32 The Americas TheEconomistMay21st 2022
It is Mr Gutiérrez, who was elected as
Medellín’s mayor in 2015, who is hot on Mr
Petro’s heels in the presidential race. His
rise has been swift. Before the primaries
his name was hardly known outside Me
dellín. Since then the share of people who
say they will vote for him has tripled, to
around a quarter. He is a more skillful glad
hander than Mr Fajardo, seeking and re
ceiving the backing of all of Colombia’s es
tablished parties (there are no big outfits
on the left). He has cut into Mr Fajardo’s
base by choosing a moderate as his run
ningmate. Some 42% of people in Medel
lín say they will vote for Mr Gutiérrez. Thir
teen percent plump for Mr Petro, while just
3% like Mr Fajardo.
Mr Gutiérrez was the first mayor of Me
dellín in 12 years to be elected without the
backing of Compromiso Ciudadano. His
fouryear term was defined by promises to
be tough on crime: less civic engagement,
more cracking heads. He trumpets the fact
that city police arrested 166 gang bosses
during his term. He had Escobar’s mansion
blown up in front of an audience that in
cluded the president, with backing music
provided by a symphony orchestra.
These stunts played well on social me
dia, but Medellín’s murder rate crept up as
gang members fought over the power vacu
um left by their jailed leaders. Worse for
toughoncrime Fico, his first security
minister was jailed after being accused of
having connections with the Oficina de En-
vigado, a criminal organisation that started
life collecting debts for Escobar.
Mr Gutiérrez’s other focus as mayor was
helping business. By 2020 the city was
home to 43 businesses for every 1,000 in
habitants, up by 20% from 2016. He culti
vated an everyman persona, going by his
nickname and posting videos of police
chases online. His presidential campaign
is much the same. His slogan is “Me Iden-
tiFico” (I identify with Fico).
Medellín’s former mayors have not
been solely responsible for its success.
Money has helped, too. Much of that has
come from the municipal utility, Empresas
Públicas de Medellín, which sells electrici
ty, gas, water, sewerage and telecommuni
cations services not just to Medellín but al
so across Colombia and Latin America. It
funnels about a third of its profits to the
municipality. Those profits have grown as
it has expanded to become Colombia’s fifth
largest company. In 2020 it generated
$371m for the city, more than a quarter of
the municipal budget of $1.4bn.
The city’s status as an emblem of good
governance, so useful to Mr Gutiérrez and
Mr Fajardo, has lately taken some hits.
Daniel Quintero, who became mayor in
2020, was suspended from office by the
Procuradoria, the national disciplinary of
fice for civil servants and government offi
cials, on May 10th, accused of meddling inthe presidential campaign on Mr Petro’s
behalf. Some consider the suspension it
self to be meddling. A growing proportion
of the tourists thronging the city are there
to buy sex, not ride escalators and ogle
graffiti, according to Daniel Duque, a city
councillor. Drug use in public parks has be
come increasingly conspicuous. The pro
portion of people in the city who are poor
has remained stubbornly high for years,
hovering around a quarter. Smalllocalgangsknownascombosstill
controllargeareasinandaroundthecity.
“Ifyouhavea problemhereyougotoacom-
bo, notthepolice,”saysJuliana,themaid
fromComuna1. Researchpublishedbythe
NationalBureauofEconomicResearchlast
yearshowedthatJuliana’sviewisshared
by most ofMedellín’s poorer residents,
whohavemorefaithinthecombostore
spondrapidlytotheirproblemsthanthey
dointhepoliceorthemayor’soffice.As
wellascitytaxes,manylocalspayavacuna
(vaccine)tothecombos“forsecurity”,says
Juliana.Whenatruceamongthecombos
brokedownin 2009 itledtoaspikein
homicides.They havesince patched up
theirdifferences,butthatcouldchange.
TheelectionisonMay29th.Ifnoone
wins more than 50% of the vote, there will
be a runoff between the top two candi
dates in June. If those are Mr Petro and Mr
Gutiérrez, the result could be close. Mr Fa
jardo has the stronger claim to have made
Medellín what it is. But it is Mr Gutiérrez
who has the best chance against Mr Petro.
Mr Fajardo’s competent wonkery was
enough to win power inMedellín. Win
ning over the rest of thecountryseems to
require a little more pizazz.nFrom deadly heights
Medellín, Colombia, homicides per 100,000 peopleSources:MedellínSecuritySecretariat;“Homicidescenarios in
Medellín(Colombia)between1990-00”,byM.Cardonaet al.;
ChicagoPoliceDepartment4003002001000
2115100520009590851980Chicago, USDivinationShe sells seer shells
M
ãe carmemhas long been in conver
sation with the orixás, AfroBrazilian
deities who embody the forces of nature.
They dance easily into her thoughts and
her dreams. But communing on behalf of
others takes work. In a room on the out
skirts of Salvador, on Brazil’s northeastern
coast, she takes out 16 cowrie shells—
shaped like coffee beans, creamcoloured,
with a seam of serrated teeth. She shakes
them, murmuring incantations in Yoruba,
a west African language, then rattles them
onto the board. Oxumarê, the god of rain
bows, rattles rain upon the roof in unison.
Brazilians who want answers often turn
to jogo de búzios, the throwing of shells. Ad
verts for shellbased prophecy plaster
lampposts; shellshaking soothsayers set
up stalls in malls. Adepts are pressed for
predictions ahead of elections or football
games—and consulted in private by partic
ipants. The 256 ways that the 16 shells can
fall, each either open or closed, are read to
diagnose and solve any problem.
Some Brazilians lampoon the practice.
In February Globo, Brazil’s biggest broad
caster, was fined for airing a comedysketch about “Cãodomblé”, a shellreading
golden retriever. Cãodombléis a play on
cão, or dog, and Candomblé, the biggest
AfroBrazilian religion. That hints at the
racially tinged distaste for such traditions
among some Brazilians, which persistsS ALVADOR
The mystic art of shell-throwing thrives in a changing BrazilShake, rattle and read