46 Middle East & Africa The Economist May 21st 2022
D
oesreportinga crimemakeyou
an accomplice to it? If the crime is
rebellion in Ethiopia, then the answer
is yes. That, at least, appears to have
been the logic of Ethiopian officials
when they arrested Amir Aman, a jour
nalist working for the Associated Press,
an American news agency, last year.
Amir had interviewed members of the
Oromo Liberation Army. For this he
spent 125 days behind bars. State tele
vision accused him and his colleagues
of “promoting” terrorists. If found
guilty they could face 15 years in prison.
Just a few years ago Abiy Ahmed,
Ethiopia’s prime minister, seemed to be
ushering in a more hopeful era for
journalists in a country notorious for
illtreating them. In 2019, a year after he
took office, Abiy boasted that there were
no reporters behind bars for the first
time in over a decade. He hosted World
Press Freedom Day and declared an
“unwavering commitment” to free
expression. He lifted blocks on hun
dreds of websites and television chan
nels. A blossoming of new media out
lets followed. Yet last year Ethiopia was
ranked among the worst jailers of jour
nalists in Africa, trumped only by Egypt
and Eritrea, the gulag state next door.
Since the start of a civil war 19
months ago, at least 44 Ethiopian jour
nalists have been arrested or detained.
The most recent was Gobez Sisay, who
was abducted from his home on May
1st. Others, such as Lucy Kassa, who was
beaten by security agents last year, have
been hounded out of the country. For
eign journalists have been expelled.
Among these is Tom Gardner, The Econ-
omist’s correspondent, who was also
beaten by police while covering the war
last year. Ethiopian authorities, accus
ing him of following a “mistaken ap
proach” to reporting, withdrew his
media accreditation on May 13th and
soon after gave him 48 hours to leave
the country. His “mistake” appears to be
that he reported accurately on the war,
and on atrocities by both sides.
Local reporters describe a climate of
fear. “For weeks I couldn’t even trust my
shadow,” says an Ethiopian freelance
journalist who was arrested and beaten
by police. These days he mostly writes
anonymously and avoids going out in
public. “The government has its own
definition of a journalist,” he explains.
“Whoever goes against it is not one.”
FreespeechinEthiopia
Gagged
N AIROBI
Areturn to repression
Lebanon
Shake-up and stasis
T
herewassomethingforeveryonein
theoutcomeofLebanon’sgeneralelec
tion—exceptfora clearoutcome.Therul
ingelitelostsomesymbolicracesbutkept
itsgriponpower.Votersplumpedforcan
didateswhoranona platformofchange.
Onewinningcandidateproudlydeclared
thathehadnoplatformatall.
Many Lebanese were unenthusiastic
abouttheballotonMay15th.Just41%of
votersresidentinthecountrybotheredto
showup,downsixpointsfrom 2018 (turn
out washigher inthe diaspora). It was
plaguedbyirregularities,frompollingcen
tresthatlackedpensandballotpapersto
piles of votes that mysteriously disap
peared.Eventallyingtheresultsishard,
sincesomeofthecandidateswhoranas
independentsinfacthaveclosetiestothe
country’slongstandingsectarianparties.
Still,twothingsareclear.First,thealli
anceledbyHizbullah,thepowerfulShia
militiacumpoliticalparty,haslostitsma
jority.Second,anunprecedentednumber
of genuine independents did indeed win
seats. Both signal the voters’ deep anger di
rected at the leaders who plunged Lebanon
into the worst economic crisis in its histo
ry, even including the devastation caused
by its civil war from 1975 to 1990. In the
short term, however, neither development
may mean dramatic change.
Hizbullah won 13 seats, up one from last
time, but says its camp in parliament has
just 61 seats, four short of a majority. Its
main Christian ally, the Free Patriotic
Movement (fpm), did poorly compared
with last time. The Christian vote instead
seems to have tilted toward the Lebanese
Forces, led by Samir Geagea, an exwarlord.
That will please Hizbullah’s critics in
Lebanon and the wider Arab world. But its
opponents do not have a clear majority ei
ther—and even if they did, the “Party of
God” will not relinquish its weapons sim
ply because voters ask it to. Some treated
the poll as a referendum on Hizbullah, yet
the hung parliament it produced can do lit
tle to rein in a group that assassinates crit
ics and outguns the official army.
Others saw a chance to throw out the
whole ruling class. They had much to be
angry about. The Lebanese pound, once re
liably pegged to the dollar, is all but worth
less. gdphas dropped by 58% since 2019. A
third of the labour force is jobless.
But the electoral law was rigged in fa
vour of incumbent parties and the opposi
tionwasdivided.Beforethevotemany ac
tivists said they would count four or five
extra opposition seats won as a victory.
They did far better. True independents won
a dozen seats, 10% of the total. That is
something to cheer, even if much of parlia
ment is still held by warlords and thieves.
Their most pressing issue is Lebanon’s
economic collapse. Tens of thousands of
people have left, from entrepreneurs de
camping for Dubai to the poor boarding
rickety boats for Cyprus. Those who re
main are barely surviving. Parliament
must agree on a deal with the imf, clean up
insolvent banks and restructure public
debt estimated at 360% of gdp.
The old guard caused the crisis. They
looted billions from the treasury and have
dubious ties to banks that took part in a
disastrous staterun Ponzi scheme. The
newcomers, meanwhile, were vague about
their views. Among the opposition blocs, a
centreleft party that fielded dozens of can
didates had the closest thing to a coherent
economic platform. It lost every race.
Even without a hung parliament, it usu
ally takes months to form a government.
Lawmakers must also select a new head of
state to replace Michel Aoun, the outgoing
president and founder of the fpm, whose
term ends in October. That may add to the
delay. Changing a corrupt, clubby system is
not the work of oneelection. It takes years,
if not decades. Lebanon, alas, does not
have that much time.n
D UBAI
A shock election result may not bring the change voters desperately want
Geagea emerges from the shadows