The Economist - USA (2022-05-21)

28 United States TheEconomistMay21st 2022

S

ambankman-frieddrivesa Toyota

Corolla and sleeps on a beanbag in a

flat he shares with ten roommates. It

might come as a surprise that the 30­

year­old is a crypto­entrepreneur whose

exchange, ftx, was valued at $32bn in

January. Recently he has taken an in­

terest in politics. 

On May 17th nine Democrats vied to

contest a seat in Oregon’s sixth, a new

congressional district born from the

2020 census. And a $10.5m donation

from Mr Bankman­Fried to one of them,

Carrick Flynn, made it the costliest

House primary in this cycle to date. 

Mr Flynn and his backer both live by

the principles of “effective altruism”,

which urges people to maximise the

amount of good they can do. Effective

altruists argue that money should be

spent where it goes furthest: forgo that

donation to the local soup kitchen when

the same amount could save hundreds of

children in Bangladeshi slums. To Mr

Bankman­Fried, adhering to the ideology

means earning a lot to give to effective

causes—he has pledged to donate 99% of

his lifetime earnings. To Mr Flynn, a

researcher with no previous political

ambitions who became infuriated with

Congress’s poor response to covid­19, it

meansrunningforofficetobolsterplan­

ningfordisasters.

Effectivealtruistshavelongheralded

themeasurablebenefitsofdeworming

medicationandmosquitonets.Politics,

however,ismoreofa gamble,withhazier

payoffsanda lowerprobabilityofsuc­

cess.TheCentreforEffectiveAltruism,

whichchampions“empathywithevi­

dence”,hasadvisedtheWorldBank,the

WorldHealthOrganisationandtheBrit­

ishgovernment.ButinOregonthisweek

MrFlynnfailedtowintheDemocratic

nomination:Congressisnotaboutto

experienceaninjectionofaltruism.

Oregon’ssixthdistrict

Ineffective altruism

America’s most expensive House raceandtheideologythatmadeitso

Political gamble

United States, top five House primary districts

By total spending , May 16th 2022, $m

Source:OpenSecrets

20151050

Texas 28

California 20

California 11

Georgia 1

Oregon 6

shipped four full charter planesofthem.)

Can  the  boom  continue?  Ithas been

fantastic  for  air  freighters:  rateshadtre­

bled by the start of the year, saysMrJones

Shah.  Profits  at  big  firms,  such as Ger­

many’s Lufthansa Cargo, have soared,even

as the airline industry in generalstruggles.

Orders for new cargo jets are floodinginto

Airbus and Boeing. But costs arealsogoing

up.  The  price  of  fuel  has  soared.Ground

staff  are  in  short  supply.  Somefirmshave

not realised they need to raisepay,andare

flailing.  “You  cannot  run  a  labour­inten­

sive  operation  with  50%  staffturnover,”

says Mr Jones Shah.

To  beat  the  crunch,  a  lot  ofmoneyis

now being invested in technologytotryto

increase  efficiency.  Flexport’swarehouse

has clever scanners that use artificialintel­

ligence  to  try  to  spot  automaticallycrates

that have been loaded onto thewronglor­

ries. The firm also tries to use itsdatatoof­

fer  clients  more  efficient  waysto move

their  stuff  around,  balancingairandsea

freight.  In  the  short  run,  though,higher

costs  mean  higher  prices  forconsumers.

That risks bringing the boom toanabrupt

end—an O’Hare raising prospect.n

Pennsylvania

Keystone-cop

politics

L

ikea doctoratthebedside,a politician

must try to soothe voters’ worries. At an

event on the eve of the Republican Senate

primary election in Pennsylvania, Mehmet

Oz, a celebrity television doctor, took vot­

ers’  blood  pressure.  They  told  him  about

their  concerns,  from  inflation  to  schools,

and their fondness for Donald Trump. But

as they filed out, many still seemed scepti­

cal.  Dr  Oz  had  won  the  former  president’s

endorsement, but not the love of his fans. 

By May 18th, the day after the election,

Dr Oz appeared to have edged ahead of Da­

vid  McCormick.  But  with  a  margin  of  less

than  0.5  percentage  points  separating  the

two,  the  race  will  probably  head  to  a  re­

count that must be completed by June 7th.

The  saga  will  weigh  on  Republicans,

who  cannot  afford  to  lose  the  state  come

November. With an incumbent Republican

senator  retiring,  Pennsylvania  is  one  of

Democrats’  few  chances  to  flip  a  seat  and

retain  their  thin  majority  in  the  upper

chamber.  But  in  chasing  votes  and  Mr

Trump’s  coveted  endorsement,  Dr  Oz  and

Mr McCormick, a former hedge­fund exec­

utive,  adopted  nearly  identical  messages

and spent much of the campaign attacking

one another in television ads. 

They  had  a  scare  from  the  insurgent

campaign of Kathy Barnette, a charismatic

African­American  far­right  commentator.

She  rocketed  into  contention  on  the  back

of  her  strenuous  opposition  to  abortion

and  background  as  the  child  of  rape.  Mr

Trump  appeared  alarmed  to  find  his  pre­

ferred  candidate  outflanked,  and  labelled

Ms  Barnette  unelectable.  “He’s  not  Jesus,

he can be wrong,” said Ms Barnette, refer­

ring to Mr Trump, while tarring her oppo­

nents  as  part  of  the  “woke  right”.  In  the

end, after being vastly outspent, she came

third with a quarter of the vote. 

Republicans  faced  more  discomfort  in

the  governor’s  contest.  The  comfortable

victor,  a  state  senator,  Doug  Mastriano,  is

also  among  the  more  extreme  flavours  of

Republican. He joined the rally (as did Ms

Barnette) to overturn the election of Presi­

dent Joe Biden at America’s Capitol on Jan­

uary  6th  2021.  He  has  vowed  to  appoint  a

like­minded  Pennsylvania  secretary  of

state  to  administer  elections—one  who

may  resist  certifying  a  future  Democratic

presidential victory there. 

The  Republican  candidates  now  face

two  formidable  Democratic  opponents.

The state’s no­nonsense attorney­general,

Josh  Shapiro,  won  the  uncontested  nomi­

nation  for  governor.  The  Democrats’  Sen­

ate nominee, John Fetterman, the hulking,

goateed state lieutenant­governor, won by

a  landslide.  Mr  Fetterman  spent  the  cam­

paign disavowing his lefty reputation and

would appear well­positioned closer to the

centre.  But  he  suffered  a  stroke  five  days

before  the  primary,  requiring  surgery  and

raising questions about his fitness for the

rough and tumble of a campaign.

If Democrats have managed to unite be­

hind credible candidates, Republicans are

increasingly  panicked  that  they  may

squander two prime chances in Pennsylva­

nia. Even Mr Trump appears less in control

of  a  Republican  electorate  that  continues

to pay him homage. He endorsed Mr Mas­

triano with just four days to go before the

primary,  when  he  was  already  well  ahead

in  the  polls.  If  Dr  Oz  prevails,  Mr  Trump

will  no  doubt  claim  further  vindication,

however  shaky.  Nearly  every  Republican

candidate  mimicked  the  former  presi­

dent’s positions and rhetoric. But the expe­

rience suggests that, thoughthe party has

been  recast  in  Mr  Trump’simage,  taming

the voters is more elusive.n

H ERSHEY, PENNSYLVANIA

Republicans may be fumbling a key

step in their path to a Senate majority