42 Europe The EconomistJune 9th 2018
12 and scandals involving his party.
On May 24th a court found that the PP
had run an illegal financing scheme, and
that Mr Rajoy’s evidence denying this
lacked credibility. Since he had often high-
lighted, in the Catalan context, that Spain’s
judiciary is independent and the rule of
law paramount, that made his position un-
tenable, as Mr Sánchez quickly grasped. Mr
Rajoy, a great survivor whose stolid ap-
pearance hidessharp political instincts,
had been outwitted at last. This week, in a
tearful farewell, he resigned as the PP’s
leader, a post he has held for the past 15
years.
Mr Sánchez is nothing if not daring. Just
19 months ago his political career seemed
over, after he was deposed as leader of the
Socialist party by its regional barons. They
had turned against him following two elec-
tion defeats, and because he was prolong-
ing a parliamentary deadlock by refusing
to allow the formation of Mr Rajoy’s mi-
nority government. His response was to
get into his ancient Peugeot and travel
round the country, rallying the party faith-
ful. In May 2017 he got his revenge by unex-
pectedly winning back his old job in a
party primary election.
His position is not without risks. The PP
still controls the Senate; itthinks it has
been unfairly bundled out of office with-
out an election and promises the incoming
government a rough ride. Mr Sánchez said
he would try to get a more generous bud-
get passed for next year, but that depends
on maintaining his heterogenous base of
support. Nevertheless, it is hard to unseat a
Spanish prime minister, since the constitu-
tion requires a parliamentary majority for
an alternative. Mr Rajoy was the first to suf-
fer this fate in 40 years of restored democ-
racy. If necessary, a government can roll
over a budget for a second year.
The biggest challenge remains Catalo-
nia. Mr Sánchez supported Mr Rajoy’s im-
position of direct rule after Mr Puigde-
mont’s unilateral declaration of
independence. This week that was lifted as
the separatists formed a new government.
The prime minister said he wants dia-
logue, as did Quim Torra, his Catalan coun-
terpart. Mr Sánchez can try to lower the
tension, for example by appointing a less
militant attorney-general. But creating
common ground will take time.
The risk for Mr Sánchez is that his gov-
ernment is seen as a last gasp of the old po-
litical duopoly, discredited during the eco-
nomic crisis as well as by corruption
(which has spattered the Socialists, too).
The unspoken reason for the success of the
censure was that Ciudadanos, riding high
in the polls, is the only party wanting an
immediate general election; the rest want
to avoid one. The Socialists are becalmed
at around 20%. Mr Sánchez hopes he will
be able to lift that number before going to
the country. It is his biggest battle yet. 7S
OMETIMES silence speaks louder than
words. Italy’s interior minister, Matteo
Salvini, did not utter a word of condemna-
tion of the murder of Soumaila Sacko, a 29-
year-old Malian trade unionist, on June
2nd. Mr Sacko was campaigning to im-
prove the miserable conditions of thou-
sands of African day-labourers who pick
fruit and vegetables in Calabria, the “toe”
of Italy. Some, like Mr Sacko, are legal resi-
dents. Others are not. Mr Sacko was help-
ing two other immigrants find metal sheets
to use as roofs for their shacks when a man
opened fire from a car. It was left to the
prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, to express
his condolences three days later in a
speech asking the Senate for a vote of con-
fidence in Italy’s new, populist government
(he duly obtained the backing of the upper
house and, on June 6th, that of the lower
house, the Chamber of Deputies).
Mr Conte, a law professor, belongs nei-
ther to the Northern League, which Mr Sal-
vini leads, nor to the Five Star Movement
(M 5 S), the senior partner in the coalition.
He was originally proposed byM 5 S, and
his somewhat more sensitive approach re-
flected differences between the two par-
ties over immigration that could yet under-
mine their collaboration.
No sooner had Mr Salvini been sworn
in than he was proclaiming hiseagernessto kick out the 500,000-600,000 immi-
grants who are reckoned to be living with-
out authorisation in Italy. “The good times
for illegals are over,” he declared. “Get
ready to pack your bags.” The NGOswho
save migrants from drowning in the Medi-
terranean and land them in Italian ports
(so far with the full permission of the Ital-
ian authorities) he branded as“substitute
people-smugglers”. And he announced
that immigrants who are refused humani-
tarian protection would henceforth be
shut into closed encampments.
That sort of talkhas helped to push the
League’s poll ratings up to 26% from less
than 18% at the general election held on
March 4th. But it can be counter-produc-
tive. On the day that at least 60 migrants,
most of them Tunisians, drowned trying to
reach the Italian island of Lampedusa, Mr
Salvini claimed Tunisia “often and willing-
ly exports convicts”. The government in
Tunis summoned the Italian ambassador
to convey its “profound astonishment”.
It is true that in the year to June 6th, Tu-
nisians made up the largest national con-
tingent among migrants reaching Italy, ac-
counting for 21% of the total. Two factors,
however, explain that. A controversial deal
made by the previous government in
Rome with the UN-recognised administra-
tion in Libya, and allegedly with some of
the country’s powerful militias, has drasti-
cally reduced the flow of arrivals via Libya.
The overall number of migrants reaching
Italy this year has fallen to 13,768 from
61,201 in the same period last year. Mean-
while, the number ofTunisians ready to
risk their lives to seek work abroad because
of the economic crisis in their country has
risen sharply. But Mr Salvini appears to
have believed a rumour that the increase
was due to an amnesty (in reality, an annu-
al pardon that led to the release of only
around 400 prisoners).
One reason that Italy cannot expel its il-
legal immigrants is that most of their coun-
triesof origin refuse to have them back. Mr
Salvini said that he intends to negotiate
more repatriation agreements. Italy has
more than 20 of these, but Mr Salvini’s ill-
judged words have jeopardised one of the
few of them that works. So far in 2018, Tuni-
sia has taken back 1,224 of its citizens. Mr
Salvini’s blunder signalled a looming
doubt: whether poor countries of origin
will be any readier to co-operate with the
leader of a xenophobic, hard-right party
than they have been with previous, mod-
erate Italian governments.
In his speeches to parliament, Mr Conte
vowed to lobby for newEU ruleson immi-
gration, including the “compulsory and
automatic” distribution of migrants from
Italy to partner states. But the latest attempt
to hatch a deal, at talks in Luxembourg, was
failing as he spoke. Mr Salvini has mooted
an alliance with Hungary. Yet it is the gov-
ernment of Viktor Orban and others inItalyBashing migrants
ROME
The new government loses no time
making its priorities clear