primary challenge by a
thin margin. In New Mexico’s safely
Democratic first congressional district,
Deb Haaland saw off five challengers; in
November she will probably become the
first Native American woman elected to
Congress. And in Missouri Democrats
flipped their 42nd state legislative seat
since Mr Trump took office. His approval
ratings may have gone up a bit, but he is
still driving Democrats to the polls. 7Elections in CaliforniaAlmost blue it
SANCLEMENTE
Democrats avoid disaster in California’s consequential, dysfunctional primariesWelcome to the jungle