feature | aSeaN
They say you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. ASIAN Geographic asked
five experts to imagine a future where the effects of the decades-old regional bloc
simply vanished from history, to shed light on what losing it could mean for usWhat If ASEAN Ceased to Exist?
ALTERNATIVE EXISTENCE
It seems whimsical to envision an alternative
future without ASEAN. But in fact, the
current global climate – where the ASEAN
countries face uncertainties that challenge
their futures – tempts countries to doubt
the benefits of regional cooperation and
magnify its constraints. Transactional “me
first” attitudes and shifting power balances
have magnified petty differences between
countries. Narratives of nationalism are on the
rise, together with critical views of whether
governments can ensure the security and
development of their population. Without
the weight of regional commitment, natural
differences would heighten suspicions and
inhibit travel and trade.
Economically speaking, countries with
high numbers of unemployed youth, poverty,
natural disasters, or conflicts have the most
to lose without ASEAN. Smaller economies
would be increasingly dependent on larger“It is tempting to say,
‘There’ll be no difference’,
but ASEAN’s influence runs
deeper than meets the eye”
powers outside the region for their survival,
affecting the region’s niche as an entrepôt and
thoroughfare. And with tariffs and barriers
to trade and investment back in place, only
countries with more open systems can
effectively negotiate a space in the global
trade environment.
Life in Southeast Asia would also see large
differences in how people interact across
borders. The region – both before and after
colonisation – has had to contend with
rivalries and conflict between nations, but
ASEAN’s efforts at dialogue prevent all-out
war between member states when tensions
flare, as they do from time to time. Without
a platform to iron out differences, mistrust
and narrow self-interests would lead to a
fragmented region, vulnerable to external
threats. Perhaps in the end, countries might
still find themselves thinking along the same
lines: to form a regional grouping to create
a zone of stability, within which they work
together to prosper.Moe Thuzar
Head of Human Development,
ASEAN Secretariat, 2004–2007,
Lead Researcher (Socio-Cultural Affairs),
ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute- Electronics
- Oil and fuel
- Machinery
- Plastics
- Optical equipment
trAde in ASeAn
TOP 5 TRADE
INDUSTRIES
ASEAN is its own
largest trading partner
TOTAL
USD2.27 trillion
Internal (24%)
USD544 billion
External (76%)
USD1.73 trillion
24 %76 %DATA SOURCE: ASEAN STATSPHOTO © SHUTTERSTOCK