The EconomistJune 9th 2018 Middle East and Africa 392 Act—did not punish bribery in third coun-
tries. Mr Calil was detained by officials in
Paris in 2002 as they investigated
embezzlement and backhanders paid to
Abacha. He was not charged, but later con-
ceded that his actions might be considered
illegal under new laws.
These days Western fixers must com-
pete with rivals from China and other
countries with less fussy rules. Last year
America imposed sanctions on Dan Ger-
tler, an Israeli with a business empire in the
Democratic Republic of Congo. The Amer-
ican Treasury described Mr Gertler’s for-
tune as the result of “opaque and corrupt
mining and oil deals”. He is close to Joseph
Kabila, the country’s president.
Mr Calil stood out in one respect:
whereas others merely cultivated the
powerful, he once sought to overthrow a
president who displeased him. He was a
leading backer of the “Wonga Coup”, a far-
cical plot by British and other mercenaries
to topple the government of Equatorial
Guinea in 2004. The hired guns identified
Mr Calil as their “Cardinal”—though they
also dubbed him “Smelly”. They said he re-
cruited their Old Etonian frontman, Simon
Mann, and helped finance the scheme.
Phone records and other evidence corrob-
orated this account. Mr Calil introduced
the plotters to Severo Moto, an exiled
priest who was being flown towards Equa-
torial Guinea on the night the plot was
foiled—and would have become president
had it succeeded.
“His big mistake was getting involved in
a big and dangerous game, the worst-con-
ducted coup plot in years,” says Nigel Mor-
gan, an ex-spy who helped to thwart the
Wonga Coup and who interviewed Mr Ca-
lil afterwards. According to Mr Morgan, Mr
Calil offered to betray the other plotters,
promising information about the scheme
to South Africa in an effort to stave off pros-
ecution. Do fixers like Mr Calil do anything
useful for Africa? “They’re vultures, pure
and simple,” says Mr Morgan. 7
Mr Calil, dapper and brazenT
O LAND a job in Jordan’s public sector
is to land a job for life—unless you are
the prime minister. Starting on May 30th
thousands of Jordanians came out to prot-
est against subsidy cuts and new taxes
planned by the government of Hani Mulki.
On June 1st King Abdullah tried to appease
them by cancelling increases to fuel and
electricity prices. When that failed he
sacked Mr Mulki, thesixth prime minister
to lose his job since 2011. But on June 4th
protesters were back in the streets.
Few Jordanians will miss Mr Mulki, a
maladroit politician. But hewas arguably
Jordan’s most reform-minded prime min-
ister. Before he took office in 2016 the king-
dom was careering towards insolvency,
with a debt-to-GDPratio that had soared
from 62% in 2011 to 93% four years later. Mr
Mulki halted the slide by raising revenue
and reducing energysubsidies. The debt
ratio has stabilised at 95%. The government
also accepted a $723m loan from theIMF
with promises of further reforms.
Those changes are long overdue. Jordan
acts like an oil-rich Gulf state, with gener-
ous subsidies and apublic sector that em-
ploys one in three workers. But it has no
natural resources. The economy grew by a
paltry 2% last year. Wars in Syria and Iraq,
and a recession in Saudi Arabia, have hurt
Jordanian exporters. Regional turmoil has
also scared off tourists.
Jordan can no longer count on Gulf lar-
gesse, like a $5bn grant offered in the first
days of the Arab Spring in 2011. “Saudi Ara-
bia kept the Jordanian economy afloat,”
says a Western diplomat. But the Saudis
are upset with Jordan’s reluctance to send
troops to Yemen and its refusal to join an
embargo of Qatar. They have not offered a
rial since 2016. Though America will give
Jordan $6.4bn over the next five years, a
28% increase over the last aid package, this
will not fill the gap.
TheIMFwants Jordan to lower its debt-
to-GDPratio to 77% by 2022. Officials hope
to achieve that through growth. But since
2010 the growth rate has been stuck at 3%
or less, and theIMFexpects it to stay there
until 2022.
Instead, Jordan will need to balance its
budget. But this will hurt an already strug-
gling population. One in five Jordanians
lives below the official poverty line of 70
dinars ($99) per month. That is hard to sur-
vive on anywhere in Jordan, especially in
Amman, the expensive capital. One of the
protest slogans isma’nash,or“wehavenothing”. It is only a slight exaggeration.
The poorest Jordanians get help from
the National Aid Fund, a state-run body
that makes payments to 92,500 families. A
recent study found that most beneficiaries
get less than 50 dinars each month. The lat-
est budget also introduced a new $250m
cash-transfer scheme. It will coverpublic-
sector employees who earn less than
18,000 dinars per year, and other Jordani-
ans who meet a lower income threshold.
The average recipient will get around 30 di-
nars each month. A huge portion of Jor-
dan’s welfare spending goes on inefficient
subsidies, butcutting them provokes fury.
Fuel prices have increased five times this
year; electricity rates are up by 55%. Bread
prices nearly doubled in January.
A proposed income tax worries Jor-
dan’s middle class. For all the controversy
it has caused, the draft law being discussed
in parliament is quite cautious. It would
lower the minimum taxable income to
8,000 dinars per year for individuals and
16,000 for families (from 12,000 and
24,000). Those are still generous exemp-
tions in a country with an average salary
of around 5,400 dinars.MPs wager that the
bill would expand the tax base to 10% of
the population, up from 3%, and raise a
modest 300m dinars a year. But trade un-
ions say it would harm members. Many
took part in a general strike on June 6th.
King Abdullah has told the new govern-
ment to review the entire tax system. But
the new prime minister, Omar al-Razzaz, a
former World Bankeconomist, will have
little room for manoeuvre. Jordan cannot
afford to step back from fiscal reforms.
More unrest seems likely. The Islamic Ac-
tion Front, the local wing of the Muslim
Brotherhood, wants early elections. A few
protesters have even chanted slogans
against the monarchy. For decades Jordani-
an leaders could count on wealthy allies to
pay for short-sighted economic policies.
The bill is coming due. 7Austerity and fury in JordanUneasy lies the
head
CAIRO
King Abdullah triesto calmhis subjectsHands up for handouts