FORBES ASIASIDELINES
F
ive months ago, in a round
of Asian talks, I said the U.S.
and China were in for a long,
bumpy stretch but not a full trade
war. Half right, I guess.
Clearly, relations have grown
stif on multiple fronts. First of, the
layers of tarifs are sticking rather
than being feints for negotiating
advantage. his will gum up global
commerce even without accompanying acrimony, and be a net loss for the U.S. and
China, and economies in between.
But trade parity is far from the only contested ground now. A variety of military,
development and diplomatic rubs have developed, with China’s repressive domestic
policies always adding background noise to the clamorous “dialogue.” President Trump
has even taken to the notion that Chinese propaganda is iguring in the election shel-
lacking he is due in weeks. For its part, China is replying brusquely down to the level of
denying a naval port of call to Hong Kong.
It’s important to realize, however, that Trump’s typical bluster can mask longer-term
shits in bilateral afairs. And here the picture is actually darker still. Unlike the case
with many of the other ights the president has picked, the bout with China—or more
accurately, with the Communist Party of China—is one that broad swaths of American
society are ready for.
here’s a broad U.S. consensus that the PRC government is indisposed to a liberal
order (forget democratic) that underlies a basic rule of law for a civil, transactional
world society. Yes, China has signed treaties (even some the U.S. has snifed at), but it
has not won over belief in its good intentions. hat this is a both a Democrat as well as
Republican position will be underscored if power in Washington again is divided ater
November.
For the rest of Asia, there’s apprehension and perhaps some opportunity to play
sides. No one can win if actual weapons are deployed, such as in the South China Sea
or the Taiwan Strait. In a cold war, however, alliances can help. China clumsily goes
about seeking them, while the U.S. squandered a sure thing by abandoning the Trans-
Paciic Partnership.
If I were asked again, I’d say neither China nor the U.S. can aford a big mistake
from here—but that doesn’t necessarily preclude one.Cold Reality
Tim Ferguson
Editor, forbes as
a
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